I had to come back and vent at the only place where I know I can find bears. This market is totally nuts! Tales of the absurd...

(1) Microsoft gets declared a monopoly and their stock does just fine.

(2) Intel raises 20% prior to an earnings announcement in anticipation of an 8% year over year rise in rates! I can get this with a municipal bond. Intel pulls off a 15% rise by stuffing their 8% rise in real earnings (a normally fatal "meeting the street estimate" event) with a 7% additional earnings growth due to by selling off their dot.com stocks. Of course, the stock jumps another 12% (32% overall in three weeks.)

(3) Interest rates rise four meetings in a row (with no end in sight) and the market thinks this is wonderful. They have now "factored them in" (aka, gleefully ignored them).

(4) Amazon has its biggest loss ever (totally crushing the optimistic expectations). However, by shuffling the books around to make it look like their book sales are finally showing a profit (Whew! Just in time!), the world can now rejoice that their business model is valid. Nobody seems to recognize that was a trivial bean counting trick in which all expenses were shoved into their "unprofitable" divisions. Eventually they will.

(5) The Nobel Foundation -- those folks who hand out prestigious awards for escellence in such subjects as economics -- has joined the ranks of non-profit organizations that have removed their equity limit on their investments. This is so that they may "provide larger monetary awards". Sheesh.

(6) The market spikes today because there are twice as many new jobs as expected with no increase in unemployment. Somebody should explain "inflationary pressures" to these kids.

I guess I've just never seen an honest-to-gosh "melt up".

I'm holding my gold and BEARX.

Anybody want to ad to the list of "Tales of the Absurd"?

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), February 04, 2000

Answers

Hi Dave,

Good to hear from you again. I never responded to your private edu query, but perhaps I will soon.

SOMETHING is happening today. I don't know if it's the Goldman-Sachs rumor or what, but gold is soaring through the roof (both spot and future) while the yield curve has not only flattened but inverted so quickly that it would make your head spin.

Meanwhile, stocks just kind of sit there, while oil futures have been creeping up and extending their peak through April.

The volatility is a little much for me, but I'll hold onto my gold for a little while longer (transaction costs are substantial enough) until it becomes clearer what the hell is going on.

I hate being a bear. It feels so unnatural to me. But dot.com is literally nuts. Stagflation here we come.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), February 04, 2000.

What we are seeing both economically and politically is the biggest con and swindle game in modern history.

It continues for two reasons; 1) We've gone from a logical/thinking population to a population that is motivated and reacts to emotion and frenzied trends, and 2) TPTB are playing this con-game out as long as possible to grab as much wealth and power before it collapses under it's own evil weight.

It's a set-up by design that will ultimately have to usher in a new system of economics and government. To alleviate the pain the average Joe Six Pack is going to suffer when this whole house of cards comes crashing down, there will be a push and demand for major reform and relief that will radically change our political and economic landscape.

The winers: TPTB who are now playing ball.

The losers: Freedom and Individual Rights and Privacies.

Most dolts simply cannot see the shape of the train bearing down on them as they are too busy playing on the tracks. But the pain will come, and then the screaming for relief of our own foolishness will usher in the unabashed elimination of our liberty forever.

-- Just Sharing (nothatitm@tt.ers), February 04, 2000.

I think there is an addiction to the thrill of profit or if you will; greed happening. Addictions, when full blown have no logic. Take the case of an alcoholic- they will risk losing everything to keep getting drunk/high; even if that might mean they lose their wife/husband, their house, family, and job. I think in the markets you have the investers continuing to risk in this highly unstable market to keep getting the "high"/profits without regard to the possible tremendous loss...just like an alcoholic.

-- Tim (tsqire@hotmail.com), February 04, 2000.

Please someone tell me what has happened to gold today, why up so much. I'm up here in blizzard country(Canada) and the gold rise has taken the TSE (stock index) up 4+% in one day. Wow am I ever lost. Has someone declared war or what.

Justthinkin.wild

-- justthinkin com (justthinkin@gold.com), February 04, 2000.

Dave:

Think back to your college days. Remember the economics and business majors. Nice people, but not really the brightest bulbs on the string. Well, they are managing these things. They do well when everything is stable [sort of like your local weatherperson on TV]. Stable could be no change/dropping market/ or rising market; just stable in its trend. This kind of instability is outside of their realm. If they make the correct decisions, it will be luck. This is why I never bought Decker's arguements.

Best wishes

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), February 04, 2000.

Anybody want to ad to the list of "Tales of the Absurd"?

Sorry Dave, I don't want to overload the server with the download of my list of "Tales of the Absurd". I enjoy reading TB2000.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), February 04, 2000.

It's nuts. Buy.com has an upcoming IPO. They lose money on EVERY item they sell, without accounting for the costs of running their show. Watch their stock get snapped up. Would you buy WalMart if they suddenly went public and were losing money hand over fist??

And it ain't TPTB manipulating the market, kids; it's just ordinary old boneheads, large and small, all betting on the come that a bigger sucker is around the corner. So far, so good...

-- I'mSo (lame@prepped.com), February 04, 2000.

Craziest damn thing...

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), February 04, 2000.

There is no difference today between the Nasdaq and Las Vegas. Practically everyone I know is pouring money into companies that they hadn't even heard of a month ago. They all have tips on Qualcomm, Veritas, you name it. They don't every know what a price/earnings ratio is and don't care.

The best investment advisor I know is the talk show host Bob Brinker. He advised his listeners three weeks ago to reduce their equity position by 60%. His main reason for saying this is the rising interest rates and an Nasdaq 100 Index with a P/E ratio over 100.

-- Mr. Adequate (mr@adequate.com), February 04, 2000.