Is this "oil shortage" another scam by the good ol' boys? : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread

For those of you old enough to remember the early seventies, you know that we had a period of hugely inflating energy costs, brought about by an "oil shortage". I personally was suspicious from the start, considering that when I was working as an ARCO geologist, I learned (and it was no big secret) that the joint venture between ARCO and Texaco' Prudhoe Bay's first oil field already had PROVEN reserves of fifty years.

Later it seems to be generally accepted that the big oil companies staged the whole shortage as an excuse to raise profits. Billions per year was not enough, apparently.

So now we hear about another "shortage". Who do we believe? I, for one, am skeptical all over again.


-- jumpoff joe a.k.a. Al K. Lloyd (, March 09, 2000



Yep, I'm old enough to remember the 70's oil crunch. That's one of the reasons I'm not too excited with what I see yet. I remember not only gas at $1.50 in 1973 but not being able to get any for days at a time and then that odd-even rationing that went on for months.

I'm not sure I agree with the idea that it was a big hoax by the oil companies. The problem started with the Yom Kimpur war when the Arabs cut off all oil supplies to the countries supporting Israel. Once that happened,the rest of the scenario was almost inevitable. I'm not aying that oil companies didn't use the crisis to their advantage once it started , just that there was more behind it than a hoax.

As to what's happening today, I think there's a supply imbalance that's being corrected. My WAG is that we'll see oil prices stabilize and then start to slowly decline over the next several months.

-- Jim Cooke (, March 09, 2000.

Oil in the ground doesn't control prices. What counts is oil you can use. For that, the oil needs to be extracted and put into the pipeline. OPEC (read: the Saudis) can control the rate of extraction well enough to move the market.

It doesn't take a lot of shortfall in availability to move the market. Take Procter and Gamble for example. Due to higher oil prices, they are paying higher prices for their raw materials and as a result their profit margin is shrinking. But, they'd far rather pay the price and make their products, than stop making the products and go out of business. As long as demand in the end market (the consumption of gas, or plastic, or chemicals) is higher than the supply of extracted oil, then prices rise until demand slacks off.

As for "staging" the shortage, sure thing. OPEC is a cartel. They collude openly. No doubt the big oil companies have some leverage over OPEC, but as long as OPEC doesn't challenge their ability to profit, and usually enhances it, why would the oil companies mind? They may even have cooperated with the formation of OPEC. But you have to keep in mind that OPEC was patterned after the Texas Railroad Commission, that was the main price fixing instrument in the Texas oil patch in the decades before OPEC existed.

This stuff is old hat to big oil.

-- Brian McLaughlin (, March 09, 2000.

It's all J.R. Ewing's fault! That evil bastard.

-- Michael (123@456.789), March 09, 2000.

The only difference this time is it's not a ploy or a scam as You insinuate. I believe this time they just can't pump it, plain and simple. We'll ultimately see who is right the main stream idealists or those of us who dare to believe the unthinkable. I believe in retrospect we will find oil was not able to be pumped. The word around rollover was they set the clocks ahead. Well let's see who is right as the weeks and months unfold. I agree with Mr. Moody and Richard Maybury that we may see $60-$100 bbl. oil. Gee would that affect the Nasdaq or the Dow, duh. .


-- R.J.Morgan (, March 09, 2000.

Old ? lol Yep I remember HESS @ 13.9" a gal in the 60's. Congressional members were saying we didn't have the right to have cheap oil and that we should pay higher prices like in England. A few years laterWooo Embargo !!

One thing that always bothered me was that the (OPEC group) nationalized and took over all the oil in their countries. Only thing was that when CNN covered the Gulf War there was a BIG SHELL OIL in sign in the picture.

Nah it looks like this time it's 50/50. But if the OPEC group is dumb enough to let Clinton dictate to them how much they can charge they are bigger fools then we are.

just my 2"

-- awdragon (, March 09, 2000.

Jumpoff, The 50 year reserves counts on how long that field will last pumping a certain amount of oil from it a year. What they pump a day would be a minute percentage of what the whole USA consumes each day.THERE IS PLENTY OF OIL! There are some refinarie and production problems, BUT most are OK and are NOT running near capacity.They are getting good money for the oil, this is not being done for economic reasons, but political.

-- boo (, March 09, 2000.

Refining is a problem.

Gasoline - was by far the strongest element of U.S. markets, boosted by a rising awareness of likely tight supplies this summer. With stocks as of February 25 already 32 million barrels lower than a year ago, outages in gasoline-making units at several major refineries were even more troubling. NYMEX April futures briefly surpassed $1 per gallon, while Los Angeles CARB RFG spot prices neared $1.20. t_summary.html

-- - (, March 09, 2000.

Hang on it ain't gonna get better soon.


Story Filed: Thursday, March 09, 2000 4:11 PM EST

Washington, Mar 09, 2000 (EFE via COMTEX) -- The United States gasoline reserves have dropped to dangerously low levels, and the pump price of gasoline may reach 1.80 dollars per gallon, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced Thursday.

The EIA, which compiles and distributes statistical information for the U.S. Department of Energy, expects to see high refinery use rates over the summer that, coupled with "the precariously low gasoline stocks (...), leave little room for unexpected conditions," EIA petroleum division director John Cook said.

Over the past year, the per-barrel price of oil has risen from an average of 10 dollars per barrel to 34 dollars per barrel, pushing the average price of gasoline across the United States from 1.10 dollars per gallon to 1.60 dollars per gallon.

"Unplanned refinery outages, import delays or demand increases can create price surges above levels shown in the EIA forecast," Cook said, in testimony provided at a Congressional hearing.

U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he is optimistic about Iran's support of a joint Venezuelan-Saudi Arabian OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) proposal to increase oil production.

One year ago, OPEC, Mexico and Norway all agreed to cut crude oil production in an effort to push sagging global oil prices up. The agreement expires March 31, and four days before its expiration, the OPEC member nations will meet to debate maintaining oil production at current levels or to increase production.

"We are hopeful that prices will soon stabilize for oil entering the market," Richardson said, adding, "The issue now, is how much production will increase, and how soon the oil will begin to flow." EFE &sc=0#doc

-- - (, March 09, 2000.

YeA it is acSCAM!!! CPR knws all AND HE wil SV E uS FROM th sc
-- RIGHT On!@ (master@bat.xx), March 09, 2000.

$5 for gas in Hong kong

-- - (, March 09, 2000.

Average price of gas tops $1.50 for the first time

-- - (, March 09, 2000.

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