Here is the link to the Gold Eagle article by Daniel Fisher:

Massive bear market imminent

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), February 06, 2000

Answers

Untrue! The current prosperity will never end. The money losing .com companies will never fail. It's the new economy. Inflation is dead. Earnings don't matter anymore. Bankruptcy is a thing of the past. Companies like Amazon are the new model. Amazon will always stay in business even though it can't stop losing money. Everything will be fine. The talking heads told me it would be.

-- X (X@X.com), February 06, 2000.

X, yeah, and everything will be great forever. Wonder why I'm still hanging on to my preps.

-- elskon (elskon@bigfoot.com), February 06, 2000.

For some further insights into the current market, visit: http:// csf.colorado.edu/forums/longwaves/feb00/ and glance at the "Let's talk oil and gold and politics" thread. Longwaves is devoted to cyclical stock market theories (Kontradieff -sp?- and others) and right now has a fair number of bears among its members. It's interesting and sometimes scary reading. some real insights into the gold market, too, for what it's worth. Andy would love it.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), February 06, 2000.

Unfortunately, all the statistics quoted are true. Also, unfortunately, the resulting predictions of eminent downfall have been made by the bearish (& goldish) forums for the last few years. They've all been wrong.

Not that things aren't overvalued. Not that things aren't precarious... but where is the indication that things are about to come tumbling down *now?* Who's to say the ramp up isn't just as likely to continue through this year- heck, through next year?

We're already in unprecedented territory. No one knows, bulls or bears. In fact, I wish now I hadn't turned bearish 18 months ago, when we were hearing then how tremendously overvalued the market was, and that the topple was due any minute now.

-- Scarecrow (Somewhere@over.rainbo), February 06, 2000.

Agree. The "big drop" has apparently been imminent for years now. Heck, Mr. G coined that now-oft-quoted phrase "irrational exuberance" back in 1996! If that market behavior was "irrational", whaddya call the current action? Psychotic?

I got out of the market 3Q last year and have watched in amazement as what I see as a "bubble" continued to expand. No serious regrets, though. As a very rich man once said, "Better to get out two months early than one month too late."

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), February 06, 2000.

see: The Golden Bear (investment links for ursids and aurophiles): http://www.provide.net/~aelewis/gold/goldbear.htm

-- alan (foo@bar.com), February 06, 2000.

All of you don't have faith! Put your money in money-losing .com stocks. Money-losing companies are where the action is. Join the rest of us sheeple investors in our 'financial death wish'. Enjoy the ride and deal with the consequences later. Money-losing companies just don't fail anymore. :)

-- X (X@X.com), February 06, 2000.

Those who made the decision to bail out of the stock market and into a safer alternative 18 months ago may have mad a WISE decision. Most NYSE and Nasdaq stocks topped out that far back. Money has gone into fewer and fewer stocks that are more heavily weighted in the major Indicies.

The ONLY thing that would change my view of the stock market would be a prolonged (many months) acceleration in the Advance/Decline line where the winners swamped losers by 3 or 4 to 1 on many days.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), February 06, 2000.

I remember hearing about the imminent stock collapse in 92, 93... the Elliot wavers had their proof, the market was overvalued back then, yadda yadda yadda.

Does this mean there won't be a stock market crash? Of course not! But just as there are people who believe with all their souls that the market is going to take a dump, there are those who believe it won't.

-- nobody (none@your.business), February 06, 2000.

Scarecrow,

In my opinion, staying in this bubble, I mean market, is like saying after three empty cylinders, the bullet might not come for another cylinder or two.

What's the point?

You know the market is vastly overvalued. Do you really want to take the risk that it will keep going up? That is a financial deathwish.

At least the people who blindly dump money into mutual funds can later claim that they didn't know that the manager was buying stocks that didn't actually make profits. That's the beauty of a mutual fund, you don't really have to take responsibility for buying Amazon.com yourself, you gave your money to an expert money manager (who gets fired, er... asked to step down, if he lags his benchmark; and who has been heard to say, "what's a bear market"? which of course is an honest statement, because he is only 29 years old)and then you can sue him later when you lose 70-80% of your retirement account. After all, this is America, so it can't be MY fault. Now whom do I sue?

-- J (Y2J@home.comm), February 06, 2000.

Scarecrow,

Same here!

-- JB (noway@jose.com), February 06, 2000.

Beta, it's what's for dinner!

Vix, real risk for real people!

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), February 06, 2000.