Would very much appreciate others' views on the situation with China and Taiwan.....also how come this is barely on the news at all, whereas it does seem to be a potentially very major story! Thanks

-- Annie (livenear@siter.com), March 04, 2000

Answers

Annie,

Remember, China has been threatening to invade Taiwan for about 50 years now. At some point, the boy crying wolf analogy comes into play. The media is also not too good at reporting "potential" major stories since there's no film at 11.

In real life, China does not have the military capability to invade and occupy Taiwan. China has almost no amphibious warfare capability and does not have the logistics to maintain an occupation army. She could certainly cause a lot of damage with missile and aircraft attacks but the Taiwanese military is no paper tiger either and can give is as good as it gets.

I think you're seeing a lot of posturing on both sides. Both China and Taiwan are economically and culturally linked and I assume that some some sort of reunification will take place as the Chinese political system moderates over time.

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), March 04, 2000.

China maybe doesn't have he military might to tromp on Taiwan, but Russia might, and Russia's economy might just need a cause for a war. Those two countries love to hate each other, and have a strange love/hate relationship. Wouldn't be surprised if the two countries are agreeing to tromp on the US! Russia has been doing some sabre rattling lately too.

-- suzy (suzy@nowhere.com), March 04, 2000.

Suzy,

At this point in time, Russia is even more toothless than China. Their military performance in Chechnya has been substandard to say the least. China has always been suspicious of Russia's intentions in Asia so I think an alliance is pretty unlikely.

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), March 05, 2000.

Jim, point well made. Maybe the paper lion is just doing a lot of puffing!

-- suzy (suzy@nowhere.com), March 05, 2000.

>> [...] I think an alliance is unlikely. <<

Well, stranger things have happened. The Stalin-Hitler alliance was not just unlikely; it was stunning. As was Nixon's little visit to Beijing to chat with Mao-Tse-Tung and Chou-En-Lai.

My only point is that perceived mutual benefits can sink a lot of mutual differences, if the two parties feel strong in their own positions. I do not think China and Russia feel the kind of confidence needed to get in bed together today. But "unlikely" is never a guarantee.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), March 05, 2000.

China leadership is becoming more fragile thus is very hard to predict. If Taiwan was to declare independence and sustain it, then most likely the leadership in the PRC will launch an attack regardless of potential disaster or risk potential political collapse. Remember, even in the eyes of moderate Chinese, the issue of Taiwan can bring mixed emotion. I plea that the US show restraint in selling weapons to Taiwan. Many advanced weapons system cannot be technically obsorbed by the PRC and would just further establish the xenophobic views of the leaders of the PRC. We must be sensitive to growing Taiwanese nationalisim, and also the needs of rising mainland China to ensure peace is ensured in future.

-- (dattran@ucdavis.edu), January 31, 2002.