A better answer for Ken Decker

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I feel that Ken Decker deserves a better response that I afforded him in his thread Y2K and the Doomsayer Predisposition. And, being the egotist that I am, I figured that it would receive a wider audience here, as a new thread. Hopefully some of the other suckers will feel compelled to add their comments as well.

After much reflection and soul searching I have come to the following conclusions as to why I was Sucked-in by Y2K;

1) I am not overly thrilled by the current state of affairs in the modern world. I see our freedoms being flushed away by power greedy politicians while the masses are content with Bread and circuses. I am also not overly optimistic about the short-term chances for this trend to reverse itself, while refusing to give up hope completely. Perhaps a sub-conscience belief that Y2K would change things caused my initial buy in to the hype.

2) I am not a techie. I bought my first PC at about the same time I learned of Y2K. Other more knowledgeable experts were divided as to the likely outcome, and I was highly influenced by Yourdon and DeJager.

3) I enjoy reading about history, and know that historical events have in most cases blind-sided the majority of people involved. I also know that many times a vocal few have tried to warn the rest of the population with little success. In my ego driven world, I imagined myself as one of these insiders.

4) Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt.

One thing that I am glad about is my decision not to go the mega-prep route, 95% of the things I bought for Y2K were everyday items that will be used anyway, and I in fact enjoyed a good savings by buying in bulk while things were on sale. A few other things such as my water filter, generator, and hurricane lamps are items that are used occasionally around here, and they may come in very handy some day should the big one (hurricane) finally get us. Floyd gave me a good scare last year, missing us by about 100 miles off the coast, not a big distance.

Any others care to chime in?

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), March 10, 2000


DITTO uncle deedah...I can 'honestly' say that I relate to all of your reasons...you may remember when I didnt even know what the refresh button was for??? LOL. I did have a cellar full of food, spent over 700.00 bringing my sister and her children here in Dec to keep them from harm and all other things...so glad i didnt buy the pakage food for over 2,000.00. Needless to say, the kero heater is coming in handy as is the stored kerosene and gasoline. I also have 2 bikes now, and from the looks of things will be riding shortly...So glad to see you here, and I ALWAYS valued your humor and your imput. As for the buying in bulk, it IS a great way to save money and I can honestly say, I WILL NEVER run out of Toilet paper or paper towels...Now, for a question,,,,do you still buy in bulk??? I believe once started it is addictive....

-- consumer (shh@aol.com), March 10, 2000.

Yes I do. When it goes on sale I buy enough to carry me through to the next sale.

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), March 10, 2000.

Greetings Unk,

I couldn't have written my feelings or circumstances better myself. #1. DITTO




I didn't get the generator or the water filter though. Being in the desert is a lot different than being 100 miles from the last HURRICANE. I like being at 5000' above sea level...: )

Good to see you are still around Deedah.

Keep your powder dry.

chasin' the cat...

The Dog

-- The Dog (dogdesert@hotmail.com), March 10, 2000.

Lotsa dittoes here too. Glad I didn't go overboard on preps, but I think being forced to ponder such possible consequences will prepare me for any disasters whatever the cause. A lot of realities struck home concerning the fragility of many of the systems we take for granted. Wish I had stocked up on beano!!

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), March 10, 2000.

Hey Dog

Welcome home,glad to see you mosyin' round,find a shady spot and relax.

-- capnfun (capnfun1@excite.com), March 10, 2000.

Ahh Unc, Glad you said all my reasons so now I don't have to type so much.

I too don't mind having the bulk food. Gald I didn't buy MRE's, or gas fridge though, but we're really glad to have the gasoline. But we lost lots of money by getting out of the stock market at the wrong time and that stings quite a bit still.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), March 10, 2000.


My biggest regret was NOT buying a generator. I was going to pre-rollover, but figured the prices would drop after people returned them post rollover. However, the prices have gone UP.

Oh well, don't *really* need one anyway, just thought it'd be nice to have.


-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.cam), March 10, 2000.

gilda -

Had you made money when you got out of the market? If so, you did fine. The doors to that particular casino are a lot narrower than people realize. When the smoke starts, lots of people are going to get hurt.

The Contrarian

Options in the mania... I received some email asking what I think folks are supposed to do in this environment, given the fact that I can't give anyone specific advice. It seems pretty clear: We're in the blow-off to the mania and you basically have three choices: a) you can get out, stay out and not get caught in what comes next, b) you can try to participate and think you'll be clever enough to get out, or c) you can find some middle ground and get out with some portion of your funds - the more, the better, in my opinion - and try to speculate with some. But one thing is a virtual certainty: when the worm turns, it will be too late. There is not going to be any back door when this spike high reverses. So folks have to decide what to do...

I ain't nohow smart enough to time the market, so my money is now safely parked in some very boring and rock-solid investments (money markets and suchlike). I've already seen some locals get a bit green around the gills just because local hero Qualcomm peaked just after the New Year and has lost 25% since then; they must have taken out 2nds or signature loans to buy the stock in Jan. "Bulls make money; bears make money; pigs get slaughtered."

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), March 10, 2000.

If a tornado were headed straight for your house, and you made preparations, boarded the windows, stocked some food, water and candles, and the tornado went around you, leaving your life in tact, would you feel "suckered"? I didn't think so.

You pay for homeowners insurance, are you dissapointed when your house doesn't burn down? You pay for vehicle insurance, are you disappointed that you didn't get in a wreck? Even though you bought the insurance? I didn't think so.

Same with a little reasonable preparation, in case there were some "date sensitive problems" at rollover.

Whether there would be problems with the computers at rollover, was anybody's guess. The experts couldn't agree. There were no reliable trial runs, from which to accurately judge. No one forced anybody to do anything, and we all possess free will and the right to make our own decisions, regarding what (if any) preparations we might have secured. To hold someone else responsible for whatever decisions we might have made, is to say that we were not of the frame of mind to decide for ourselves.

We didn't didn't go into debt with preparations, or compromise any aspect of our lives in doing some preparing. We have added to the quality of our lives, by lightening financial overhead, and learning to be a little more self sufficient.

The actual savings are pretty noticeable too. By buying in larger quantities, we actually saved money!

-- suzy (suzy@nowhere.com), March 10, 2000.

Suzy I don't hold anyone resposible for my FUD silliness. But I do smell a noticeable stench of something not quite right, and I'm not alone. How knowledgeable IT experts, especially those who have been in this business from way back when, and wrote code, could be so utterly and completely wrong is unbelievable.

As one editor said, "If the facts and logic were correct, why didn't they play out as expected?"

And even if I hadn't bought a bean, or made one prep, after all the hype about disaster, I would still be asking. "Why were so many so wrong?" Obviously those who said they knew, didn't know what they were talking about. Or as SRB said on another post, "Its time that many here came to grips with the very real fact MOST of Y2K was a freaking HOAX." And believe me there were plenty that said that; again it was my choice not to believe those who were right.

I'm glad you're happy with your decision, and I don't regret most of my preps. But even if I hadn't lost a dime, or bought one thing I would still feel like a SUCKER. And comparing this to insurance is hardly a comparison at all.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), March 10, 2000.

Hi Gilda, you are right in that "there is a funny smell" about the whole Y2K thing. Either a lot of "computer experts" really missed this one, or they tried to pull a slick on on the American public and its corporations. Maybe when the smoke finally clears, we'll find out who let off all the stink bombs!

-- suzy (suzy@nowhere.com), March 10, 2000.


Thoughtful answer O most buffed one. Mostly, I was just wondering out loud about possible common traits in the pessimist community. My curiousity was confirmed by my attendance at the Northern Virginia Y2K gathering. It was a was a group of very gracious folks... white, middle class, conservative, not unlike the average church picnic though with no children. Certainly, many of the pessimists were intelligent and imaginative. Y2K seemed to resonate... as if they half-expected some sort of meltdown long before the computer problem. And many seemed quite anxious for a different life. Oh, I think some were just acting to keep family and friends safe... but it became almost an alternative lifestyle for others. Of course, I'm the guy who wonders about the people who dress up in Star Trek outfits.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), March 10, 2000.

I agree that something stinks as well, Gilda and Suzy but we may be teetering on the border of...jumpin' jehosophat..I hate to say it...a conspiracy theory...? and that would put us in another class altogether.

-- Ma Kettle (mom@home.com), March 11, 2000.

Ma Kettle, got a few more details?

-- suzy (suzy@nowhere.com), March 11, 2000.

In Answer to the original question regarding common traits:

In reading many of the posts there appears to be a common thread of wanting a simpler life style, one that allows US some measure of control.

I am not sure if our bodies and souls are designed for the constantly changing stressers of this day and age, and wonder if there was an underlying desire to return to the simplicity of life known by our great grandparents. A chance to jump off the merri-go-round?

As a child in the early 50's I remember older relatives secretly worrying about when the "communists were going to take over." One day I heard someone say "where there's missery and pain, there's money to be made!" That statement says it all!

In looking back at the events of "y2k, there were a LOT of motives by a lot of different people. You had the "they've got missery - lets make money" people in there stirring the pot. The people who thought they were experts and miscalculated. The outright convicted, that Y2K would be the end. And those of us who saw an opportunity and motivation to take greater control of our lives.

Personally, I am glad that I have had the experience of going through the millenium change (and that there were no major problems to date). It was a chance to examine life style and make some positive changes for the future. Being a little better prepared for life provides a wonderful sense of security.

-- suzy (suzy@nowhere.com), March 11, 2000.

Suzy, "Either a lot of computer experts really missed this one,or they tried to pull a slick on on the American public and its corporations." made me think of the definition of conspiracy, an evil, unlawful treacherous or surreptious plan formulated in secret by two or more persons;plot. and your reference to the computer experts as a group. My comment was referring to that remark and that thought on my part and also because it has been my experience on this forum that if one mentions any speculation as to motive as cause for any giant FUBAR by any group or individuals, in this case the Y2k thing, the roaches come out of the woodwork and start throwing the conspiracy theorist label to discredit one's opinion. Does that help?

-- Ma Kettle (mom@home.com), March 11, 2000.

Hi Ma Kettle: Boy do we think a lot alike!

-- suzy (suzy@nowhere.com), March 11, 2000.

Suzy and MaKettle, I'm not much into conspiracy theories, but this one is really tweaking my interest. It's just so astonishing that nothing really severe happened, and especially in third world countries that were supposed to be toast, according to predictions.

And I'd begun to simplify my life before I heard of Y2K. I've made a garden the last three years, since I retired, and I've canned some of the stuff we raised. We're moving to a smaller, easier to care for house, and that part I really like.

It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Probably in a year or so we can all kick back and watch the big Y2K Conspiracy Bubble unfold on Discovery, A&E or 60 Min.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), March 11, 2000.

OK--I got sidetracked and forgot to address Uncle Deedah's post. Here's another "sucker's" comments. Both the husband and I are not techopeople--enduser's, my husband being the chief of our little corner of the big technoworld. I do more surfing and he does the the maintenance and troubleshooting. We didn't have the technical knowledge or background to understand how Y2k could NOT have some type of repercussion, so we assumed, at the least, that it would impact us economically in some fashion if we didn't get accidentally nuked. Both of us are college educated individuals, conservative non-Christians, and parents of small children and old enough to remember the last recession from a teenage perspective. We got seriously alarmed (late 98) initially and started buying extra food , another shotgun, ammo and started reading as much as we could off the Internet, including Ed Yourdon, TB2000, Yardeni, Senate Reports, and whatever we could fine. And then waited for those "Red Flag" dates. As time went by, those red flag days came and went. By fall of 99, we'd tempered our FUD to speculations of maybe up to a 3, if no big Defense snafu blasted us out of our humble bean home in the burb. We still felt that might be a possibility with all the crap Bill and his buddies had stirred up in the world. We had assessed our physical situation and location during the first few months of 99 and decided that we did not have the time nor money to make a move and incur more debt, and that we had more options being on familiar turf should TSHTF. ( At least we only had one 7-11 within in a square mile radius of our place.) We really did not want to have to endure the hardship that a self induced premature TEOTWAWKI scenario would have caused if the BIG BANG (now more closely related in our thinking to terrorism and an accidental nuclear FUBAR incident) did not occur and we had instead a recession and a 65+mile-one-way daily commute for ten acres and a well. What a life. ( Have nothing against ten acres and a well, plan to live on an acreage someday we hope.) So anyway, greatly relieved by the mild post Y2k fallout thus far, and give thanks to those that worked hard to repair the problems, or worked hard to cover them up so they didn't show!(grin) and we have lots of food, sundries, a decent water filter, and lots of ammo. Anyone need any strike anywhere matches??? Will trade for TP.

-- Ma Kettle (mom@home.com), March 12, 2000.

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