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[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only] Author Comment Riverwn Moderator (2/2/00 4:25:09 pm) Reply Possible Force Majuere in the US !!-4th Opis alert-wed. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is the 4th OPIS alert (wed)

2000-02-02 11:19:25 EST ***MAPCO PROPANE ALLOCATION PLAN SPARKS ANGER Mid-America Pipeline, a division of Williams Energy Services, will launch a propane allocation that will take effect tomorrow morning. The move has prompted an angry outcry from suppliers as well as marketers across many Midwest states. The allocation goes into effect at 7 am Thursday morning, February 3. "In order to build inventory at our terminals, we will be shutting down all Mid-America propane terminals (except Hobbs) from midnight, Wednesday, February 2, 2000 through 6:59 a.m. Thursday, February 3, 2000," the company told suppliers via letter. The MAPCO line is capable of shipping 56,000 b/d out of wells and there was no word as of presstime about how deep the reduction will be or how long it will last. Details of the structure of the allocation will not be available until midday today, sources said. Yesterday, Williams notified its Mid-America customers that it was having "meter rate issues and possible brine problems," and that flow rates would be reduced on "all shipments out of Conway." Meanwhile, the spread between spot propane at Conway and Mont Belvieu is now running at more than 13cts gal as of yesterday. The spread between the two markets was as high as 19-20cts gal just a few days ago at the end of January. A spread wide enough to support shipping bbls south out of Conway has persisted for several months, according to OPIS spot data. There is still some question about whether or not shipments south to Belvieu are included in the allocation. OPIS tried to contact Williams pipeline personnel this morning but none had returned calls as of presstime. "They should suspend Belvieu shipments of propane if they haven't already, and declare force majeure on Belvieu deliveries until they get their problems straightened out," said one marketer. Belvieu traders were not able to report any declaration of force majeure or suspension of shipments to Belvieu as of presstime. Midwest marketers said that demand has not been spectacular this winter. "The demand has mostly been going south to Belvieu. Demand at the terminals in the Midwest is not even as strong as in a normal winter," said one large multi-state marketer. Marketers reported that there has been demand at some MAPCO terminals, including the Cantril terminals, to truck bbls to Nashville and as far as Georgia. The line going south to Belvieu was placed on allocation some time ago due to strong demand by shippers to move propane to Belvieu, sources said. Diane T. Miller

"Be the change in the world, you want to see." (Ghandi)

JayCee Moderator (2/2/00 11:35:08 pm) Reply Re: Possible Force Majuere in the US !!-4th Opis alert-wed. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- --------- It will be interesting to see if they will actually declare a Force Majuere. It has such a negitive sound, knida like Y2K. BG

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-- Zguy (its@bubble.con), February 03, 2000

Answers

Wow Robert!

How did you do that? You gotta teach me!

Zguy

-- Zguy (its@bubble.con), February 03, 2000.

* * * 20000203 Thursday

Zguy:

Process:

1. Open New Message (MIME) from Outlook Express v5.x

2. At target page, right-click, "Select ALL"

3. At target page, right-click, "Copy"

4. With focus/cursor @ New Message (Edit) window, right-click, "Paste"

5. Select "Source" Tab @ New Message

6. Highlight EVERYTHING between ... {highlight} ...

7. Right-click, "Copy"

8. Return Focus to "Answer:" message box at TimeBomb 2000

9. Right-click, "Paste"

Voila! ...

Regards, Bob Mangus

* * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus1@yahoo.com), February 03, 2000.

...

6. Highlight EVERYTHING between [BODY] ... highlighted ... [/BODY]

...

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus1@yahoo.com), February 03, 2000.

"Well, isn't that special?"

Looks like somebody is dropping some broad hints of real Y2K trouble without actually using the dreaded "Y" word. Could somebody tell me when "Y2K" became a curse word in PR circles? Was it during the rollover? Somehow, I musta missed it. Whatever the case, its obvious that nobody is gonna ever admit to a crisis being caused by Y2K but if ever there was a clear cut inference for Y2K without it being stated directly, this must be it.

"having meter rate issues"

Isn't this what the embeddeds experts had been saying would be one of the ramifications of Y2K? I recall that as being the case. In fact, some of the "experts" had indicated that the end of January going into February could prove to be highly problematic as "buffers" overflowed and the end of month transition brought hidden problems to the surface. Looks like this is what has happened here on the first day of the new month. After all, pipelines had that different SCADA configuration from power companies. Refineries were also different from the power companies in SCADA configurations and usages.

Now, it seems to me that we've had an inordinate amount of pipeline problems in every part of the world in both summer and winter conditions (both sides of the equator). Plus, no one can deny that refineries are having problems. The only thing being denied is that all of these problems are Y2K related. EXCEPT for the fact that the oil companies never have denied that specific problems are Y2K related. At least not that I recall. They just ignore the issue.

You have to be really pigheaded, blind or stupid not to begin to put 2+2 together here to realize that you've got a Y2K formula for petro-industry problems that has been percolating for the past month. At least if you read all the "expert" stuff posted here and elsewhere last year about the oil industry and Y2K. It seems to me that maybe all those folks saying the oil industry would have Y2K problems and that they'd show up maybe later in January or early February were right after all. Looks like a 'thousand cuts' situation to me.

Course, some would say I should stick to market forecasting. (some newbies wouldn't know I'm a retired commodities trader specializing in technicals trading). Which I know some are probably gonna ask me, "how high the market." Well I've posted from time to time at Downstreamer's Forum on this but right now, to me the market oscillator readings indicate the market is digesting the recent gains. The NYMEX also doubled the margin requirements meaning traders have to double the money they plunk down for a position. That has a tendency to "chill" a market for a few days and sometimes will cap a market run if that run was just wild speculation. In this case, though, we've got REAL shortages of commodities and margin req's can only do a temporary chill. The market is looking to consolidate its gains. It's still running far ahead of its support and just broke thru a resistance line created by recent market price peaks. This indicates the market is NOT finished with its Bullish run, but simply pausing to catch its breath before plunging ahead. I still see a run back to $30 as being very likely and probably $32.00. Will it get to $40? I dunno. It's possible technically but the real driving force will be fundamental factors. Given the fact that inventories are so low (Whyizzit?) and we're gonna come back into peak season with a lot of refineries going down for maintenance (and doing so a little earlier than usual and for longer than usual) indicates are much greater likelihood for price gains to remain at these recent higher levels.

There are a lot of little signs that IMHO are indicating the shortages in product are hi-tech related and NOT old equip. or equipment run to hard. Some of the pipelines problems are with relatively new construction projects.

Its also NOT weather related as you'll see in the newstory above sentence ...

"Demand at the terminals in the Midwest is not even as strong as in a normal winter," ...

and despite all the arguing about prior history vs current stats, one thing does stand out: that in January, the oil industry just doesn't have problems unless its severe weather, which most of the current problems showed during mild temps or in far southern climate. BUT ALSO ... didja notice that its happening around the world? Asia, South America, Middle East, Africa. Just a swarm of problems. Yet everyone wants to swallow the excuses that its Opec, or equipment being run too hard or weather or ____ fill-in-the-blank. Well, this is not the situation, and the above case is a prime example where someone didn't provide sufficient excuses and we're seeing the tell- tale terminology that tips us off that we've got a SCADA embeddeds problem occuring just when the "experts" figured would be a window of opportune problems.

So the Polly gloaters were wrong. It's not over. All of the doomers who threw in the towel were wrong too. It doesn't look like TEOTWAWKI, but it ain't gonna be BITR neither. (Dr. Schenk take notice-- doesn't look like you were completely wrong and neither was the polly camp completely right). 20% jumps in fuel ain't BITR. Folks shivering because they've no heating oil ain't gonna remember it as a BITR either. And we don't know how many may have died from Y2K and it's related effects. But the media and the pollies have done a good job of destroying the doomers all the while ignoring that the glass is half full of problems after all. It's amazing how perceptions can distort reality.

Y2K is already bad for the folks who've had to suffer in this oil crisis related to Y2K. Still looks like a "3" right now moving towards a "4" or a "5." Imagine that. And the pollies call this forum "Oilbomb 2000"... hey maybe that's because Y2K IS "bombing" the oil industry, but like the proverbial tree falling in the forest, the media is not paying attention to record it as Y2K. That would be politically incorrect, I guess.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), February 03, 2000.

Midwesterners understand that the winter isn't over yet.

In Minnesota, when I was growing up, February was always the coldest month. And I've seen snow in May in Saint Paul.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), February 03, 2000.

It's a BITR, as long as you redefine BITR to mean "bite in the rear".

-- human bean (how@dee.pod), February 03, 2000.

Just a spelling correction so that people
don't continue the error.

Force majeure

French for an act of God; an inevitable,
unpredictable act of nature, not dependent
on an act of man. Used in insurance contracts
to refer to acts of nature such as earthquakes
or lightning.

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), February 03, 2000.

LOL human bean. You KNOW what the meaning of IS is!!!

>"<

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), February 03, 2000.

By the way ... that should be

FORCE MANEURE.

>"<

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), February 03, 2000.

Force Maneure

The French method of feeding BS to
the public.

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), February 03, 2000.

Notice that metering problems are part of the official mix now. Metering and flow control is sounding like a repeating mantra.

And how would that be related to an OPEC policy?

NOT.

-- paul leblanc (bronyaur@gis.net), February 03, 2000.

Thanks Robert!

I'm going to get myself a copy of Outlook Express and give it a Go!

I had no idea that somthing like that was even Possible!

Thanks Again,

Zguy

-- Zguy (its@bubble.con), February 04, 2000.

Zguy,
Yep, gives a post Impact. (grin)

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), February 04, 2000.