http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

Solar Weather Watch Report... updated late Sunday night

[note: the main body of the solar magnetic storm may not yet have arrived and may still be coming, though so far we've only had a brief uptick of effect and then diminishment, so who knows]

Recent development:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 20. Solar wind speed ranged between 325 and 452 km/sec. A solar wind shock was observed at ACE near 20:45 UTC. Although the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly moderately to strongly southwards for several hours following the CME impact at 21:40, the effects on the geomagnetic field was much smaller than was expected. Currently solar wind densities are very high and the main body of the disturbance may not yet have arrived.

Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 153.3, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 1031 0023, Boulder K indices: 0122 1113). Region 8869 developed further and is capable of producing a major flare. Region 8870 was quiet and stable, as was region 8872 (which is spotless early on Feb. 21). Region 8875 is developing and could produce C flares today. Should further development take place minor M flares will become possible. Region 8876 was quiet and stable, the region is spotless early on Feb.21. Region 8878 rotated off the visible disk. Region 8879 was quiet and stable and has only a single, very large sunspot. New region 8880 emerged in the southwest quadrant near the limb. An active region at the northeast limb is rotating into view. Another active region at the southeast limb is rotating into view as well, this region could produce further M flares.

Flares and CMEs:

11 C flares and 1 M flare were recorded on February 20. Region 8869 produced many C flares including a C8.5/1N flare at 00:57 UTC, a C4.0 flare at 04:20 UTC and a C4.9 flare at 10:26 UTC. The region rotating onto the disk at the southeast limb produced an M2.4 flare at 22:07 UTC, it was accompanied by a moderately strong type II sweep.

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.

Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on February 21-25 and start a geomagnetic disturbance on Feb.24. This coronal hole is smaller than it has been over the last several months and is probably decaying.

Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on February 21. Quiet to active is expected for February 22. A coronal stream will cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on February 24-26. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), February 21, 2000

Answers

It sounds real interesting. I wish someone would translate for me. What does the above mean? Is it good news or bad? ...sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), February 21, 2000.

I'm going to show my age and ask the $64,000 question. What's this in English? Layman's english, that is. :-)

Janette

-- me (me@me.com), February 21, 2000.

Dick,

Where do you see our Roller Coaster Stock Markets heading in the next few weeks?

-- Zdude (zdude777@hotmail.com), February 21, 2000.

Sorry for the duplicated question. At least now I know I'm not the only one that's confused. :-)

Janette

-- me (me@me.com), February 21, 2000.

It means some nice Aurora Borealis, possibly.

I can't believe we forgot to remediate the Sun.

-- Bemused (and_amazed@ed.yourdon), February 21, 2000.

dick moody must be a ham. confess, dick.

-- jocelyne slough (jonslough@tln.net), February 21, 2000.

Looks like 10 meters MIGHT maybe warm up again in the near future.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), February 21, 2000.

So how come NOTHING is happening...?

-- no borealis display (where@I.am), February 21, 2000.

To all on this news,

Beats me. I just saw it and posted. I kinda think the experts are also trying to figure out where the thing went to. Maybe it has some how missed us again. I read somewhere that NASA wants two deep space probes out there monitoring so that they can triangulate and then accurately track these CME's so that they know exactly when one will hit earth.

Someone asked me about Stock Market. I gave up on the Stocks. They should have blown out a long, long, long time ago. The Fed just keeps coming in and pumping more air and helium into the market in a crisis. So who knows. Right now the DMI oscillators are showing a tentative shorting signal...meaning prices should decline. The move has been a lot bigger than the oscillator signal size. Now that used to mean an exaggerated move and it would get worse. But anymore, who knows? Nothing is making any sense anymore with the Stock market. None of the oscillators seem to have much if any value. It's as if the whole mkt. has lost its mind. Maybe all of this is due to online trading and it has somehow forever altered the fabric of technical analysis. I don't know. We don't seem to see online trading affecting other markets like commodities so who knows. Probably, it is just a case of the Feds just so overmanipulating the stocks that technical tools have been rendered useless for predictive purposes. Gold has been this way but to a far lesser degree.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), February 21, 2000.

Some of the things it means to me are these. As we become more and more dependent on digital appliances, we become more and more vulnernable to disruptions. Some of which are out of our control with current technology.

I will begin to research the possible effects of such anomalies on the upcoming fuel cell vehicles, that no doubt are our immediate future. What effect may an unexpected attack on the grid, from any source, have on the future appliances that we use every day? Will it be cost prohibitive to fix the "smart" refrigerator, or oven, or HVAC systems that are linked?

I do not wish to EVER rejoin the unacceptably dependent population and be at risk again. Future choices will have to be scrutinized with a new pair of glasses.

This cycle repeats every 11 years, and the magnetosphere, "our only protection" MUST be systemically linked to global warming trends. It is definetly worth investigation and vigilence, IMHO.

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), February 21, 2000.

I've been frying my Y2K Eggs on my solar panels. Cycle 23 max is helping alot. I like mine over-easy.

-- gomer (gnomer@dot.com), February 21, 2000.

Well, it is the 21st....I guess the sun shot blanks this time.

-- canthappen (n@ysayer.com), February 21, 2000.