Are planes falling from the skies?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Are planes really falling from the skies? This was used for Y2K doomer ridicule last year and the first week or so of this year (when people weren't flying anyway), but it seems to me that there really are many more plane crashes than normal. Does anyone know how to get info on how many plane crashes occured in the past, so a comparison can be made to how many are crashing lately?

-- Robert Manny (rmanny@thegrid.net), February 19, 2000

Answers

Robert:

Please look at the many threads about plane crashes that have been posted here in the last month or so. I have posted several web sites that detail exactly how many accidents occur every month with data going back to 1945. There haven't been more plane crashes or incidents in 2000 than there were for the corresponding period in 1999.

It's easy to think there are more since every incident is being posted now. How many of these incidents did you see posted anywhere in 1999?

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), February 20, 2000.


Thanks for your suggestion Jim. I have read much of the Plane crash info, but my eyesight is bad and I can't read it all. Please give me any subject titles you've posted and the URLs of your websites. That's just the sort of data I'm interested in.

-- Robert Manny (rmanny@thegrid.net), February 20, 2000.

Robert:

Actually, it looks like most of the posts have scrolled off due to a (ahem) high level of posts the last few days.

The best site I've found is at

http://www3.tstonramp.com/~kebab/links.htm

It contains links to almost every airline and aircraft site on the web including incidents and accidents. Most of the sites are by aircraft professionals and I've found the information very reliable over the years.

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), February 20, 2000.


I do a newsletter on Y2K glitches, which by the way is free for anyone who contacts me and asks for it, and I somewhat question if there really is an increase in plane difficulties or crashes. It may be that due to warnings of Y2K related problems, many reports are forthcoming and could it be possible that many are wanting to believe that what is happening to the airline industry is Y2K related?

-- Richard Markland (newsman@bright.net), February 20, 2000.

Yes Richard, based on some links provided by Jim (see above), I believe that there is a normal number of accidents. It would seem that there are no Y2K problems in this area. There may be problems in other fields however, and this approach of comparing the data from previous months and years to the current data may be the best way to detect Y2K glitches. What do you think? People don't want to say, or don't even know, if it's a Y2K problem in any given instance.

I'd like to see your newsletter. How do I go about getting it? Through email?

-- Robert Manny (rmanny@thegrid.net), February 20, 2000.



Robert, some of the earlier threads, in looking at, I believe, NTSB data, worked out that while there may not be a significant increase in the number of total incidents, there has indeed been an astonishing increase in mechanical malfunctions of some kind. So, you have to look at more than the total numbers, because they can mask the nature of the problem.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), February 20, 2000.

Brooks:

Did you look at the information at the site I posted? If so, can you tell me where your evidence is for an "astonishing" increase in mechanical problems? These sites include every type of accident and incident, including mechanical problems and I can't see anything to support your assertion.

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), February 20, 2000.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ