A friend of mine whose family farms (and who hasn't been concerned about Y2K that I can tell, and who I think isn't even on the internet) told me something strange regarding oil in a conversational digression, while we were discussing another issue we had to deal with.

The representative of the company from which they buy gasoline (A---? Amoco?) said that the price was supposed to go up to $1.75 after some months. Right now, we're hovering in our normal price range, about $1.30. This is of concern to farmers especially because their profit margin is already so low.

If anyone is interested, I can go get more correct information (the name of the gas company, how many months, how they would know such a thing), etc. I could ask whatever other questions were suggested, too.

Sorry this is so vague, but the conversation was mainly about something else, so now that I am trying to remember, I just remember vague details (yes, it was earlier today--I only have so many brain cells, okay?).

-- S. Kohl (kohl@hcpd.com), February 07, 2000

Answers

I heard something similar from my neighbor's brother's sister's uncle's cousin's nephew's sister's babysitter. :)

-- X (X@X.com), February 07, 2000.

X, is Kohl a known troll? If not lay off. If he/she is not trolling then his/her news is more important than your little jibe.

-- Kyle (fordtbonly@aol.com), February 07, 2000.

S. Kohl what gender are you? I want to know before I ask you to mudwrestle.....c'mon guys KOS is gone.

-- Kyle (fordtbonly@aol.com), February 07, 2000.

Well, I saw the name S. Kohl in this forum long before I remember seeing a "Kyle", if that means anything....

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), February 07, 2000.

Kyle:

Go to Wal Mart and get a sense of humor on the cheap.

-- X (X@X.com), February 07, 2000.

Factfinder:

Interesting. You think Kyle is a double poster? Verryyyy interesting. Maybe Diane can put his IP here....that would help.

-- X (X@X.com), February 07, 2000.

Ignore these guys. Ask those questions and come back with some solid information. Agrilculture (our groceries) depends on oil. Farmers must be able to recupe their costs or go out of business. Oil insiders have a much greater understanding than we do about what's going on. That prediction of $1.75 could be right on, though I'm sure he was not supposed to tell.

-- John (LITTMANNJ@AOL.COM), February 07, 2000.

John:

S. Kohl may have mispoken, but if they buy gasoline to farm then they are really small time. I am small time and I am fully big D.

Best wishes,,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), February 07, 2000.

Kyle:

Do you have any evidence proving that Kohl's rumor is correct? Of course you don't!!!! So how can you judge the worth of the rumor? You can't, can you? Duh. But you are convinced of it's worth and truth, no? Oh yeah, you can say it will go up eventually. NO KIDDING!!! Over time, things fluctuate up and down in price. Brilliant deduction!!!!

S. Kohl: My debate is with Kyle not you. Keep posting those rumors. Your rumor may turn out to be true. I would not be surprised if it were. My intent is only to challenge Kyle to prove the importance of the rumor, something he obviously cannot do, even though he is convinced of its importance. Indulge us in our debate. :)

-- X (X@X.com), February 07, 2000.

Go up to 1.75? Outside Wilkes Barre it was just 1.79.

-- yes (get@more.info), February 07, 2000.

Yes:

Definitely bad news! Just think how high it would be if inflation weren't dead, as our government tells us.

-- haha (haha@haha.com), February 07, 2000.

Z1X4Y7 is largely correct. Most farmers I know use darn little gas compared to diesel -- which they can go through in prodigious amounts!

Now, if you're talking about some kind of truck crop (vegetables, for example), both gas and propane may come into play. The equipment you use can be a whole lot smaller, and you sometime start the crops in greenhouses.

It also may be pertinent that we need to watch for regional pricing trends. California is probably the largest vegetable producer in the continental U.S., and it is #1 in dairy (Wisconsin finally fell to #2, I believe).

NAFTA also is a factor. A significant percentage of your veggies come from south of the border. Which can mean that weather (think El Nino, or hurricanes) can be as big a factor in pricing as fuel prices in the U.S. That 'south of the border' fact also means it's a darn good idea to wash the heck out of any fruit or veggies you buy; herbicide and pesticide applicators don't even know how to spell E.P.A. in some of those places.

-- Redeye in Ohio (cannot@work.com), February 08, 2000.

Yes,

Each time I see a post like yours coming *from* PA it makes me wish I was back *in* PA, but as you might infer, I'm not.

Frank

-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.cam), February 08, 2000.

Well, here's what I've found out so far: Ampride is where prices are going to be raised, and its scheduled to happen in April. My friend is going to try to find out more specifics, and get back to me if there is any more information.

Right now, in Spearfish, SD, gas is already at around $1.70, but it's hard to tell if that is just an arbitrary price hike, because they often raise prices just for tourists (Mt. Rushmore, the black hills, hot springs, etc.). We're in eastern South Dakota, on the other hand, so if our prices go up, it won't be because of tourists--we don't have a lot of those... :-)

BTW, I'm not a farmer, so I don't know the ratio of their gasoline/diesel use. But price changes for either should be mostly related to changes in crude oil price, shouldn't they?

Oil is just a collection of long hydrocarbon chains, and breaking them into smaller chains is what I understand that refineries do. Kerosene, gasoline, and diesel are just names for hydrocarbon chains broken into different length-ranges.

For example, methane, ethane, propane, butane, pentane, hexane, heptane, and octane are names for carbon chains of length 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 respectively. Check out an organic chemistry textbook for more info on hydrocarbons.

Anyway, if I get more info, I'll post it.

-- S. Kohl (kohl@hcpd.com), February 08, 2000.

S. Kohl is not a troll, you maroon!

Thanks for the information Mystery Kohl Person...:)

-- Mumsie (shezdremn@aol.com), February 09, 2000.