Russia grasps its big prize of Chechen oil From Giles Whittell in Moscow February 10 2000 Link THREE days after raising its flag in Grozny's last rebel stronghold, Russia is claiming the richest prize of the war: Chechnya's potential as a conduit for the vast oil wealth of the Caspian basin. In a postscript to a flood of announcements on its newly "liberated" province, the Kremlin has assigned the right to extract and exploit Chechnya's oil and gas reserves to Rosneft, Russia's last big state-owned oil group. Russia has promised to cut its 93,000 force in Chechnya by nearly half. Valery Manilov, first deputy chief of Russia's general staff, said: "There will be about 50,000 troops left, and they will be mainly paratroops, marines, and rapid-reaction forces." The annexation of Chechnya's oil may yet hit obstacles - Rosneft has already been forced to seek a special licence to drill there. Nevertheless, the move was being seen as an unmistakeable signal that Russia now means to exact a swift return in oil revenues and regional prestige. "This is a case of Russia re-establishing its historic dominance of the region," James Henderson, chief oil analyst at Renaissance Capital, in Moscow, said. "Moscow is saying 'there are assets in Chechnya and we, Russia, are going to control them'." One analyst in Moscow put Chechnya's untapped reserves last month at 60 billion tonnes, equivalent to much of the Middle East's remaining supply. Most experts believe that the region's wells are uneconomic and its status as a player in the global oil business rests on its position straddling a key pipeline linking the Caspian to Russia's biggest Black Sea oil terminal, at Novorossiisk. What is clear is the importance that Russia attaches to rebuilding the Chechen oil industry that it has spent much of the past five months bombing. Even as the wells and refineries that ring Grozny continue to burn at a rate of 400 tonnes of oil a day, a succession of delegations has flown in from Moscow to assess the damage and set production targets. As one expert said: "Access to the Caspian has been the reason for Chechnya's importance. Why else did Hitler try so hard to conquer it?"

Copyright 2000 Times Newspapers Ltd

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), February 09, 2000

Answers

60 Billion Tons of Oil, how many barrels is that?

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), February 09, 2000.

For those who visit this forum and view this thread, but who disbelieve the cynical point of view displayed here, all I can say is: Machiavelli wrote "The Prince" in about 1520. Politicians have had about 480 years to study it. Even those who have never heard of it have felt it's percipience.

They live in that world. maybe it is time you took a peek into it yourself. To control oil is control the world's destiny for the next 50 years (at least).

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), February 09, 2000.

The Prince
A cool site if you like old books: The On-Line Books Page

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), February 10, 2000.

Brian,

LOL -- a lot -- at your "For those who visit this forum and view this thread, but who disbelieve the cynical point of view displayed here..." observation. Oh, how true, how true. Sun Tzu's been available for a little while also, right? And, when all else fails, there's always the simple, good old advise to "follow the money" and "follow the power".

PI, nice catch, nice catch!

Now, since we're seeing the Russians doing more and more of their version of connect-the-dots, we ought to be seeing more besides a continually-climbing platinum price and significant decreases in natural gas shipments to Western Europe.

From Stratfor and other sources, it seems we're seeing some of the other Southern rim (of the old Sov Union) Arabic-speaking countries very reluctantly falling into line. While Iran watches and does not like seeing its own opportunities slipping away.

Oh, interesting times, interesting times!

-- Redeye in Ohio (cannot@work.com), February 10, 2000.

Great post. Hits the nail squarely on the head...interesting times indeed. Let's just hope they don't get a lot more interesting.....

-- Carl Jenkins (Somewherepress@aol.com), February 10, 2000.

Right on!, Brian McL, conspiracy in this world is an crucial factor, but it's much more along the lines of Macchiavelli than D.Icke.

-- number six (#@#.com), February 10, 2000.

This explains why they are soooooo determined to keep the place!

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), February 10, 2000.