Diplomatic Blitzkrieg: The West Responds to Russia's Assertiveness

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Diplomatic Blitzkrieg: The West Responds to Russia's Assertiveness

Diplomatic Blitzkrieg: The West Responds to Russia's Assertiveness

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STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update 11 February 2000

Diplomatic Blitzkrieg: The West Responds to Russia's Assertiveness

Summary

European Commission President Romano Prodi said Feb. 10 that the European Union (EU) would extend absolute security guarantees to all of its members. This statement in a single stroke redefines Russia and the West's struggle for the countries of Central Europe. No longer will Russia have the luxury of viewing EU expansion as a harmless process. Prodi essentially announced de facto NATO expansion under the guise of EU security guarantees.

Analysis

European Commission President Romano Prodi surprised his Latvian audience Feb. 10 by declaring that "any attack or aggression against an EU [European Union] member nation would be an attack or aggression against the whole EU, this is the highest guarantee." If implemented as stated, this marks a quantum shift in EU policies from the purely economic into the security realm - a change that Russia cannot afford to ignore. Now Russia will feel just as threatened by EU expansion as it has by NATO expansion. Prodi's announcement intensified the ever-escalating race to establish a new frontier between Russia and the West.

At the Jan. 24-25 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit, [http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/012100.ASP] Russia compelled its fellow CIS members to participate in tighter security measures [http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c0001260125.htm] to combat terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism - Moscow's code names for Chechen militants.

Until now, the West has responded to Russia's new assertiveness with piecemeal measures. First, there was a tug-of-war for Georgia's loyalties [http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c0002030025.htm] over joint Russian-Georgian border patrols. Then, the United States directly challenged Russian interests in the Persian Gulf [http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m0002040010.htm] by boarding a Russian tanker that was evading U.N. sanctions. Russia responded to these challenges by strengthening its ties with old Soviet client states [http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/020800.ASP] such as Iraq, North Korea and Vietnam. Now, the West has seized the Russian gauntlet. High-level delegations are taking off to entice much of Central Europe to fully join the Western fold.

Russia cannot help but take this diplomatic blitz seriously. Among the delegations are the European Commission president, NATO's secretary-general and NATO's supreme commander. Their target audiences include an array of states traditionally within the Russian sphere of influence: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania border Russia; and Christian Orthodox Romania and Moldova share religious ties. To underscore the completeness of the Western response, NATO even dispatched a delegation Feb. 9 to Russia's Caucasus neighbor, Georgia.

But it is Prodi's statement that will truly shock Russia. The fact that the proclamation came from the European Commission's president - the highest non-rotating position within the EU superstructure - indicates that the intent to implement security guarantees is no mere trial balloon, but new EU policy.

However, Prodi's promise of an explicit security guarantee cannot be supported by current EU capabilities. Even if the Eurocorps functions as Prodi envisions, it will have a scant 60,000 troops at its command. This is just barely enough to handle a Kosovo-style operation; it would do little to deter a large-scale attack from a hostile power. Even the defense establishments of Europe's larger countries would be hard-pressed to project sufficient power to Europe's eastern fringes in times of crisis.

Only the United States could possibly provide the level of force that Prodi envisions. Prodi's wording itself sounds remarkably similar to NATO's Article V security guarantee: "that an armed attack against one or more of them shall be considered an attack against them all." This indicates that Prodi - the steamroller of EU reform [http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu2000/012800.asp] - is either bluffing his way through Central Europe or has plans to integrate NATO into the EU in order to produce a militarily credible Europe. Prodi's assurance of security to all EU members extends NATO guarantees to the countries that will be on the EU's new eastern border. Suddenly, Russia's perception of the EU becomes much less benign.

What makes the announcement more dramatic is Prodi's choice of audiences - Latvia. Of all the former communist states, this small Baltic country has had the most venomous relations with its former master. Prodi's statement and the locale in which he made it indicate Prodi's willingness - even enthusiasm - to stare down Russia over issues of importance to Europe.

Russia may have the advantage in the race for Caspian oil routes [ http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/specialreports/special20.htm] and in the contest for Central Asia [http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/specialreports/special13.htm], but Prodi has firmly set his mind on the EU fully absorbing all of Eastern Europe - Baltics included. Now he has shown a unique willingness to use NATO to achieve that goal. It remains to be seen how the rest of the Union will respond to this sudden policy shift. Prodi will have his plate full convincing the EU's four neutral states to militarize under any common banner. Persuading France to allow the United States an even more prominent position in Europe will prove thorny as well.

If the EU fully adopts Prodi's plans, it would conjure a nightmare scenario for Russia. A soft-power EU and hard-power NATO would become formal partners in Western expansion. Traditionally neutral countries such as Austria, Finland, Ireland and Sweden would be co- opted into a NATO-EU military structure. An economically powerful EU, backed by a militarily powerful NATO, would dig in along vast lengths of Russia's eastern border. Russia's acquiescence to EU expansion will rapidly come to an end, and what little is left of the Russia-West "friendship" may be completely gone.

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-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), February 12, 2000

Answers

Ladies & gentlemen, doomers & pollies---THIS MEANS WAR!!!

-- INever (Inevercheckmy@onebox.com), February 12, 2000.

Heavens No! Silly, haven't you heard? World wars are a thing of the past; now we have UN peacekeeping. Just like economic hard times are passe now that we have the Internet. Someone forgot to tell you the New Age is here, just as predicted. Can't you see the 'thousand points of light'?

-- canthappen (n@ysayer.com), February 13, 2000.

Can't is right. We have the UN now. It will save us from Russia and also from ourselves. Can't you remember the 'great' rescue work the UN did in Rwanda? (wink)

-- haha (haha@haha.com), February 13, 2000.

Bill P, sorry I forgot to say THANKS for the great post.

-- canthappen (n@ysayer.com), February 13, 2000.

Yes - but of course the UN will save us.

Remember Kosovo, the UN stopped the 100,000 deaths resulting from ethnic purging without a single death from accidental bombings, totally forced Milosevec out of Kosovo, gave Kosovo total freedom and autonomy, and there is currently absolute pure peace in Kosovo now.

Now would you like to hear the story of the tooth fairy?

-- Honest Abe (JustLoveIt@un.com), February 13, 2000.



It amazes me how the US is always called on to protect Europe/NATO..... yet we are behind in our "UN Dues"........ oh... Is that the IMF calling? :-)

-- Casper (c@no.yr), February 13, 2000.

Honest Abe, not only that....we also took out some Chinese to boot!

-- canthappen (n@ysayer.com), February 13, 2000.

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