Tomorrow is 12/99/99: Any Predictions For Thursday and Friday? For Next Week : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread

I'm completely disoriented from the move of Timebomb 2000 (now more like TimeBomb SHELL 2000, unfortunately); the creation of this Spinoff Forum; and the stronger status of GICC -- so it's imposisble for me to remember where or who posted last week re: possible REMEDIATION BY STRIPPING THE YEAR DATA FIELD from certain embedded systems. As I understand this method, if it is used, it is eseentailly an effort to buy time -- approximately 68 days worth -- in which more intricate, permanent or time-consuming remediation that was not managed prior to rollover, could maybe be accomplished. Or maybe in which to duck and cover. The year-date data field is basically closed or inactivated, and the month data-field -- in this case December of 1999 -- is allowed to run out to the max for a two-digit field: 99.

Any of the pros on this board have personal experience with this? Do it, see it done, hear of it? Anyone have any idea ofoften this was or may have been done, or dare to make any predictions for what we might see happen tomorrow, Thursday and thereafter, from this sort of remediation.


-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), March 07, 2000


I predict that:

- Some disaster will occur either tomorrow, Thursday, or thereafter (probably during each period).

- An airline incident will occur either tomorrow, Thursday, or thereafter. Hawk will blame embedded chips for the incident. He will twist the words of anyone who questions him on it and/or call them a polly troll. He will point to the absence of proof of absence as proof of presence of a Y2k bug. Any proof of absence will be soundly rejected as part of a gubmint coverup.

- None of these disasters will be due to the passing of the 99th day of December 1999, nor any other Y2k bug in an embedded processor.

-- Mikey2k (, March 07, 2000.

Oh good grief!!!! Mikey, I thought maybe you'd become a casulaty of the "rollover" to the new forum. Don't you have ANYONE else to bother? It's like having something NASTY stuck to the bottom of my shoe .....

Now seriously, is there an IT PROFESSIONAL out there how can offer the FORUM something better than snide quips?


-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelay.tower), March 07, 2000.

You asked for a prediction. Which of the two of us is better at it?

-- Mikey2k (, March 07, 2000.

SH, you're thinking another Mike -Mikey2k - not this 'won't eat it' fella.

-- lisa (, March 07, 2000.

so it's imposisble for me to remember where or who posted last week re: possible REMEDIATION BY STRIPPING THE YEAR DATA FIELD from certain embedded systems.

Thread from old forum: RC's post and responses ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Read my introductory comments and then the latest news on the oil situation and the Y2K problems Several weeks ago I was hounded from this forum by certain gangster tactics of the Pollyanna "Gestapo" brigade. Why? Because, I persisted in the notion that Y2K was only just beginning and that my pre- rollover predictions might still be on target for the oil industry due to embeddeds problems. While I had felt that Jan 1 would likely see significant infrastructure disruptions, my predictions indicated that pre-rollover testing indicated that the embeddeds themselves might not act up until later, perhaps not until the end of January or early February. I expected cascading cross-defaults. Well folks, we got 'em in the oil industry, just like I suspected. I was right, the pollies were wrong. Of course, the brownshirt boys declared me wrong, vile and evil back in January. They after all were the only source of truth and knowledge. All others are insane doomers, even those of us who moderated in the middle. If you weren't a BITR guy, you were a doomer. Yeah, they engaged in alot of sweeping generalizations.

See my 3 part forecast just before rollover:

For my obstinance, I became the victim of a vicious smear campaign. The pollies involved were bound and determined to snuff out the voice of moderation (as I never was a "10" doomer). My full identity was revealed. There were attempts made to hack into various aspects of websites I was involved with. There were attempts to hack into my computer. It was really an attempt to force some of my sources out into the open perhaps? or to drive them away? The effort didn't succeed. I've had sources reporting back in finally, but I'd begun to wonder.

I had said that I was finished with posting at this website because no one should be subjected to the abuse that I went thru. This was indeed my intention. However, I've come across a lot of information since then regarding the oil situation that bears publicly posting here one final time as an update. I do this primarily because it seems that this forum may not be around much longer and some news needs to be presented regarding the current oil situation. Also, it is time for vindication to be declared, even if it is prior to any "official" confirmation from the gov. or media or the oil industry spokesmen themselves. I want the "doomers" who've been hounded and tormented by vile polly diatribes to know that they were indeed on the right track. They simply misjudged the absolute severity.

I WAS RIGHT about Oil and Y2K !

I was wrong on the immediate rollover effects in part because in hind sight it seems that some folks tried to change the rules. As I understand it, clocks were apparently rolled back in some cases by some companies. Year codes were reportedly stripped out in other cases. Apparently IT sources indicated to me that this resulted in a temporary reprieve for not just oil but other industries. The problems have been merely delayed and strung out so that not everyone goes down at the same time. Perhaps, it was a smart move in that it helped stave off a mass-collapse of infrastructure all at once. We may yet feel some very significant effects in a variety of industries but perhaps at an affordable price that prevents mass agony. Except for, OIL.

Oil's problems continue to mount, slowly but nonetheless painfully. Problems are showing in certain very key and critical oil fields around the world. Problems have surfaced in larger wells loaded with Large Embedded Systems (LSES). Some of the problems did NOT stop production immediately. I had thought from the discussions I'd had with others, that this would be the case. It did not. However, there have been significant "Downhole" problems. Yes, Factfinder disputes such a term as being non-existent. Frankly, I don't care what he thinks. I'm reporting the facts as given me by the folks doing the remediation. That is the term they use. One of the key downhole problems is that certain system designs in certain oil patches were malfunctioning in the element of separating and pumping various crude oil weights. In other words, some heavier weight crude oil is not able to be pumped out of a well due to the sensors being fried-out by date problems which didn't show up until the embedded's buffers filled up creating a cascading cross-default situation. The end result has been that certain aspects of downhole operation are incapable of allowing various grade-weights of crude to be pumped out of the hole and into the pipeline for transport. Reportedly only lighter weight crude has been pumpable. Now at a given point of time, if the heavier weights are not pumped, the lighter-weight crude supply 'runs dry'. Thus with each passing week, lesser amounts of lighter grades are coming out according to my sources. In other words, the well is able to produce less and less of even the lighter weight crude until eventually it runs dry until the heavier stuff that is blocking it (and is unpumpable) is removed. This seems to be the problem in some of the world's most important fields from the indications that I'm getting.

I cannot divulge the locations that have been reported to me. Key sources in non-US locations are very concerned for their lives. One source fears that (in his words) "they'll put a bullet in my brain." Some of these folks are in nations noted for being dangerous to Americans anyway. The most important thing is they do not want their problems made public. So, as a result, no locations will be posted. I can tell you that I was told of model numbers and part numbers as well as brands. As I understand it, key parts are on backorder from suppliers like Intel and Honeywell etc. Some folks are not expecting order fullfillment on those parts until perhaps April or May, if even then. Apparently the B/O's were supposedly to be fulfilled in Jan, then postponed til Feb, then March. Some pieces I guess have come in but others remain unfulfilled and necessary before installation of the all-new embedded systems can begin. YES, that's right, much of these oil well systems cannot be repaired! They must be replaced, according to my sources. If you could scrounge around some oil patches you might see wooden shipping crates with "Honeywell" stamped on them in oil co storage sheds near oil wells or perhaps out in the open in certain "drier" climates. If I understand correctly these are primarily older systems that as I understand it date back 15 to 20 years old. Either remediation didn't work or they never tried to fix it. (FOF?).

Furthermore, some wells, have avoided problems alltogether even though they're loaded with embeddeds. That is because the date codes year-digits were stripped out in the hopes of avoiding problems. So far, so good. However, one remediation IT source told me that remediation testing prior to rollover showed that such tactics resulted in the systems crashing 99 days into the year. (if I remember that number correctly, and I think I do). So we shall see. I can only rely on what the sources have told me.

Meanwhile, refining problems continue to plague the US gasoline market. Amoco lost a BIG refinery in Whiting, Indiana on Wednesday. St. Croix in the Carribean with its HUGE refinery also went down AGAIN. I think the Amoco plant had gone down before also, but I can't remember for sure. Bottom line (according to one source) is that perhaps half of all US refineries (or more) that use significant amounts of embedded process controls have had minor or significant production problems, slowdowns or outages or safety issues such as fires as a direct result of embeddeds failures...due to overflowing buffers and cascading cross-defaults. Some plants have been idled for weeks, others just crippled for weeks while others were rapidly fixed and back up in minimal time. Usually though, there have been repeated incidents. Sometimes several times within a day. In other words, just when they thought they were safe and out of the woods the systems shut down. Let me just say that there are some remediators out there that are apparently flying like crazy rushing from one problem to another across the USA fixing here, jumping on a plane and going to the next crisis and later perhaps returning to a prior "housecall" to once again perform IT CPR on a unit's system.

The same is applying to pipelines. Pipelines are also experiencing major problems especially where pipelines join together and then fan out again to various destinations. Sometimes those valves still function but the flow meters don't work so there is no way of knowing how much is flowing and in some cases other sensors don't know which grade of product is flowing. Again, this is what I'm being told.

Natural gas pipelines as well as Propane lines are also experiencing related date-rollover embeddeds problems. One company admitted in a PR release back in late January or early Feb that they were experiencing SCADA embeddeds processing problems. This forced them to declare a force majeure for I think for portions of Iowa. I believe this was for Propane deliveries, if I remember correctly.

So, according to sources the estimate is that perhaps somewhere between a third to a half (or more) of the US refineries with embeddeds have already experienced some embeddeds problems. Oddly enough it seems that about 20-30 non-embedded refineries have reported no problems. I know of about a dozen of these where things reportedly seem to be just peachy keen and no problems reported from key sources. SO...why is it that non-embedded refineries are not having these "odd" problems but the embedded systems refineries are having problems??? Hmmm? Oh, it's just a fluke, right? Yeah, sure! Of course, this is all just normal. Considering the fact that January is (and always was) one of the least troublesome times for problems in the oil industry (except during severe cold weather with power outages, etc). Much of January was mild tho' the N.E. USA started experiencing a cold snap in late January. Still these problems started showing up publicly and privately shortly after rollover and we saw some public exposure show up in the media as early as Jan 6th. Note that these problems for the most part have not been cataclysmic as we had feared. But I think there was at least one incident where a refinery fire did take one or two lives. For those families, the Y2K problem was indeed cataclysmic. Of course, the major mainstream TV networks never bother to talk about these problems nor does anyone even hint at a Y2K problem.

So what is the scoop? Well, boys and girls, Moms and Dads, Y2K has and is biting and your friendly folks in .gov and .oil and .media are not bothering to let you in on the secret. In fact, very few folks even in the oil biz know the full story. It's hard to know how much the gov knows. Frankly, even the experts aren't sure just how things will play out. Apparently they're still doing a lot of guessing themselves. If the major media (esp the TV networks) were doing their job we might at least get some decent truth out of the situation, but it seems the networks news outfits have just become propaganda outlets for the status quo.

And, from what I can tell, I don't think the experts out there even know just how widespread or severe the damage is just yet. One IT source tells me that in one significant case, they won't know till they replace one of the key central command points, which will take about 4 months after they get all the parts from Back Order. So when will that be? At least 4 months from now IF they got the missing parts now. If its not til April or May... add another 4 months. AND THEN they'll have a better idea of just how bad the situation really is in this one particular field of BIG oil wells. As I understand it, this scenario is playing in a lot of oil-patch theaters around the globe.

As it stands now, my predictions of a minimum of a 2% loss of crude oil for 3 to 6 months seems to be quite valid. My forecast gave percentages of likelihood for various loss levels. 2% + loss was my most likely forecast at the minimum. It could be that things will get much worse, perhaps 7% or 10% or more and still an outside shot of 30% loss. Who knows? We won't really know for a while. It really depends on how fast backorders get filled and new systems installed. ALSO...more ominous...

One IT source tells me that the quarterly rollover reports may do far more damage as the casualty infliction grows and mushrooms. This source is more worried now about reports due after July 1, especially a July 1 date is a year end report. This IT fellow says the WORST of the problems will not manifest until perhaps February. Their computer models indicate that Feb. of 2001 will be the peak month for if we thought we had problems now, just these little problems just continue to build up quietly in a slow cascading effect of further cross defaults.

Will all of that happen? I don't know. I'm only reporting what I've heard first hand from the source. I do know that most of my oil info is first, second or third hand and are not emails but actual verbal discussions in most cases. Could folks be blowing smoke at me? Perhaps it's possible in some cases, perhaps in the overseas stories. I have no way of cross-checking the overseas news. I do have cross- checks over here in the USA. These are reliable IMHO.

Now, of course, the Pollies will flame this post. They'll rant and rave about unnamed sources and dismiss this as more rumor-mongering. Well, the circumstantial evidence exists out in the establishment media to support what I'm relaying to you. See for yourself in regards to these refineries going down. Ditto on the pipelines. They were not declaring force majeures for nothing. Something significant caused these problems and it wasn't "mother nature" either. Nor was it OPEC. Nor was it some conspiracy by the major oil co's and neither was it overstressed systems due to poorly maintained equipment that was overly neglected from regular maintenance. No folks, its the stuff that has embeddeds. The old manual stuff is getting along just fine. Imagine that! Only the obstinate pollies would deny the reality that Y2K is indeed a lot more serious than a bump in the road.

The oil problems are not phoney attempts by the oil companies to gouge the public. The oil industry really is having problems. They're simply afraid to admit it's Y2K-related. Fear of lawsuits.

Y2K is at least a 5 and growing, in regards to oil and may well end up at a 7. I predicted it would be a 5 to a 7 and I predicted the current oil and gasoline price hikes along with some spot shortages to be likely for the first 3 to 6 months. I figured though that the better likelihood was that it would be mostly over by July... I may have been wrong. It may go on a lot longer after all. Is it the end of the world? NO. But then, I never said it would be. I just said the Pollies were wrong all along. I was right after all. They were wrong and even the doomers only missed on the extent of the problems. They were on the right track. That's something the pollies will NEVER admit to.

I have posted this because it is important that those who felt so belittled by the Polly crowing might now have some level of vindication. Also, I think there needs to be at least one forum left devoted to the Y2K issue and tracking the oil situation so that the truth will come out publicly. I hope Ed will keep at least one forum alive and dedicated to Y2K discussions at least as it may pertain to oil and perhaps too, the planes falling from the skies, a toasted IRS not to mention the banks don't seem to be out of the woods yet either with their mainframe problems. It's way too early to throw in the towel just when snowball is growing bigger and bigger.

I've returned one last time but I will not post further nor comment further. So don't expect me to respond as I will not do so. Meanwhile, I close this post by saying...

I was right. Anything to the right of BITR were right to at least a certain degree. But we'll never, ever get a polly admission nor apology from any of them. That's just the way the Polly's cracker crumbles, I guess.

And hang on to your preps, you may just need some of them anyway as inflation fighters if nothing else, cause surging oil prices will drive up inflation.

I was right afterall.

-- R.C. (, March 02, 2000

-- (, March 07, 2000.

-- (, March 07, 2000.

Repost from The Camp ... Shakey *did not* post this note here *REPOST*

================================= OT (Oil Topic) The Permian Basin ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Ladies and Gentlemen of the forum. Whilst I made my trip up to Albq. (and back) I paid close attention to the various oil feilds as I passd through them (rellay we are talkig about one oil feild extending from Artesia, N.M. to Lemesa nd Big Springs Texas to the east..Lets say bout 150 miles in width.Going up, I just paid attention to the activity I could see from the hiway ( I had/ have a lot more on my mind than oil at the moment).But after seeing the docs. And doing a little soul searching. I did think to stop and talk to some friends on my way back.My first and last surprise is the numbers ( I mean hundreds) of new pumps being installed! (you have seen them! See Sawing their little heart out pulling the oil up to the surface!).Almost to a pump...The old ones are standing idle (sometimes with a new pump off loaded on the ground beside them). And it appears (from the well servicing trucks out in the feilds) That the exhisting wells' are being serviced (their rods pulled from the hole and serviced). Before the new pump is installed.And there are several totally new tank farms being installed.( complete with their multiple 100,000 gallon reserve tanks).This is an old feild..Yet the investments are running into the hundreds of millions that I could see. And there is a lot of it I did not get out far enough in the feild (off the road) to see.It would appear ( IMHO) that TPTB have decided not to wait for FOF. But that they knew of the trouble (possibly coming) and are working feverishly to have as much new infrastructure in before the SHTF.And this is the deffinate impression I received from my friends when I talked with them about how things are going out in the "oil patch".I shall truely miss those guys, we had a lot of fun over the years; and yes. We put in a lot of good work togeather."As for me...I shall finish the Game"!Shakey

-- (, March 07, 2000.

Librarian -- My favorite statistic is this: Did you know that 57.45% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

And, my personal guess is that the numbers/facts/statistics in your post are in "made up on the spot" percentage.

-- E. H. Porter (E.H. Porter@just wondering.about it), March 07, 2000.

If I recall correctly, you had brought to the forum's attention that 02/02/2000 would be the first date since 08/28/888 (or something like that) to consist entirely of even digits. Given your established expertise in the field of dates with unusual properties, won't you accept SH's invitation to venture forth from the tree trunk of prognostication.

-- David L (, March 07, 2000.

"And, my personal guess is that the numbers/facts/statistics in your post are in "made up on the spot" percentage."

What a dillwad. RC wrote the post, not the Librarian. Learn to read.

-- (, March 07, 2000.

Here are a couple of questions on the thread subject to stimulate some thinking:

- What steps were necessary to prevent 12/31/99 from rolling over? Was this a manual operation or was it necessary to modify the software?

- What date comes after 12/99/99?

-- Mikey2k (, March 07, 2000.

What date comes after 12/99/99?


-- (, March 07, 2000.

My Dear Mr/Miz Link,

While I surely do not mind you transposing a posting of mine over to this forum. It would have been nice if you would have included the addendium I added on my test posting on the new page also LOL.

But to save you time, I had also noted 8 diesel driven condenser pumps (pipe line type) still on their skids loaded on the back of low boy carriers. And one diesel condenser pump/skid off loaded at a pump station on a pipe line...It would apear that the "patch" is ready for any kind of trouble, should it occur-

Hey Mikey! Man quit being so bitter sounding!! You do not have the "corner" on how (all) the systems were installed and calibrated old stick.

"As for me...I shall finish the Game"!


-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), March 07, 2000.

Sorry, Mr. Shakey, Sir. I did not see your post script in that EZ Board mess. I shall be more careful next time, but I felt that SH deserved a more decent reply than the shills and trolls were giving him/her.

Have a good night, Sir.

-- (, March 07, 2000.

HEy!! Wat to GO! Shakey, I missed your post over on the new board but will go hunt it up. Your hands-on EYEWITNESS account, unmediated, not hearsay, sounds all too familiar and much in the vein of -- even paralleling -- what we have heard from DD 1stLight. Can we get the material moved to the top, amplified, and established as a new thread on this board? many posteres may not make it to the bottom here to find your account. Let's hope.


-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), March 07, 2000.

My Dear Mikey,

The answear to your 12/99/99 would of course be 13/00/00 as I know you well remember my friend. The counter progresses forward in numerical order.LOL

"As for me...I shall finish the Game"!


-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), March 07, 2000.

My Dear Mikey,

The answear to your 12/99/99 would of course be 13/00/00 as I know you well remember my friend. The counter progresses forward in numerical order.LOL

"As for me...I shall finish the Game"!


-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), March 07, 2000.

Why would 13/00/00 follow 12/99/99?

Why not 13/01/99?

And Shakey, how would the date 12/99/99 be obtained, you being an expert in embedded processors in the oil industry?

-- Mike2yk (, March 08, 2000.

Greetings Mr/Ms Shakey, nice to come upon your post. you never were one to start up a thread and shout "Hells Bells!." Guess this means you have returned from your examinations "from Hell". Speed to you! (No LL from Hell here, (;-) to LL).

-- Instant (, March 08, 2000.

Groan. I have never heard of anything like this technique. In fact, I'm not quite sure even what it refers to or how it might work.

However, in the general case, if a system *needs* the date for some functional purpose, then it needs a valid date. Otherwise, why bother using a date at all, if it's meaningless? Most of the very few embedded systems that make any use of the date, don't *require* that date for their primary function, using it instead for ancillary purposes like logging. The device works fine even if the logging does not.

If the goal is to forget the actual date and simply try to prevent a field overflow, then float the month as well, until you reach 99/99/99. That gives you over 20 years to do something more sensible.

My prediction: no problems. Whatever this technique actually is, it must have taken some plain and fancy messing to make this change, so it's not a time bomb, it's got a high awareness factor! But the whole thing sounds like pure bafflegab to me.

-- Flint (, March 08, 2000.

Thanks Flint .....

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), March 08, 2000.

Flint, I'm sure R.C. and his secret sources were referring to the infamous "Beach Bug", or "hidden date" processing.

The system doesn't need the date, but the rollover of the date causes the crash.

Now, how they found that date processing to "strip" the year, when it was "hidden" to begin with.......

-- Hoff (, March 09, 2000.

My Gawwd, It took all that space to say, "I WAS RIGHT about Oil and Y2K!

-- gilda (, March 09, 2000.

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