Snips from OPIS alerts. OPIS frowns on posting their entire alerts.

As this goes into the forum, crude oil is trading at $30.73, is up sharply for the afternoon, and may hit the $31 mark. Hold on to your wallets.

1. Equilon may be the first West Coast refiner to announce an allocation in response to a growing West Coast supply squeeze resulting from refinery problems and turnarounds. Equilon just announced for branded customers an allocation effective for all California terminals as of Feb. 24.

L.A. gasoline moved at $1.05 gal yesterday and $1.07 gal this morning. San Francisco Bay gasoline prices were quoted at $1.09 this morning. Pacific Northwest gasoline prices are ranging 93-95cts.

Allocation = rationing

Supply situation is getting tough on the left coast. Those are wholesale prices for gas, before about 60 cents of tax and markup are added.

2. Pascagoula, MS Refinery is down.

Another one bites the dust.

3. Rumor in the NY marketss is that a big oil company is holding #2 (heating) oil futures contracts and actually intends to take physical delivery.

Panic.......no one has the actual physical oil to supply the amount being held in the futures contracts (March heating oil, expires next week). This has jacked the price of heating oil up in the futures market.

4. OPEC indicated that they might increase output next month. The talked about increase is only about 3/4 of that needed to restore balance to prices. Crude oil futures shot up on the rumor that OPEC would increase!

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), February 25, 2000

Answers

Gas rationing is already in effect via the gas credit card. I just heard on the radio where as individual using a gas company credit card to pay was not permitted to get gasoline because he had already purchased gasoline earlier in the day. Don't know which company card was in use.

-- Y2kObserver (Y2kObserver@nowhere.com), February 25, 2000.

HHhhhmmmmm
Lotsa accidents, caused by ______, even predicted on TB2K all last 1/2 of 1999, for this current time frame, coming true:

[ Fair Use: For Educational / Research Purposes Only ]

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/00/02/st022501.html

Gas price increases linked to accidents

A federal report says dealers' reactions to a refinery fire and pipeline blast caused Oregon's prices at the pump to skyrocket

Friday, February 25, 2000

-----------------------------------------------------------------
By Jim Barnett of The Oregonian staff

WASHINGTON -- Oregon gasoline prices spiked twice in 1999 because dealers clamored for more supplies in the wake of separate West Coast refinery and pipeline accidents, according to a government report released Thursday.

The report, prepared by the U.S. General Accounting Office, cited the accidents and a resulting "market psychology" of fear as the chief causes for the price increases. Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore., requested the report.

Oregon has some of the highest pump prices in the nation. A gallon of unleaded cost an average of $1.44 in January, compared with a national average of $1.29. And worse may be yet to come.

Testifying on Capitol Hill on Thursday, energy experts and government officials painted a grim picture for the spring and summer driving season. Price increases haven't slowed, they said, and they probably won't any time soon.

"We could see price increases of 20 to 25 cents a gallon" for gasoline in April and May because of tight supplies, said Adam Sieminski, an energy economist at DB Alex. Brown.

The GAO report found that a California refinery fire last spring led to a 46-cent-per-gallon increase in Oregon. Prices dropped 14 cents, the report said, but a subsequent pipeline explosion in Washington state that summer prompted a 19-cent increase.

Global, rather than local, issues are at the root of new price increases expected this year.

Worldwide crude oil prices are at the highest point in years, and supplies are low, witnesses told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. As a result, refiners are producing less gasoline, and dealers are competing for supplies. More price jolts are likely, and vacationers are sure to be irked.

"There's going to be some finger-pointing if we enter the summer with $2-a-gallon gasoline," predicted Sen. Frank Murkowski, R-Alaska, chairman of the energy committee.

Many motorists are paying nearly $1.50 a gallon and even $2 for regular gasoline, according to various studies, witnesses said. The national average this week was $1.41, a nickel more than the week earlier.

Gas prices could follow the same pattern as heating oil prices, which soared this winter, said John Cook, petroleum director at the Energy Information Administration.

Cook said low inventories of crude oil and a reluctance by refiners to buy at high prices set the stage for the price of heating oil to double in parts of the Northeast when the weather suddenly turned cold.

Now a similar scenario seems to be developing on the gasoline front.

Both gasoline and petroleum stocks are low, said Cook, adding that refiners will have to increase gasoline production significantly to meet high summer demand.

"With very little crude oil or gasoline in inventory, refiners will be purchasing crude oil in a market short on supplies" and that means higher prices, he said.

Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., used the hearing to lobby Energy Department officials to ease supplies by selling lower-priced crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and replace it with higher-priced oil from the world market.

"The oil industry wants market intervention when it's good for them," Wyden said. "Now, it's clear that we need to have an opportunity to do the same thing for the consumer."
---------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), February 25, 2000.