An Answer To Trillion-Dollar Georgegreenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
Quotes taken from this discussion, below.
Y2K was/is still a trillion dollar problem yet to be solved. No solid, sustainable, unified theory of Y2K has yet been proposed and agreed upon, even by pollies.
No "unified theory" is needed because Y2K was never the problem imagined by Doomers. You might as well agitate for a "unified theory" of coffee production or sunspot activity. What you can't seem to understand is that the vast majority of people -- INCLUDING "TPTB" -- didn't care, don't care and NEVER cared. We face far more important problems on a daily basis.
The trillion dollar breakdown is ... Y2K litigation costs are still Y2K costs, whichever way we slice them.
This is ludicrous, and reminds me of Ciao Systems, Carl Jenkins and Co. digging to find every example of failure since January 1, 2000 and blaming it on Y2K by default unless there's solid evidence to the contrary.
Because Y2K was an utter non-event, people who lied, hyped and otherwise inflamed the thing into a money maker could get sued. This is a relatively small number of people and represent treasure that is a tiny fraction of the GDP ... which would not be the case in the converse Doomer scenario, under which consumers would have been suing everyone with gay abandon for failed deliveries, missed services, wrongful death, etc., etc. You're comparing a street fight to a nuclear war.
(2) Kappelman, Caper Jones and others agree that US spending was above $200 billion. Considering ...
Considering that they have been flat wrong and/or have blown everything else way out of proportion, I wouldn't believe them if they insisted it was Tuesday. I'd check a calendar to be sure. For pity's sake, haven't you learned ANYTHING yet? They have NO credibility now. Period.
Because of the sheer importance ...
There's your disconnect again. Most people -- INCLUDING "TPTB" -- did NOT consider Y2K to be a major problem. Programmers who were convinced of their indispensibility to society thought it was a major problem; so did those politicians whose ears they managed to blister. But the majority did NOT.
And of those, most who DID care were more concerned with public panic, because the problem was easily misunderstood and blown out of proportion by those who didn't (and who continue to not) understand how things actually work in the real world.
As proof of this, in many cases, banks and insurance companies spent more on public relations than on actual remediation!
shutdown for 2-3 days minimum, many 4 days (Dec.30-31 thru Jan 3-4), a truly unprecedented event.
The number of businesses who took this precaution was less than 1%. Further, it is NOT unprecedented. Businesses do it all the time if they're looking at a natural disaster, such as an approaching hurricane or winter storm. All the time.
Furthermore, powering up wasn't easy, and certainly not cheap ...
Since you don't know what you're talking about, skip this part ...
Obviously enough, TPTB , including ... did NOT think that Y2K would be (a) "benign" and (b) not pervasive ...
Again: they were concerned about the possibility of a public panic, whipped up by people like YOU who confused others. There were a few committed Doomers in "TPTB" category (primarily those of lower intelligence and/or with little or no practical, hands-on background), but the VAST majority have NEVER believed the Doom scenarios to any degree.
In plain English: right up to the end, the vast majority of people, from TPTB down to your much-maligned "sheeple"-in-the-streets, DIDN'T CARE. NEVER CARED. GET THE MESSAGE AND GET A LIFE.
-- You Bet (Youbet@youbet.net), March 07, 2000
You Bet, thanks for your critical post. I must also admit that I truly enjoy the "Trillion-Dollar George" thingy. Thanks again.
You Bet, the trillion dollar breakdown comes from:
(1) Y2K litigation costs are still Y2K costs, whichever way we slice them. Even if lawsuits are against consultants, IT vendors, etc., on the basis of having induced unnecessary Y2K remediation (gaining force everywhere, worldwide), it's still a Y2K cost, you can't get away from it. These lawsuits are already summing up several hundred million dollars,as you know. Furthermore, litigation costs have yet to show their truly ugly heads, both ways. That means that pending litigation could be for Y2K non-remediation or non-performance as well as Y2K unnecessary/excessive remediation. Let's not forget either the 90-day forced "truce" imposed by Y2K legislation. When litigation figures are finally known (maybe months or years from now) the one trillion figure could actually turn out to be short.
(2) Kappelman, Caper Jones and others agree that US spending was above $200 billion. Considering that 75% of world code was/is outside the US, that accounts for several hundred billion more. And, in the event that others did/spend little/nothing elsewhere in the world, it's still a multi-billion dollar problemo, as that spending wasn't needed apparently, even in those places that did it. And don't try to tell me that Italy, Russia and Germany are not IT rich countries. Actually, banks, insurance, social security everywhere are date dependant (think India, China, Brazil, Paraguay, etc.) and the date bug should have attacked them as well, right?
(3) Because of the sheer importance of Y2K, TPTB, plus every corporation in the world, every major industry in the world and, consequently every plant and SMB factory in the world, took the wise and mandatory decision to shutdown for 2-3 days minimum, many 4 days (Dec.30-31 thru Jan 3-4), a truly unprecedented event. Furthermore, powering up wasn't easy, and certainly not cheap. Out of spec production, lost production in still mills, refineries, etc., means low productivity, lost revenue, etc., etc. All of the above means at least 0.5% of worldwide GDP, probably much more. That's also several hundred billion dollars worth.
(4) Obviously enough, TPTB , including the CIA, the FBI, the US Congress, the Federal Reserve, every bank and insurance company in the world, every government in the world and, of course, the White House, did NOT think that Y2K would be (a) "benign" and (b) not pervasive, which you Flint have always been so sure of, despite the fact that you prepped up as much as you possibly could. So TPTB sponsored/supported multi-billion dollar spending, worldwide.
Take care, You Bet
-- George (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 07, 2000.
I started another thread (didn't see this one) answering George in more long-winded detail (as always). However, I can see that no matter WHAT you say to "George", he simply reposts the original nonsense. Nor is today the first time I've seen this material, verbatim.
However, I tried to take the thread in another direction. Apparently someone is spamming under George's name, since I *know* from private email that George is thoughtful and intelligent, even if confused. He isn't the type to spam or to utterly ignore salient comment.
-- Flint (email@example.com), March 07, 2000.
I agree, Flint. This is the third time I've read this from the presumed "George" poster. Perhaps it's time to toss him an E and ask if it's really him......um...better you than me.
-- Anita (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 07, 2000.