I was right about oil and Y2K after all! And oil problems just get worse!

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Read my introductory comments and then the latest news on the oil situation and the Y2K problems

Several weeks ago I was hounded from this forum by certain gangster tactics of the Pollyanna "Gestapo" brigade. Why? Because, I persisted in the notion that Y2K was only just beginning and that my pre-rollover predictions might still be on target for the oil industry due to embeddeds problems. While I had felt that Jan 1 would likely see significant infrastructure disruptions, my predictions indicated that pre-rollover testing indicated that the embeddeds themselves might not act up until later, perhaps not until the end of January or early February. I expected cascading cross-defaults. Well folks, we got 'em in the oil industry, just like I suspected. I was right, the pollies were wrong. Of course, the brownshirt boys declared me wrong, vile and evil back in January. They after all were the only source of truth and knowledge. All others are insane doomers, even those of us who moderated in the middle. If you weren't a BITR guy, you were a doomer. Yeah, they engaged in alot of sweeping generalizations.

See my 3 part forecast just before rollover:

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00274x

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002752

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002755

For my obstinance, I became the victim of a vicious smear campaign. The pollies involved were bound and determined to snuff out the voice of moderation (as I never was a "10" doomer). My full identity was revealed. There were attempts made to hack into various aspects of websites I was involved with. There were attempts to hack into my computer. It was really an attempt to force some of my sources out into the open perhaps? or to drive them away? The effort didn't succeed. I've had sources reporting back in finally, but I'd begun to wonder.

I had said that I was finished with posting at this website because no one should be subjected to the abuse that I went thru. This was indeed my intention. However, I've come across a lot of information since then regarding the oil situation that bears publicly posting here one final time as an update. I do this primarily because it seems that this forum may not be around much longer and some news needs to be presented regarding the current oil situation. Also, it is time for vindication to be declared, even if it is prior to any "official" confirmation from the gov. or media or the oil industry spokesmen themselves. I want the "doomers" who've been hounded and tormented by vile polly diatribes to know that they were indeed on the right track. They simply misjudged the absolute severity.

I WAS RIGHT about Oil and Y2K !

I was wrong on the immediate rollover effects in part because in hind sight it seems that some folks tried to change the rules. As I understand it, clocks were apparently rolled back in some cases by some companies. Year codes were reportedly stripped out in other cases. Apparently IT sources indicated to me that this resulted in a temporary reprieve for not just oil but other industries. The problems have been merely delayed and strung out so that not everyone goes down at the same time. Perhaps, it was a smart move in that it helped stave off a mass-collapse of infrastructure all at once. We may yet feel some very significant effects in a variety of industries but perhaps at an affordable price that prevents mass agony. Except for, OIL.

Oil's problems continue to mount, slowly but nonetheless painfully. Problems are showing in certain very key and critical oil fields around the world. Problems have surfaced in larger wells loaded with Large Embedded Systems (LSES). Some of the problems did NOT stop production immediately. I had thought from the discussions I'd had with others, that this would be the case. It did not. However, there have been significant "Downhole" problems. Yes, Factfinder disputes such a term as being non-existent. Frankly, I don't care what he thinks. I'm reporting the facts as given me by the folks doing the remediation. That is the term they use. One of the key downhole problems is that certain system designs in certain oil patches were malfunctioning in the element of separating and pumping various crude oil weights. In other words, some heavier weight crude oil is not able to be pumped out of a well due to the sensors being fried-out by date problems which didn't show up until the embedded's buffers filled up creating a cascading cross-default situation. The end result has been that certain aspects of downhole operation are incapable of allowing various grade-weights of crude to be pumped out of the hole and into the pipeline for transport. Reportedly only lighter weight crude has been pumpable. Now at a given point of time, if the heavier weights are not pumped, the lighter-weight crude supply 'runs dry'. Thus with each passing week, lesser amounts of lighter grades are coming out according to my sources. In other words, the well is able to produce less and less of even the lighter weight crude until eventually it runs dry until the heavier stuff that is blocking it (and is unpumpable) is removed. This seems to be the problem in some of the world's most important fields from the indications that I'm getting.

I cannot divulge the locations that have been reported to me. Key sources in non-US locations are very concerned for their lives. One source fears that (in his words) "they'll put a bullet in my brain." Some of these folks are in nations noted for being dangerous to Americans anyway. The most important thing is they do not want their problems made public. So, as a result, no locations will be posted. I can tell you that I was told of model numbers and part numbers as well as brands. As I understand it, key parts are on backorder from suppliers like Intel and Honeywell etc. Some folks are not expecting order fullfillment on those parts until perhaps April or May, if even then. Apparently the B/O's were supposedly to be fulfilled in Jan, then postponed til Feb, then March. Some pieces I guess have come in but others remain unfulfilled and necessary before installation of the all-new embedded systems can begin. YES, that's right, much of these oil well systems cannot be repaired! They must be replaced, according to my sources. If you could scrounge around some oil patches you might see wooden shipping crates with "Honeywell" stamped on them in oil co storage sheds near oil wells or perhaps out in the open in certain "drier" climates. If I understand correctly these are primarily older systems that as I understand it date back 15 to 20 years old. Either remediation didn't work or they never tried to fix it. (FOF?).

Furthermore, some wells, have avoided problems alltogether even though they're loaded with embeddeds. That is because the date codes year-digits were stripped out in the hopes of avoiding problems. So far, so good. However, one remediation IT source told me that remediation testing prior to rollover showed that such tactics resulted in the systems crashing 99 days into the year. (if I remember that number correctly, and I think I do). So we shall see. I can only rely on what the sources have told me.

Meanwhile, refining problems continue to plague the US gasoline market. Amoco lost a BIG refinery in Whiting, Indiana on Wednesday. St. Croix in the Carribean with its HUGE refinery also went down AGAIN. I think the Amoco plant had gone down before also, but I can't remember for sure. Bottom line (according to one source) is that perhaps half of all US refineries (or more) that use significant amounts of embedded process controls have had minor or significant production problems, slowdowns or outages or safety issues such as fires as a direct result of embeddeds failures...due to overflowing buffers and cascading cross-defaults. Some plants have been idled for weeks, others just crippled for weeks while others were rapidly fixed and back up in minimal time. Usually though, there have been repeated incidents. Sometimes several times within a day. In other words, just when they thought they were safe and out of the woods the systems shut down. Let me just say that there are some remediators out there that are apparently flying like crazy rushing from one problem to another across the USA fixing here, jumping on a plane and going to the next crisis and later perhaps returning to a prior "housecall" to once again perform IT CPR on a unit's system.

The same is applying to pipelines. Pipelines are also experiencing major problems especially where pipelines join together and then fan out again to various destinations. Sometimes those valves still function but the flow meters don't work so there is no way of knowing how much is flowing and in some cases other sensors don't know which grade of product is flowing. Again, this is what I'm being told.

Natural gas pipelines as well as Propane lines are also experiencing related date-rollover embeddeds problems. One company admitted in a PR release back in late January or early Feb that they were experiencing SCADA embeddeds processing problems. This forced them to declare a force majeure for I think for portions of Iowa. I believe this was for Propane deliveries, if I remember correctly.

So, according to sources the estimate is that perhaps somewhere between a third to a half (or more) of the US refineries with embeddeds have already experienced some embeddeds problems. Oddly enough it seems that about 20-30 non-embedded refineries have reported no problems. I know of about a dozen of these where things reportedly seem to be just peachy keen and no problems reported from key sources. SO...why is it that non-embedded refineries are not having these "odd" problems but the embedded systems refineries are having problems??? Hmmm? Oh, it's just a fluke, right? Yeah, sure! Of course, this is all just normal. Considering the fact that January is (and always was) one of the least troublesome times for problems in the oil industry (except during severe cold weather with power outages, etc). Much of January was mild tho' the N.E. USA started experiencing a cold snap in late January. Still these problems started showing up publicly and privately shortly after rollover and we saw some public exposure show up in the media as early as Jan 6th. Note that these problems for the most part have not been cataclysmic as we had feared. But I think there was at least one incident where a refinery fire did take one or two lives. For those families, the Y2K problem was indeed cataclysmic. Of course, the major mainstream TV networks never bother to talk about these problems nor does anyone even hint at a Y2K problem.

So what is the scoop? Well, boys and girls, Moms and Dads, Y2K has and is biting and your friendly folks in .gov and .oil and .media are not bothering to let you in on the secret. In fact, very few folks even in the oil biz know the full story. It's hard to know how much the gov knows. Frankly, even the experts aren't sure just how things will play out. Apparently they're still doing a lot of guessing themselves. If the major media (esp the TV networks) were doing their job we might at least get some decent truth out of the situation, but it seems the networks news outfits have just become propaganda outlets for the status quo.

And, from what I can tell, I don't think the experts out there even know just how widespread or severe the damage is just yet. One IT source tells me that in one significant case, they won't know till they replace one of the key central command points, which will take about 4 months after they get all the parts from Back Order. So when will that be? At least 4 months from now IF they got the missing parts now. If its not til April or May... add another 4 months. AND THEN they'll have a better idea of just how bad the situation really is in this one particular field of BIG oil wells. As I understand it, this scenario is playing in a lot of oil-patch theaters around the globe.

As it stands now, my predictions of a minimum of a 2% loss of crude oil for 3 to 6 months seems to be quite valid. My forecast gave percentages of likelihood for various loss levels. 2% + loss was my most likely forecast at the minimum. It could be that things will get much worse, perhaps 7% or 10% or more and still an outside shot of 30% loss. Who knows? We won't really know for a while. It really depends on how fast backorders get filled and new systems installed. ALSO...more ominous...

One IT source tells me that the quarterly rollover reports may do far more damage as the casualty infliction grows and mushrooms. This source is more worried now about reports due after July 1, especially a July 1 date is a year end report. This IT fellow says the WORST of the problems will not manifest until perhaps February. Their computer models indicate that Feb. of 2001 will be the peak month for problems...so if we thought we had problems now, just wait...as these little problems just continue to build up quietly in a slow cascading effect of further cross defaults.

Will all of that happen? I don't know. I'm only reporting what I've heard first hand from the source. I do know that most of my oil info is first, second or third hand and are not emails but actual verbal discussions in most cases. Could folks be blowing smoke at me? Perhaps it's possible in some cases, perhaps in the overseas stories. I have no way of cross-checking the overseas news. I do have cross-checks over here in the USA. These are reliable IMHO.

Now, of course, the Pollies will flame this post. They'll rant and rave about unnamed sources and dismiss this as more rumor-mongering. Well, the circumstantial evidence exists out in the establishment media to support what I'm relaying to you. See for yourself in regards to these refineries going down. Ditto on the pipelines. They were not declaring force majeures for nothing. Something significant caused these problems and it wasn't "mother nature" either. Nor was it OPEC. Nor was it some conspiracy by the major oil co's and neither was it overstressed systems due to poorly maintained equipment that was overly neglected from regular maintenance. No folks, its the stuff that has embeddeds. The old manual stuff is getting along just fine. Imagine that! Only the obstinate pollies would deny the reality that Y2K is indeed a lot more serious than a bump in the road.

The oil problems are not phoney attempts by the oil companies to gouge the public. The oil industry really is having problems. They're simply afraid to admit it's Y2K-related. Fear of lawsuits.

Y2K is at least a 5 and growing, in regards to oil and may well end up at a 7. I predicted it would be a 5 to a 7 and I predicted the current oil and gasoline price hikes along with some spot shortages to be likely for the first 3 to 6 months. I figured though that the better likelihood was that it would be mostly over by July... I may have been wrong. It may go on a lot longer after all. Is it the end of the world? NO. But then, I never said it would be. I just said the Pollies were wrong all along. I was right after all. They were wrong and even the doomers only missed on the extent of the problems. They were on the right track. That's something the pollies will NEVER admit to.

I have posted this because it is important that those who felt so belittled by the Polly crowing might now have some level of vindication. Also, I think there needs to be at least one forum left devoted to the Y2K issue and tracking the oil situation so that the truth will come out publicly. I hope Ed will keep at least one forum alive and dedicated to Y2K discussions at least as it may pertain to oil and perhaps too, the planes falling from the skies, a toasted IRS not to mention the banks don't seem to be out of the woods yet either with their mainframe problems. It's way too early to throw in the towel just when snowball is growing bigger and bigger.

I've returned one last time but I will not post further nor comment further. So don't expect me to respond as I will not do so. Meanwhile, I close this post by saying...

I was right. Anything to the right of BITR were right to at least a certain degree. But we'll never, ever get a polly admission nor apology from any of them. That's just the way the Polly's cracker crumbles, I guess.

And hang on to your preps, you may just need some of them anyway as inflation fighters if nothing else, cause surging oil prices will drive up inflation.

I was right afterall.

-- R.C. (Iwas@right.com), March 02, 2000

Answers

Welcome back, RC! Good to have you here, be it short and sweet, as you suggest it might. I'll appreciate your thoughts and input, as I did in the past.

I would say that this community has settled in a bit since you were last here. Should be more receptive than during your last appearance. Hopefully...

Toss your pearls before us. (even if we oink a bit).

-- Chuck (cestin@aa.net), March 02, 2000.


R.C.,

Thank you for posting the latest information on oil. Yes, you were right about the embeds. I hope you will continue to keep us informed.

-- Maggie (song bird@iwon.com), March 02, 2000.


Welcome back R. C. and thank you for the excellent post. I think your figures are right on and probably conservative. I have seen numerous figures that production will be 82 or 85% of capacity. There are far too many pipes breaking including water lines. I don't think that water explodes but you never know for sure. Valves shutting improperly is a more logical explanation. You raise some interesting issues such as embedded problems after 99 days. Wow. I have switched both cars. I went from a Z-28 and a van to a V-6 and a Cavalier 4 banger. When the gas shortages can no longer be hidden, the Cavalier will be worth more than the fancy SUVs that cost $35 grand just like in 1974. I appreciate the heads up so I could do this. I also saw another ominous post on the Kitco forum to the effect that much of the oil in storage is actually in the pipelines and that the only way to get it out is to pump in water at the source end and in 90 days, you would have water coming out the refinery end which is not good. Shame on the Clinton Administration for not recognizing this portion of the Y2k issue. They lucked out on the power plants, banks, and the critical infrastructure at least temporarily but were dead wrong on the embeddeds. Perhaps Bruch Beach was right after all. We will see. The gas shortage, in my view, will probably trigger inflation, and a recession, depression or stagflation. We already have inflation. Whenever it appears, the figures are readjusted to show declining computer prices and increases in taxes are ignored, so that the people asleep at the switch are not disturbed. I hope you will post again in May and July to see if the year end problems surface as you expected. We may luck out and none of the incumbents in Government who hid these problems may be reelected because of the sorry state of the economy due to embedded system problems. It is a shame that innocent people will be hurt so badly because of these problems.

-- Moe (Moe@3stooges.gom), March 02, 2000.

All this and only a 2% drop? You could get the same results if nobody bothered to maintain the systems when oil was $12/barrel which is just what you would expect with companies concerned with their 'bottom line'. History has shown they will do it every time. However, we get a 20% drop, I will figure you are right on.

-- Richard C. Trochlil (trochlilbb@neumedia.net), March 02, 2000.

R.C. .... Thanks for coming back , "one more time".

I don't understand when the 99 day time element would begin . Most probably , it means from Jan. 1, 2000 . Regardless, maybe if that is wrong, you would be so kind as to let us know a few days after it hits, and to what extent it may further impact us that is not forseen at this time . With all the lies/coverups/half truths out there , your post is like a fresh breeze clearing away the fog on the ' misty highway of life ' . Eagle

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@FREEWWWEB.COM), March 02, 2000.



"But we'll never, ever get a polly admission nor apology from any of them."

Congratulations on your strategy of posting a claim to be "right" and then running from the responsibility of returning later to admit responsibility if you are proved incorrect. Another excellent face- saver is to pick a particular cyclical event (oil prices, e.g.), and attribute its spike to Y2K. It is also good thinking to pretend sources are special and secret, and companies are lying. ("The oil industry really is having problems. They're simply afraid to admit it's Y2K-related. Fear of lawsuits.")

I'm not too impressed with your self-congratulatory vindication. I have posted here before that I will publicly admit being wrong about Y2K if there is a macro effect on society related to it. But you sir, are simply grasping at straws; confused about how the world works, and desperate to salvage some personal credibility by arguing post hoc ergo propter hoc ("after the fact, therefore BECAUSE of the fact") that the current surge in oil prices is Y2K related.

If your perspective on doom is really correct, post your specific financial strategy based on it, and come back with your returns in three/six/twelve months, gaining the last satisfaction from the pollies by posting your gains here. In a word: put your money where your mouth is.

Be forewarned: your information is nonsense, your prognostications are just guesses, and I am unmoved by the extension of a doom date to Feb 2001, other than saving your face a little longer.

Doom may come to this world. It will not be Y2K related. If it comes it 20 years there will be those witless among us who say, "I TOLD you Y2K would hit Real Soon Now" and I will remain unimpressed.

"I was right afterall."

In the interim you sound like a little kid pouting.

-- I'mSo (lame@prepped.com), March 02, 2000.


R.C., welcome back! You WERE right. Many of us never doubted you would be. Good to hear from you again and thanks for the update as well as the new info.

Be sure to wear your tin-foil hat, it will protect you from falling aircraft. ;)

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), March 02, 2000.


RC, thank you so much for your update.

Something I consider to be a recent "development" on this forum is our introduction to the OPIS Alerts (www.opisnet.com) and Downstreamer's discussion group (http://server5.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.html). The OPIS Alerts have stressed that the rapidly rising gasoline prices are primarily a function of excessive refinery problems and that there is a substantial reduction in refinery capacity from previous years which will make it very difficult to catch up in product inventories. In fact, API and DOE agree that gasoline stocks are still slipping, at a time when they should be growing to meet warm weather demand.

And so many valve problems this year. Oil and valves were the two areas I expected to be the most impacted. Unlike the refinery data, I'm not aware of any baseline data on valve performance, but there have been a shocking number of pipeline explosions and releases.

RC, you have been missed. Take care, and do give us further updates if the urge strikes you!

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), March 02, 2000.


RC, having just read your nonsense, I have a few questions.

You said : The oil problems are not phoney attempts by the oil companies to gouge the public. The oil industry really is having problems. They're simply afraid to admit it's Y2K-related. Fear of lawsuits.

Who would be sued? and why?

You also said: If the major media (esp the TV networks) were doing their job we might at least get some decent truth out of the situation, but it seems the networks news outfits have just become propaganda outlets for the status quo.

Don't you think that freelance journalists would jump on this if there was a hint of any truth of y2k?

I think it has been proven that embedded chips have not been a problem, so why only in the oil industry?

You said you wouldn't respond, well that's just childish and defensive, especially after making such outragous statements.

Summing up: You were wrong, still are wrong and will never be right.

-- Mr.Sane (hhh@home.com), March 02, 2000.


ROFLMAO

Do you honestly think that those here who listened to rumors, opinions, unverifiable sources etc before the rollover and are not pleased with having publicly admitted to being wrong due to those reasons will sit here and take your hype hook line and sinker?

They do have some pride and the ones who have stood up and taken their crow are not going to watch you hatch the eggs for a new helping.

The old saying is true;

Fool me once, shame on you

Fool me twice, shame on me.

It is not embedded chips, you come dancing in here declairing that it is, acting like the same old non verifiable hype will be sucked up without question, is nothing more than insulting the people of this forum who have gone through the discomfort of trusting without proof one too many times already.

I for one give them enough credit to be insulted by your attitude that they should believe you without proof.

They allready heard all the hype you are spewing, the companies are lying, it's being covered up, you have sources you cannot disclose etc etc etc.

Also why should they believe you know more than all of those who work in these areas? Why should your web-surfing make you an "expert" over those who have the training and decades of experience?

This sounds like you think the people here are stupid or something.

Embedded chips... yea right!!! All of the areas where embedded chips were supposed to have problems and did not, but suddenly you know of ones that do. HEH!

You really waltzed in here and made one big fool out of yourself!

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), March 02, 2000.



RC,

Thanks for posting. Can any of your sources be persuaded to come forward and talk on the record, if true this is of Historical significance? If your allegations can not be supported with facts, figures, testimony under oath,than credibility suffers. Of the force majure or other disruptions have any law suits been filed for breach of contract? Will any companies admit to embedded problems in their 1st qtr finacial reports to shareholders? Evidence is needed to support allegations!

Hal,

Re: the 99 day time limit

I believe it was Paula Gordon who postulated pre-rollover that stripping the year fields from calculations would buy time until the two digit day field overflows. As in 12/31/99 to 12/31 so that 01/01/00 became 12/32... until 12/99 and then shut down or operate unpredictably. So 12/99/99 would be NEXT WEEK on March 8,2000 if my addition is correct and you allow for 2/29/00.

IMSO,

At this stage, I agree that skepticism in absense of evidence is healthy. I also believe objectivity is essential. I prepped because of the unknown variables, so far much is still unknown and may remain that way.

If not Y2K, what is hitting the oil patch, pipelines etc? It would seem possible to verify RC assertion that reported outages are at the highly automated facillities while the less automated runs are running satisfactorily. Since you have a such strong opposing position could you prove that one assertion false.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), March 02, 2000.


"Now, of course, the Pollies will flame this post."

Lately I've been reading Jeremiah. The pollies flamed him pretty viciously too. He didn't have a web site to hack, but they found some other nasty things to do, like throwing him into a well and leaving him to die, that sort of thing. But if you keep writing, some of us are still listening.

-- Markus Archus (apxov@mail.com), March 02, 2000.


Thanks, R.C., for the long post. One only has to look at prices for crude and unleaded to know we are having problems. I appreciate your assessment that the extent of the problems may well increase for many months ahead. Ignore the trolls and the flames. Keep posting, you are doing a very valuable service.

-- Les (holladayl@aol.com), March 02, 2000.

One other thought for Pollys and Doomers alike:

The recent US Senat Y2K Final Report outlined many more Y2K impacts in the US and Internationally than I havce seen as confirmed on this board or others. However, the Senate report only mentioned limited oilfield Y2K impacts in Nigeria and Indonesia as I recall (I could check but am pressed for time at the moment).

Lacking better evidence, I think Bennett and Dodd's report is the best substantiated listing of Y2K impacts to date. Which calls the question for better evidence supporting broad Y2K impacts in the oil industry.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), March 02, 2000.


Excuse me, but isn't the 99th day of the year April 8th, not March 8th?

For all the mistakes we have made about y2k, lets not mess up some simple arithmetic.

-- David Holladay (davidh@brailleplanet.org), March 02, 2000.



David, Hal's reference to 3/8 as the 99th day refers to it as 12/99/99, i.e. the 99th day starting from 12/1, not 1/1.

-- Markus Archus (apxov@mail.com), March 02, 2000.

RC-

You have still proven nothing, but then again, "nothing" is proof enough on this forum. Still flapping without providing any evidence. All we know is that oil prices are up and OPEC began restricting production last spring. I suppose now that if OPEC announces that production will be increased after their March 24 meeting, and prices subsequently go down, you will charge that the meeting was carefully orchestrated to coincide with repairs of oil production systems. Where are the infrastructure problems? Quit adjusting your theories in a feeble attempt to save face.

By the way, how is your website doing?

-- cjs (cjs@noemail.com), March 02, 2000.


Thanks, R.C. A true soldier who is concerned about his mates more than his own hide. Medal of Honor to you three time over for your work, Esprit de Corp and bravery under fire.

May God richly bless you for your concern for others. He sees and rewards those who do the right thing.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), March 02, 2000.


hey, welcome back. so glad to see you!!!! i think you were right (as much of an amateur as i am) yet it is interesting to see how slowly all of this is playing out.

-- tt (cuddluppy@aol.com), March 02, 2000.

Thanks R.C. for your input into this very important issue. The refinery problems are undeniable. The status of crude production will hopefully be truthfully revealed in the very near future. The serious lack of information forthcoming, especially in regards to the OPEC countries, can perhaps be attributed to but not limited to political, economic, and legal issues. I will be patiently awaiting.

-- NoJo (RSKeiper@aol.com), March 02, 2000.

HEy RC: I'm a pastor and I am interested in your research on BAbylonia (seriously) Please direct me to a location where I can study what you have come up with.

I received this email from a friend in Europe today. Moldava has run out of natural gas (from Russia). This is legitimate. **********************************

Dear friends,

Moldovans consider March 1st to be the first day of the spring. It is good to see the signs of revival in the nature and I think our people can find in God's creation more hope and comfort than in our government. As many of you probably heard, since last Friday (Feb. 25) Moldova is not receiving any natural gas from Russia. For the last few days the country was using up the gas that was left in the pipeline and this morning it all ran out. Since most people cook their food on gas stoves, you can imagine how difficult it is now to meet the most basic human needs. Also, the mayor announced that the city can no longer afford to provide heating in the apartments. We are fortunate that we still have electricity. Tomorrow the government will come to the Parliament to give a report on what they are doing in order to solve this critical situation. Our hope and prayers are that Moldovan people will start receiving gas as soon as possible. On the other hand there is still a conflict between the powers in Moldova. The Parliament dos not have and is not likely to form a governing majority. That means that the government does not have political support, which will make it very difficult to pass the budget.

I would like you ask you to keep us in your prayers. Please, pray for the government, that they could make the necessary agreements with Russia concerning natural gas. Also, pray for the Members of Parliament, that they would find consensus in the midst of party differences. Pray for our people who have lost all hope that things will ever improve.

Yours in Christ,

Valeriu Ghiletchi, M.P.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), March 02, 2000.


I never worried about planes falling out of the sky because if they had, the airlines would lose big money, ditto the banks, the grocery stores, the power companies etc. Money talks, it don't get caught short. Now oil wells could be a different deal. They don't pump to full capacity, the price just goes up and the industry loses no money. So 'no skin off their nose' if they have Y2K problems. However, there must have been well owners out there who figured this out, so their wells are just pumping that $30+ oil like mad making big bucks having forseen the problem and fixed it. If there are, that may be proof. If there are none, that we can only assume all oil people are stupid, or the problem could not be fixed or there is no Y2K problem to fix. As I said earlier, if there was a real problem, production would have fallen a lot farther than it did, IMHO. Never forget, it is in the interest of the producers not to have production until the monoply price of oil is reached. And I figure that is well over $30/barrel. Back in 1978 is was just over $30, it must be quite a bit higher now.

-- Richard C. Trochlil (trochlil@neumedia.net), March 02, 2000.

All you folks who are taking the position that there are no problems in the oil industry need to address the increasing OPIS alerts referencing refinery problems.

To bash RC without properly countering OPIS is to be spewing hot air, indeed what you are accusing RC of.

We're all waiting.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), March 02, 2000.


Ric is right, so is OR... You dont have to take THEIR word for it, see for yourselves! Write to and you will receive the latest email alerts from OPIS--I recieved 11 of them, yesterday alone!The OPIS alerts where supposed to stop on Feb1 st, but they have continued BECAUSE of the current Oil crisis.

OPIS doesnt give a darn about Y2K. They just care about the Oil situation and they dont mince words. We have had 6 "Force Majueres" declared during the last 2 months-That is UNTHINKABLE. Maybe one would have been declared, during a usual YEAR.

OPIS reports meter and brine problems are causing problems world- wide. And it doesnt begin or stop at OPECs door. You saw Richardson go to the Arabic countries last week to coax and threaten them into compliance--raise that production... Then you saw him meekly come back to the US and sound a warning that Oil production is in trouble. What does that tell you! Even during the 70s oil crisis, OPEC at its best couldnt muster any better than a 76% compliance rate with its stand. The current situation is NOT brought about from OPEC doing any saber rattling. If anything, they nicely promise to "try" to raise production, then you hear that they are scouring the world for production replacement parts. Even Iraq changed their stance, recently and instead of trading oil for food, they offered to trade oil for replacement parts. Does that ring a bell with anyone.

OPIS reports that current production has went down below 2%, world- wide. They also predict 2.00$ a gallon gasoline prices by summer and openly admit it could possibly reach 3.00$.

DONT take our word for it, subscribe to the OPIS reports and see how you feel reading each report. Only the facts.

-- Riverwn (Riverwn@aol.com), March 02, 2000.


My html tag didnt work.. Write to this address for the OPIS alerts- mailto:opisalerts@opisnet.com

-- Riverwn (Riverwn@aol.com), March 02, 2000.

OR,

Neat little trick you are trying to play there, reminds e of a lot just like it before the rollover. Your statement; All you folks who are taking the position that there are no problems in the oil industry need to address the increasing OPIS alerts referencing refinery problems.

Puts words in our mouths that we did NOT speak. No one said there were no problems in the oil industry. We are saying that the problems are not caused by Y2K, especially not caused by embedded chips with buffer overflow problems that had their clocks set back.

By the way, if they cannot be reached to be fixed, how were they reached to have their clocks set back?

Most of what he said was nothing more than throwing terms together that make no sense and are not physically possible.

Twisting our words around is such a simple, common ploy when logic is not possible to substantiate your arguement and is next to an admission of defeat.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), March 02, 2000.


Me: The sun is shining pollies.

Pollies: Prove it

Me: Its bright outside.

Pollies: Prove it

Me: You can feel the warmth on your face.

Pollies: Prove it

Me: Skip it, never mind, we're not here to entertain you.

R.C. Get the point? They are all a bunch of pinball wizards, deaf, dumb and blind. However the rest of us don't need any convincing but we do appreciate the update and extra news. I have read that refineries are dropping like flies and pipelines are blowing everywhere and the price of gas is skyrocketing. I'm completely satisfied with your predictions and all the others that predicted oil problems. Like I said in a previous post the numbers were off slightly. Y2K wasn't 10% after rollover, more like 2% and the rest gets spread out over time.

Thanks for your contribution once again but there is nothing you or I can do with the pinball wizards!

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), March 02, 2000.


Huh? All this scrambling for parts just proves my thesis that them boys let maintenance slide right along with the price of oil to keep their bottom line looking as good as it could. Now when they need to pump, they got to get their maintenance back up to speed. They spent a year+ letting it slide, might take quite a bit of time getting things back up. As for Iraq hustling, everybody knows that their infractructure is so far down, they have had trouble producing the small amount that they have been authorized. With $30+ oil, old Saddam has visions of selling $29+ oil out the back door. But first he will have to produce it.

-- Richard C. Trochlil (trochlilbb@neumedia.net), March 02, 2000.

Interesting to see the pollies come out in force yet again whenever their own world view is challenged. I notice that in all of their comments, not one, not ONE, has offered a reasonable counter- explanation for the continued problems in refineries or countered OR's point about the OPIS alerts and the incredible number of force majeures declared in the first two months of this year. These are NOT normal price fluctuations, as one attempted to claim. Nor can they be attributed to deferred maintenance -- otherwise we would see this sort of thng every time prices are low, and we haven't.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), March 02, 2000.

All right! I predicted the sun would no longer rise in the East, and I was right! The evil pollies smeared and slandered me. They called me a crackpot. They called me vile. They called me names!

But my sources are legion, and they now tell me that East is now a full 2% less than it was. This is a FACT! There is now LESS EAST than there used to be. Of COURSE they're keeping this a closely held secret, to the point where the government doesn't know about it, and even most astronomers haven't figured it out.

Sorry I can't tell you who my sources are, since if they were known they'd be shot in the head. I can't even tell you who would shoot them. Nor can I even tell you HOW this information was determined. If I did, this vital inside information would dry up and I could no longer learn the TRUTH about the diminishing EAST. But it will GET WORSE, oh yes it will.

But those who really understand, and even those who hounded and tormented me with nasty diatribes cannot deny the PROOF! On average, a full 50% of locations in the world have been COLDER THAN AVERAGE every day since January 1, while another 50% have been WARMER. This is a FACT! And this scenario is playing out ALL OVER THE WORLD. Furthermore, there has been NO EFFECT on all the places that never had any East to begin with! More PROOF!

No, I can't tell you exactly where these places are. But some of them are already being referred to as the NEAR EAST by those in the know.

I was right! I was right! The pollies were WRONG! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

------------------

Seriously, there may very well be some problems due explicitly to date mishandling by embedded software. But this is an extremely specific problem, in no way supported by claims of general trends in maintenance requirements. Allegations of nameless equipment operated by nameless companies, reported by anonymous sources, posted by someone pathetically desperate for vindication, can only be considered credible by someone equally pathetic. Isn't this *exactly* how we got y2k so wrong in the first place?

I emphasize here for the zealots -- any increase in breakdowns does not, *in and of itself*, indicate date mishandling by computer software. There is precisely equal support for the theory that these problems are caused by "Millennial Leprechauns". Please, people, let's base our conclusions on the data, rather than *assuming* the data must fit preconceptions. So far, we have not one iota of documented evidence for a date mishandling error.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 02, 2000.


Prices low and no effect on production? When is the last time we saw prices this low in constant $? 1964?

-- Richard C. Trochlil (trochlilbb@neumedia.net), March 02, 2000.

These are my real initials. RC, your reports and comment generated by your reports have been very important to my thinking. I applaud your courage. As a CPA I have seen my share of audit busts and deception by business, so I have no doubt that it is taking place here. I have so hoped you would comment further that I have committed serious time each day to searching for possible posts by you and others like you, probably more than you spent writing your post. I hope you accept this time committment as a tribute to the importance of your work, all conflict issues with abusive elements of our on-line society aside. I also am not surprised by attempts to hack your equipment and sites.

Zone Labs provides free software named Zone Alarm that provides further protection of your equipment and is said to make your computer invisible on the internet. Find them by search engine. Just by opening this thread to read, I was alerted that an attempt had been made to invade and identify my computer, which is unusual. I suggest that everyone consider Zone Alarm protection.

In the American Revolution only 1/3rd were Patriots, so I will end with a salute to you as a Patriot, who are ever a minority.

RH

-- RH (RH@courage.com), March 02, 2000.


Once more .."meter and brine" problems..FACT. What controls the meters..why the problems with brine. This is NOT rocket science, folks. If you can answer that with any reasonable intelligence, you will have the answer!

-- Riverwn (Riverwn@aol.com), March 02, 2000.

Thanks, Bill P. for the answer on the " 99th " day . Thought I had read all of Paula Gordon's posts. Must have missed that one . Eagle

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@FREEWWWEB.COM), March 02, 2000.

Heavens to Murgatroyd! Not cast crosscading-defaults!

-- (ohno@mr.bill), March 02, 2000.

RC, Thanks again for all your good information.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), March 02, 2000.

It would have been so easy for anyone who cared, and especially cherri and flint to ask one simple question:

"OK, what ARE the model numbers of the units that are having problems. E-mail them to me."

Then, they could toodle off to Honeywell and/or Intel with a quick phone call, inquiring about the availability of the part. If the vendor came back with a substantiated "Not a problem, got millions of 'em, and can ship by FexEx overnight," then we know that those who's feelings have been so bruised by RC's post are right.

Or, go get a statement from Honeywell that they have no backorders on equipment that is used extensively in the petroleum field. BTW, I've heard that from other sources. It may be that RC has too, and is just repeating it for our benefit, or it may be true. But, it's up to the recipient of the information to check it out, not to demand proof from the supplier. Do you people buy every stock your broker recommends, or do you think for yourselves?

Cherri, your insistance that a person who is reporting what he heard must use your terminolgy smacks of elitism. Perhaps you'd be so kind as to enlighten us unschooled peons as to exactly what has caused the very many problems that have been reported with pipelines, with refineries, and with propane and natural gas production. Go ahead, you can even use your PC terminolgy. I'd value a viable explanation more than the wording. So far, I've heard nothing from you that is viable. Just yelling at RC.

Neither of you can refute the facts that we are having oil problems over and above announced reductions in production by OPEC. Simply screaming, "you're wrong, you're pathetic, you don't know a thing," does two things. First, it convinces me you don't know what you're talking about.......you respond like puppets on a string, irrationally. Second, it adds nothing to the discussion.

And, lest you forget, RC did have his site hacked, his identity made public and was made the laughing stock of your crowd -- not for his views on oil, but for his religious beliefs. I'd be a bit miffed, too. You both have attempted to wage a vendetta against anyone who didn't bow down and accept your opinions. Cherri, especially tried to lord it over people for not believing her.

LOL, now she goes ballistic when RC does the same thing. Isn't it amazing how we hate it when we see our own most glaring faults in others?

Adios.

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), March 02, 2000.


WOW! R.C., your post even pulled Flint out of hiding, er, lurking! And Cherri too. And so many other pollies. What did Diane say about posts from .gov and .mil appearing?

Just the fact that all these polies appear so quickly tells me this board is monitered and from what I have seem the "louder" they "yeLL" the closer to the truth your post is.

Flint yelling about facts and Cherri yelling about logic. Flint who picks and chooses his "facts" and Cherri who is more logical than the famous Lady, but not by much. Why is it that pollies can't talk without character assination and use of ridicule?

-- Mr. Pinochle (pinochledd@aol.com), March 02, 2000.


RC,

Thank you for the informative post.

Pollies, (especially Cherri, Mr. Sane, and I'm So Lame)

Wake up! There is a problem with oil. I paid 12 cents per gallon more for the same grade of gas at the same station than I did one week ago. If you were honest, I would suspect you would admit to a similar experience.

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), March 02, 2000.


Cherri,

You said; "By the way, if they cannot be reached to be fixed, how were they reached to have their clocks set back?"

I am not trying to slam you here, but I would recommend you might want to do a little research on how these embedded chips really work. I do not think you understand there real function/how they work and frankly I do not have time to teach you.

RC, Great Post!

-- SANman (russell545@aol.com), March 02, 2000.


Richard C. Trochlil and Flint are making the most sense on this thread.

I feel there was plenty of room for speculation of potential problems prior to the rollover. There isn't now. There were plenty of reports from companies experiencing/fixing Y2k problems before the rollover. That we aren't hearing reports now suggests to me that Y2k glitches don't exist, rather than they are being covered up.

There is no longer an excuse for not coming up with supporting data.

-- david moore (davidmoore01@excite.com), March 02, 2000.


In all this foo-gas regarding RC and whatever, there is only one thing that really counts: The Price of Oil.

Everything else is BS.

D. Crosby once said "You can't bullshit the ocean...It's not even listening." The price of oil cannot be bullshitted either. No matter what anyone says, crude popped through $32/barrel, and is currently well over $31. That is the only thing that really matters. And we burn an ocean of oil every day.

And regardless of what the bubbleheads on CNBC say, we are still a petroleum economy, and a petroleum civilization.

I do not know if RC is right or wrong about what is happening in the oil business, but the price of oil says that things are not what they were, and they don't seem to have any intentions of going back there.

Be ready for major price disruptions, at the least.

And someday we will know if RC was really right, or just lucky.

Harvey never mind the BS, just watch the price...

-- Harvey Ballwhanger (harvey@whang.com), March 02, 2000.


RC,

Thank you for your insights into the petroleum industry's current situation. It's been a long time since you've graced the forum and if all your sources have provided you with correct information, it will have been worth the wait.

Much of what you've provided could be seen as vindicating a lot of "educated guesses" on the part of us non-oil indutry types. As much as I strive to be correct, I do hope both you and I are wrong "in a doomer way" on the oil subject. The ramifications of an ultimate 30% loss of oil production are not ones I prefer to deal with.

Please don't make yourself stranger around these parts before you come back again.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), March 02, 2000.


Well if the price of oil is all-important; and, by extension, the price of gas at the retail pump, then we're doing pretty good.

Though gasoline prices have risen in the past few months; in the U.S. we're still at a price level, adjusted for inflation, that is in the bottom 5% for all years from 1918 through now. (1998 saw an all-time low.)

Doesn't sound like Doom to me.

See http://www.api.org/pasp/ gasprice99.pdf

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), March 02, 2000.


RC...don't listen to the pollies... there are many who stand with you in what you believe... I wish you would keep posting! If you don't feel welcome here, there are other places that you are welcome!!! Thanks for a GREAT and timely post!!!! I really appreciated it!

-- Zavijaveh (Zavijaveh@aol.com), March 02, 2000.

OK, enough is enough. This is ALL speculation anyway. BUT are VERY good points. RC, do you want to have an intelligent conversation without flaming. Just email me and I will tell you were to go.

SANman

-- SANman (russell545@aol.com), March 02, 2000.


Riverwn and Zavijaveh,

You both of you are here. Good posts. See Ya at the other site.

-- SANman (russell545@aol.com), March 02, 2000.


R.C., May we see one single link to a credible report by a reputable major media outlet that demonstrates that y2k has caused a single refinery shutdown?

I thought not.

Next bullshitter please....

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), March 02, 2000.


A repost from an earlier thread:

The Facts
Want to get the facts on "oil" yourself?  If you're one of those amazing post-rollover doomers still convinced y2k is bringing down planes and exploding refineries, probably not, you would have no use for silly stuff like facts, especially since they're so unhelpful to "the cause."  But if you have an inquiring mind and want a clue, go to the  Energy Information Adminstration website and click on the Petrolium tab at the top, you'll find all the data you ever wanted about oil, including weekly updates such as  Distillate Watch (PDF) and  Crude Oil Watch (PDF).  Or try the latest news from various media sources at  Yahoo -Yahoo News Search - Past day: oil, gas, distillate, petrolium, refinery, refineries. It's amazing what you can find.

Here's a few examples:
FOCUS-Oil inventories slump, crude hits new highs
Friday February 11, 6:09 am Eastern Time
IEA calculations show that OPEC would need to raise supply by 2.4 million bpd for the rest of the year, to an average 28.6 million bpd, just to keep the market balanced at current low inventory levels.
The cartel pumped only 26.2 million bpd in January keeping it 76 percent compliant with the output cuts it targeted last March. (FF. Note: large type inserted for the visually impaired post-rollover doomers)

OPEC Jan cut compliance slips to 76 pct-IEA
Friday February 11, 4:30 am Eastern Time
LONDON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Compliance by OPEC producers to pledged supply cuts slipped to 76 percent in January from 78 percent in December, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

Output by 10 OPEC producers taking part in a near year-long restraint deal rose 80,000 bpd to 23.98 million barrels per day in January, the highest level since cuts began in April 1999, the Paris-based group said in its Monthly Oil Market Report.

Total OPEC output rose 610,000 bpd in January to 26.18 million bpd, swelled by sharply higher supply from Iraq, which does not take part in output restraint deal.

Among the OPEC 10, higher January supply came from Iran, up 80,000 bpd and the UAE, up 70,000 bpd, the IEA said. This left total production cuts at 3.31 million bpd compared to the reduction target of 4.32 million bpd, it added.

The current drop in compliance is not bringing as much oil onto the market as most market analysts say is necessary to restore depleted inventories, the IEA said.

``A bit of simple arithmetic is worth remembering. Each percentage point of compliance is worth only 43,000 bpd. So it would take a further drop in compliance of 30 percent to get an additional 1.3 million bpd,'' the IEA said.

The overall rise in production was eased by lower output from Saudi Arabia, where supply including the Neutral Zone shared with Kuwait fell by 50,000 bpd to 7.785 million bpd, the IEA said.

Following are the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s OPEC production figures for January with previous month comparison:
 

           & nbsp;            ;     Dec     Jan
    Saudi Arabia    7.835    7.785
    Iran                  3.37     3.45
    Iraq                  1.67     2.20
    UAE           & nbsp;    2.03     2.10
    Kuwait          &nbs p; 1.885    1.905
    Qatar            ;   0.63     0.64
    Nigeria          &nb sp; 1.98     1.94
    Libya            ;   1.40     1.40
    Algeria          &nb sp; 0.72     0.75
    Venezuela       2.78     2.78
    Indonesia        1.28     1.25
    Total crude     25.57    26.18
    Total NGLs     2.83     2.87
    Total OPEC   28.40    29.05

------------
Woahh....look at those figures right above, are those some INCREASES IN JANUARY 2000 OVER DECEMBER 1999?
HOW ABOUT THAT, Y2K SPORT FANS!!!!

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), March 02, 2000.


Actually, I don't even now have a rigid opinion one way or the other as to the degree of y2k problems in the oil industry. All I would ask of the "Pollies" is two things: 1) are there or are there not a greater number of problems in the oil industry since January 1/00 and 2) IF there are more problems (relative to immediate past years), what is/are the cause(s)? Please refrain from a re-hash of vitriol against RC, as that provides no answers. Any factual or well- reasoned input on these questions would be welcome. Thank you.

-- Myron Bevans (mbevans@telus.net), March 03, 2000.

Geez, FactFinder is sooo right. I forgot that OPEC was responsible for the Force Majuere in INDONESIA and of course for both of them in MEXICO and the US, too! Silly me! Even RUSSIA and GASPROM and being sabotaged by those arabic deceiving no-gooders! Why I bet OPEC is behind all the refinery fires in the US! I'll bet they even caused the meter/pipe to shut down in Argetina that caused the huge Oil spill!...Williams, Sunoco, Koch, Enron, Chevron, Tosco, Equilon, just a few of the US Companies with refinery problems,now allocating-- probably caused by a member of OPEC sneaking in it night! Yeah, thats the ticket! Hey how bout the Exxon Catcracker failing in Baytown Texas, today! I'll just bet that black smoke they saw blowing out , was caused by one of them there arabic sabotuers...... Thanks FF, I needed that laugh :) Please continue!

-- Riverwn (Riverwn@aol.com), March 03, 2000.

Myron wrote:

[All I would ask of the "Pollies" is two things: 1) are there or are there not a greater number of problems in the oil industry since January 1/00 and 2) IF there are more problems (relative to immediate past years), what is/are the cause(s)?]

Myron, why limit this to pollies? I'd LOVE to see the answers to these two questions from ANYONE who has the facts, whether man, martian or even doomer. You are exactly correct that we do NOT have the facts to answer either question. And these facts, as FactFinder implies, aren't simple yes-or-no answers. We may be (and probably are) having more of some kinds of problems than usual, and less of others. And of the problems we are having, there may be (and almost surely are) nearly as many different causes as there are problems. And most of the problems will have multiple causes working together. When you really get down and dig into things, this is how it always works out.

And who knows, there might be some date mishandling errors by computer software contributing to some of these problems. Maybe quite a few of them. Maybe none of them. We just don't know.

Hello out there! Can anyone answer Myron's questions with some facts? Hey, the problems have *already happened*, so we no longer need to guess about what might cause problems, we can examine the problems and find out. Is someone doing this? What are they finding? This should be a matter of record, not speculation and rumor and guesswork. Hellooooo....

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 03, 2000.


You older(ahem!) folks remember that Arabian 'Sheik' that was the mouthpiece for OPEC during the last "crisis" about 1980? When the cartel collapsed and oil prices dropped, he was being badgered by the press over OPEC's failure to control its producers. Suddenly, you could see his temper flare and he said "This time you got away, the next time you won't." Well, maybe that time is here. Never forget, it is in the interest of the producers that prices rise. The math is quite simple. 90% production at $40/barrel brings in a lot more money than 100% production at $12/barrel. But individual greed always kicked in to prevent the $40 oil. Maybe Y2K gave them boys an opportunity and they took it. All producers use the same equipment. If Y2K, all would have the same problems and production would be cut the same proportion. If so, it was a deliberate policy and almost Machiavellian in scope, not a Y2K 'accident'. I wonder if we could bust this by letting Saddam sell as much as he could produce? He would need to completely rebuild his infratstructure so lurking Y2K problems would be obviated. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. As usual, it is the monoply price of oil that is the key. Last time they went over it and the cartel crashed. With modern computer tech, maybe they can get closer this time and keep the price just below.

-- Richard C. Trochlil (trochlilbb@neumedia.net), March 03, 2000.

Richard,

Yes, I believe his name was Yamani.

And nothing like old fashioned greed as a motivator to raise prices.

Chicken Little and Fact Finder,

Thanks for the links.

No matter what the root cause, 30/bbbl crude and > $1.75/gallon gas is inlfationary and likely leads to a recession.

If this oil shock persists, what is the likelyhood of it cutting into the bubble.com euphoria?

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), March 03, 2000.


Velly intelesting rink...

http://oilworld.com/1petfut.htm

-- ConfuseUs (poo@high.com), March 03, 2000.


You know after reading all of this, I will stick to my opinion that RC is pretty much right on track. I have read alot of information on the oil, and other subjects, thanks to River, SANman and others from the other site. SOMETHING is not right and for the pollies to disclaim that this has nothing to do with Y2K is nonsense. Why may I ask is it not impossible for the problems steming from Y2K? Rose colored glasses work well only if left on...Take them off and see what is happening all around you, not only is the oil prices effecting us now and will, what will happen when it effects the food cost and so on. This is real and when folks get their heads out of the sand, then you will see what kind of picture is really painted here...

-- Nancy (Shaynak9@aol.com), March 03, 2000.

A raise in prices is a raise in prices. Inflation is caused by increasing the supply of money and oddly enough, there are some people who think the Fed had been printing money like mad for some time. If that is true, we will soon find out. As for the stock market, the crash is long overdue. When it comes and it is inevitable, we can blame it on Y2K. As for the oil 'crisis', it would not surprise me if it was Y2K related. But I would be astounded if that was a surprise to the oil folks. And I wouldn't be too surprised if they told Richardson "Gee, it's Y2K and it will take months to fix, we'll do the best we can but you know how complex these things are." (Grin) And meanwhile the price goes up and they make big bucks. In fact, it is to their interest not to fix it very fast. And it is to their interest to start feeding rumours that it is Y2K so nobody can blame them for conspiring against us home folk. "No use to bomb us, it's Y2K and we got the stuff on backorder!" Right.

-- Richard C. Trochlil (trochlilbb@neumedia.net), March 03, 2000.

R.C. -- You have been one of the most valuable contributors to this forum. I suggest you repost this on the new forum. If the signup/login requirements are not a problem for you.

-- A (A@AisA.com), March 03, 2000.

Let's face it, we don't know the truth-at best we are making many inferences from minimum relevant data, at least with respect to the issue of unplanned refinery outages. Visit the Ecological Life Systems Institute (ELSI) at:

http://www.elsi.org/signatures.htm

sign the petition for a public federal inquiry along the lines proposed. Why settle for less than the whole truth?

consider also the following discussion from: http://www.elsi.org/petro2.htm What are they trying to hide?

Regards, Stuart H. Rodman

Will Y2K be remembered as the bug that ate our civil liberties?

Petro Gate 2000: the Truth Not Told

Can you keep a secret? The petro chemical industry can that's for sure. During the last two years special interests rammed legislation through the Congress allowing the industry to keep the details of its Y2K preparations under wraps and to prevent us from knowing the truth about all those chemical plants that are located within 5 miles of 85 million Americans.

What we don't know can hurt us. Many of the plants contain toxic substances similar to the lethal poisons that killed thousands as they slept in Bhopal, India over a decade ago. But the new law, Public Law 106-40 makes it harder than ever for journalists and researchers to reveal the details of what can actually happen if an accident occurred in any of the most lethal plants in America.

The oil companies must love secrets though. Just a year earlier, their Christmas came early when Congress gave them The Year 2000 Readiness Information Disclosure Act which prevents government agencies and others from disclosing the facts about their Y2K remediation plans.

Oh, did you think Y2K was a big non event? Think again. According to CNNfn, Internet "glitch tracking" sites like "Bugbite 2000" and "Glitch Central" have had their virtual hands full trying to keep up with the hundreds of acknowledged Y2K problems that have been wreaking havoc on business since the start of the New Year.

Still, they say you can't fight City Hall but with the ever rising price of heating oil, diesel fuel, and gasoline, many American's are wondering aloud exactly what they can do. Since the beginning of January, consumers have watched helplessly as the price for many refinery products has reached prices not seen in this country since the Gulf War.

The signs of trouble are everywhere. Truckers report of fuel shortage so severe that many operators have already experienced waiting times in fuel lines of over 8 hours. Many long distance drivers converged on the Nation's Capital last month to protest the increasingly intolerable shortages. In case that's not bad enough, home owners in the Northeast are hard pressed to find home heating oil in the face of severe winter weather and the U.S. Department of Energy is now warning that the end may be nowhere in sight.

The good news? At least one man is trying to make a difference. According to Jim Bell of San Diego, an advocate of sustainable growth, and founder of the twenty two year old Ecological Life Systems Institute (ELSI);

"A crisis has come upon the people of our nation. The skyrocketing price of home heating oil and other petroleum byproducts is threatening the health and financial well being of millions."

No doubt about it. Published reports from the private sector news services document record setting prices, shortages, ongoing accidents and outages this year throughout the nation's refineries at a time when many Americans are most in need of their products. Among last month's published headlines:

"Gasoline down over 430,000 bbls and heating oil off just over 1 million bbls"

"Surprising 2.9-million bbl gasoline decline, decline in supplies, at a time when the industry was expecting a build"

"Average nationwide street values surpassing $1.40 gal for the first time ever"

"Refinery problems reducing supply"

"Exxon has taken down an FCC"

"Truckers Converge on D.C. To Protest Fuel Prices"

"Huge Oil Price Increases Imminent for Truckers, Airlines, and Homeowners"

"Clark had a problem at its Port Arthur refinery"

"Crude oil prices hit 9-year high"

"Refinery unit shut down after it developed 'control problems' "

"Clinton Worried on Heating Oil Costs"

"FUTURES ROAR ABOVE $30 BBL; HIGHEST NUMBERS SINCE JAN 1991"

"Maintenance or other problems at midwestern refineries"

"TEXAS MARKETS SEE SEVERE PRODUCT OUTAGES"

"World oil stocks reaching extremely low levels"

"PROPANE STOCKS FALL BELOW NORMAL EVERYWHERE"

"East Coast stocks of distillate at 32-million bbl, some 34-million bbl below last year"

"Industry will see uncomfortably tight stocks of fuel well into the future. recent 'cracks' of $30-$40 bbl"

"REPORTS OF TERMINAL OUTAGES, ALLOCATIONS ALONG EAST COAST CONTINUE"

"NEW YORK HEATING OIL SUPPLY THREATENED"

"SPOT HORROR STORIES STILL DOT EAST COAST; RECORD PRICES PAID"

"Lines lasting up to eight hours for loading"

"NORTHEASTERN DIESEL HITS NEW RECORD HIGH"

This most recent oil crisis is of course but the latest in a series of oil shocks afflicting the country since the oil embargo of the seventies. At that time, America made a commitment to work towards energy self sufficiency, to explore alternative fuels and develop renewable resources. In an open letter to President Clinton calling for swift Federal intervention to get to the bottom of the industry's latest woes, Mr. Bell adds,

"America made a commitment to work towards energy self sufficiency, to explore alternative fuels and develop renewable resources. Today however, millions are again in crisis in large part because we have fallen short in achieving those goals."

The problem is real and unmistakable. Statistics available from the U.S. Energy Information Service show that capacity utilization at our nation's refineries is down markedly from the similar period a year ago.

The specific source of the current crisis is said to be the rising price of crude oil. This development is said to have its roots in the decision last year by the oil producing nations to cut production in the hope of raising profits. Domestic petroleum stocks were low as we entered the winter, and refineries were faced with low profit margins and little incentive to increase the supply of end products for consumers.

Efforts to mitigate the crisis through the use available petroleum stocks were stalled by a seeming endless stream of unplanned refinery outages and breakdowns. A bad situation was made worse by the untimely mishaps which, according to some reports, seem to be occurring at a rising rate of frequency. Speculative commodities trading rose and fell with reports of each incident but rarely was a full accounting ever offered for the underlying cause of the outages.

Although accidents involving hazardous materials or injuries must be reported by law, no fully adequate public database exists to evaluate the significance of the refinery problems and their relationship to the overall problem facing those who rely on the dependability of the infrastructure. In fact, efforts to determine the reliability and safety of the petroleum industry's aging and complex infrastructure are hampered by a reluctance to report incidents that might otherwise escape public detection. However, the problems seem to be increasing at an accelerated rate since the New Year.

ELSI is not alone in voicing concerns. Prominent national leaders including Governor Pataki of New York, Senator Dodd from Connecticut and others, have been calling for Federal action to diffuse the crisis and to determine its cause. But Mr. Bell underscores the issues,

7 How reliable is our petro chemical infrastructure and how much confidence should the public invest in it? 7 What are the causes for the reason spate of unplanned refinery outages affecting the price and delivery of critical fuel supplies to homes and business? 7 What can be done to assure compliance by the petro chemical industry with existing laws for reporting accidents and making that data available freely to the public? 7 What can be done to lessen our dependence on imported oil and increase our use of renewable alternatives in our most vulnerable areas of need?

Bell adds, "The time has come for answers, Mr. President." Bell's organization, ELSI, is mounting a grassroots signature drive from their website at www.elsi.org demanding that the President address these concerns to the appropriate agency of government.Will the industry and its supporters love of a good secret derail Bell's efforts?

Hard to say. However, a determined hacker defaced the ELSI petition page last Friday, tying it up and denying service to disgruntled petitioners for over three hours before ELSI finally was forced to pull the plug on the unrelenting intruder.The petition process was disrupted for nearly a day. Many frustrated visitors wondered what was behind the attack and whether it might be an effort to cover up for the effects of Y2K. Has the voracious bug found a new way to take still another bite out of civil liberties?



-- Stuart H. Rodman (jrodman527@aol.com), March 05, 2000.


I tried the eZboard forum -- too cumbersome, plus when I delete my cookies and/or exit, all the settings needed to display the way I wanted, disappear, so got to do it all over.

So, I am gonna hang out awhile on the new (uncensored?) Greenspun forum at

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TB2K%20spinoff%20unce nsored

-- A (A@AisA.com), March 06, 2000.


woops -- take out the space in the URL when you paste it to the browwer "Location:" (go to) window.

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TB2K%20spinoff%20unce nsored

-- A (A@AisA.com), March 06, 2000.


4pm EST/03/07/2000. The DOW is down 375 plus points. Oil is up to $34. a barrel. The boys in Washington say they will have to talk to OPEC and convince them to increase production. As if they can...---...

-- Les (yoyo@tolate.com), March 07, 2000.

Ya right, you were right about oil prices and Y2K....Like it had any affect on the recent oil price increases. There is no evidence that oil prices are going up as a result of Y2K. Oil priced just happen to go up and down like every other sector.

I bet you were wrong about tec stock and dot com IPO prices as a resuly of Y2K.

-- bull Ony (bs@bc.com), March 09, 2000.


http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/DailyNews/gasprices000313.html

Link

Pumps Up

Record Speed for Latest Gas Price Hike

The Associated Press

L O S A N G E L E S, March 13  A crude oil crunch sent gasoline prices soaring a record 12 cents per gallon in the past two weeks and they may not dip until summer, an analyst predicted. Prices at the pump continue to soar.

The average retail price of gasoline nationwide, including all grades and taxes, was about $1.59 per gallon on Friday, up 11.99 cents from Feb. 25, according to the Lundberg Survey of 10,000 stations.

The word increase kind of pales, analyst Trilby Lundberg said.

The costliest gas  premium at full-service stations  flirted with the $2-per-gallon benchmark.

Record-Breaking Speed

Consumers could take some comfort that when adjusted for inflation, the average overall price is still lower than the record set two decades ago.

The true high was June 1980, with $2.66 for all grades combined using todays dollars, Lundberg said.

Its more than a dollar lower in real terms. But in terms of speed, this is a true record-breaker, Lundberg added. The rate of increase  6 cents per week per gallon nationwide  has never been seen before.

Prices were higher in the West, where gasoline has been in shorter supply because of refinery problems last year.

San Francisco had the highest price for self-service regular, the most-purchased type of gas, at an average of $1.83 per gallon. That was up 21 cents in two weeks.

Cheyenne, Wyo., had the bottom price, at about $1.39 per gallon.

The high price of crude oil and short supply are driving all increases.

Oil Inventories Depleted

The International Energy Agency reported last week that the United States and the worlds other richest countries have depleted their oil inventories to the lowest levels in four years.

The IEAs David Knapp said there is a shortfall in global petroleum supplies of about 2.5 million barrels per day.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is worried about the recent price volatility, and analysts now expect the group to ease some of the production cuts that it made in 1998 and 1999.

However, Lundberg warned, dont look for an immediate dip in gas prices, because demand will be rising due to warmer weather and the start of the spring driving season.

Even if the outcome of the March 27 OPEC meeting brings more oil supplies to the market, U.S. gasoline prices may hover around current levels or rise in the next few weeks, she said.

Prices at self-service stations averaged $1.5450 for regular unleaded gasoline, $1.6385 for mid-grade and $1.7234 for premium. Full-service prices were $1.8211 for regular, $1.9064 for mid-grade and $1.9835 for premium.

Copyright 2000 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

-- (in@the.news), March 13, 2000.


See these two articles from the archives:

Iran says two refineries vulnerable to Y2K problem

Iran: U.S. caused Y2K bug

It seems to me that one possible way to get an idea on whether the current energy crunch has anything to do with Y2K is to compare the oil output of Iran and other countries whose Y2K readiness was uncertain with the oil output of these countries from a year ago. OPEC countries have cut back on production, of course, but has the cutback been even more pronounced among countries who started remediation late?

As someone commented on the first link from up above...

Even after all this TB2000 reading I still don't know about major oil company operations like in the US and Saudi Arabia, but at least I know they've given it the effort. But how about these archaic nationalized gov owned and gov run oil operations like Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lybia and Algeria? This Iran article is probably a good indication....

Someone who knows how to check current and year ago figures for a variety of countries should look into this. Take into account whether the country is an OPEC member, and if it is, how does the production of that OPEC country compare with other OPEC countries who started Y2K remediation at an earlier or later date?

-- Is it or (isn't@it.Y@K), March 14, 2000.


Hi RC!

Just popped in to the forum to take a quick look - I'm in Europe having finished my y2k contract in Denver... job hunting, travelling, having a few beers (!)...

I wanted to say yes, you were right, and my wallet is a lot fatter as a result... although oil did not hit 35 dollars plus, as I though it would, I still managed to sell my 35 dollar call options (31 of them) for 510 dollars each last week - having paid 130 back in December.

Unleaded gas hit 95 cents plus - again you and I were correct on that score although I didn't cash in - my 85c calls expired mid february out of the money...

I'm currently buying June 35 calls (expire mid may) at about 280 dollars each... big oil meeting on March 27th and IMHO it could go either way - Iran is desperate for more dollars and will push to keep the price high... it's a fair bet...

Hi to all, glad to see the forum is till up and running!

My best to you RC, kudos my man.

Best regards,

Andy

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.com), March 15, 2000.


Andy was the best. Andy if you read this come on over to Unk's Wild Wild West.

-- Poopsie (don't@call.me), November 17, 2001.

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