2000-02-02 15:40:39 EST

***OUTAGES OF NORTHEASTERN OIL WORSEN;

SPOT PRICES SOAR

Pay no attention to that March NYMEX price today. It is not indicative of  the soaring prices being paid for prompt heating oil, diesel, jet and  kerosene at northeastern bulk locations. Prices this afternoon have soared to  40-50cts gal over the NYMEX and there are many many instances of terminals  with no fuel for oil-starved jobbers, retailers, and end-users.

NYMEX March heating oil futures ended the day around 75.40cts gal, showing  a loss of 1.79cts gal on the session. But some spot prices in the northeast  are up 20-25cts gal on the day, with desperate buyers not finding product  even at the elevated prices.

Latest word indicated that buyers had paid 45cts gal over the NYMEX for  prompt heating oil, or more than $1.20 gal. Buyers were bidding but not  finding low sulfur diesel in New York Harbor at $1.22 gal and kerosene buyers  couldn't find product at 50cts gal over the NYMEX.

Outages were more the rule than the exception. There was no No. 2 oil in  New Haven, and Providence was about to run out, sources said. Boston was very  low on diesel and heating oil, with virtually no kerosene. There was no  diesel or heating oil to be found at Long Island terminals and Newark had  barely any low sulfur diesel at its numerous terminals.

The outages extended south and west, reaching out like tentacles as  desperate buyers attempt to truck material in from ordinarily unreasonable  distances. Baltimore was getting some resupply but there had been outages of  both low and high sulfur No. 2 oil in the last 24 hours. Richmond was at tank  bottoms and sources said that only Amerada Hess had product in the Norfolk  area.

Deepwater terminals were the hardest hit, thanks to high winds and rough  seas which have made it impossible to unload or dispatch barges in recent  days. Until the barges move out of their present weather-bound state,  physical oil will be tough to locate from New York north to Portland, Maine.

Not all suppliers are reacting equally to the replacement costs. There  appears to be rising concern about state or federal investigations into the  rampant run-up in prices, with talk of possible subpoenas issued in  Connecticut. Some suppliers, most notably Mobil, appear to be allocating fuel  and keeping prices well under replacement costs, perhaps because of this  concern.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Gulf Coast has barely reacted to the latest N.Y.  surge. Prices there for high sulfur are pegged around 1cts gal over the  NYMEX, or about 76.5cts gal with diesel about another penny higher.

- Tom Kloza, tkloza@opisnet.com

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), February 02, 2000

Answers

And, for what it's worth, the weather bureau is forecasting below normal temperatures in the Northeast for the next 10 days.

Got sleeping bags?

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), February 02, 2000.

Thanks for the post Rocky. Norfolk is a local call for me, so I'll follow-up on the availability for this area.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), February 02, 2000.

Of the 11 companies listed for Norfolk Feul Oil & Heating, 9 shared one phone number, and 2 share one other phone number. They switched to an after hours answering service who did not have any figures re: prices charged today or tomorrow, nor knowledge of stock.

Amerada Hess Corporation does not know if they are the only local distributor with No. 2 in stock, and refused to disclose the price charged because it is "priveledged information."

A Area Fuel Oil Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5569 Amerada Hess Corporation 4020 Buell Street, Chesapeake, VA 23324 (757) 543-2061

don't dist:

============

Action Fuels Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5569

Beamon & Lassiter Oil CO Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5569

Discount Fuels Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5569 Domestic Industries Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5100

Mini Gallon Oil Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5100 Oil Supply CO Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5569

Pallett Oil CO Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5569 Parker Fuel Oil CO Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5100 Southside Fuels Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5569 Wise R M Inc Norfolk, VA 23502 (757) 545-5569

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), February 02, 2000.

The futures exchange trade paper oil products. There is a flood of selling in paper oil. The futures will only be priced at spot at the time of contract delivery. Clinton's secret use of Monetary Stabilization Fund is supressing all the commodity markets to maintain the appearance of low inflation.

Gotta protect bubble.com!

-- wishy (Wishy@washy.cold), February 02, 2000.

Today's New Haven Register carried a large article about the critical shortfall of home heating oil.

This paper has a website, but I'm not sure if the article will be on it. Will look.

Thanks for a most informative post.

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), February 02, 2000.

You can spew out all your fancy math and twisted facts and figures that you like.......

Bottom line is oil went down today........it is actually lower than it was a couple of weeks ago when the extreme doomers were predicting prices of $80.00 a barrel within one month.......

Same old, Same old.......doomers with ridiculous prognostications..........never coming true.......then on to another ridiculous theory trumpeted with much fanfare.......etc.!!!!

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), February 02, 2000.

Here is the article from the New Haven Register. ----------------------------------------------------------- FAIR USE: Education and Discussion Only!

>>> Death notices Looking for...? Weather Corrections Lottery Obituaries U.S./World Tides The Blotter Senior Boom Oil trucks line up at Amerada-Hess oil terminal in New Haven Tuesday to claim a share of a limited supply of heating oil in the region. Steffen Eve Cretella/Register Wed, Feb 02, 2000 Oil shortage leaves some customers cold By Edward J. Crowder, Register Staff Some of the region's heating oil dealers were unable to fill their trucks and make deliveries Tuesday, leaving customers with the prospect of no heat. Smaller dealers and discount oil retailers that don't have contracts with wholesalers said they're having trouble finding anyone to fill up their delivery trucks because of a fast-dwindling regional supply. State environmental officials Tuesday were mulling a measure to loosen up supplies by letting wholesalers sell fuel that contains too much sulfur to pass environmental muster under normal conditions. But as of Tuesday evening, that was small consolation for Sharon Lewis of A Smart Buy Inc. in North Branford, a small dealer with three trucks. "There is not a drop of oil," said Lewis, who estimates she missed 50 deliveries Tuesday. She said one of her residential customers had completely run out of fuel Tuesday afternoon. Others, such as Hamden businessman Don Kim, were worried about running out. Kim, a customer of A Smart Buy, said he'd be out of business today if he couldn't buy more heating oil, which powers the laundry boilers at his business, Perfection Cleaners, on Dixwell Avenue. He said he tried other dealers, but they turned him down, too. "All of them said there is not any oil," said Kim. Shutting the business will be an inconvenience both for him and his customers, he said. Several "full-service" heating oil dealers contacted Tuesday said they've been able to keep their trucks full and make good on all deliveries. Oil delivery trucks were lined up to restock at wholesalers that were still selling fuel on Tuesday, including the Amerada Hess facility on River Street in New Haven. Sal Camera of Alpine Heating & Cooling in East Haven, said he was able to keep his trucks full all day, despite the shortage. He said Hess made good on its contract with his company. "They've done everything that a wholesaler could possibly do to keep us supplied with fuel," he said. Other dealers weren't so lucky. "I'm getting calls from other oil companies, saying, 'Can you please sell me some oil?'" said Sam Livieri Jr. of Apple Oil in West Haven. A measure by state environmental officials may help clear up the crisis today, said Charles Isenberg, director of the Independent Connecticut Petroleum Association. The group represents 350 dealers that supply 90 percent of the state's heating oil. The association pressed the state Department of Environmental Protection on Tuesday to temporarily ease environmental restrictions about sulfur content of heating oil, Isenberg said. If approved, wholesalers could sell existing stores of fuel that are slightly too sulfer-rich, he said. The DEP was considering the measure Tuesday evening and could pass it by today. "It's just a temporary waiver," Isenberg said. Sulfur from fossil fuels causes acid rain and contributes to pollution. In the next few days, tankers and barges will arrive to deliver cleaner oil to the region's storage tanks, Isenberg said. "The light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer," he said. The region's heating oil customers have suffered in recent weeks as rising prices and short supplies have forced many to keep thermostats low despite frigid temperatures outside. Retail prices shot up to nearly $2 a gallon at some dealers last week, although they have since receded slightly. The shortage is largely blamed on production cutbacks by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), though state officials are looking into it. BACK TO TOP See All FrontPage Stories Classifieds | Local News | Entertainment | Town Talk | U.S. & World News Personals | The Daily Fix | Sports Central | Home Questions or Comments? Email the editor or see our FAQs page. ) 2000 ,CT CENTRAL <<<<

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), February 02, 2000.

Not as much oil is coming out of the middle east as is being officially reported. That's a fact. From on the ground. There. You can believe it or not, I don't care. You'll soon find out it's true, anyway.

-- Dog Gone (dawgawn@yahoo.com), February 02, 2000.

There is a sad ring of truth in that article. Bottom line is there is very little oil coming in. A fact's a fact. Articles like this seem to attest that the oil situation is much worse than it appears on the surface. I think this is undeniably the case. Seems at this pace an open air crisis would have to manifest very soon (unfortunately). I think it's later than imagined. We are literally running out of oil/ oil related products which will affect everything. I don't think this is alarmist but is in fact happening. No one wants to see the suffering of others, but unless people wake up to what is actually in the process of happening, that's exactly what we're about to see on a massive scale.

-- Patrick Lastella (Lastella1@aol.com), February 02, 2000.

Hyperinflation just around the corner.

-- Ishkabibble (ishman@home.com), February 02, 2000.

---gee, maybe mr doomer-ranker needs to go up there someplace in new england, find some guy about to run out of heating oil, or maybe a teamster trying to get from point a to b, tell one of those guys that they are nuts, that they are idiots, that they are hallucinating, there's plenty of oil, right to their face. Then maybe mr oil-polly can report back on the status of his broken nose he's likely to receive from one of those guys. Would be a much more effective and interesting post, to be sure. Maybe we'll get a pic, too

-- itsureiseasy (tocallpeoplenames@notinfrontofthem.troll.polly), February 02, 2000.

http://www.ctcentral.com/jrc-html/papers/fullstory_aNH020297851.html

That's the address for the story in the New Haven Register. For those among us that don't want to just take Irving's word for it :)

-- Arewyn (artemis31@msn.com), February 02, 2000.

Dog Gone

What kind of detail can you give us about the Mideast? What are your contacts saying? Since you have knowledge of the oil bus. can you extrapolate on what this might mean price wise for us poor bastards in the northeast?

-Burnin wood for heat but earl for hot water

-- Scottsworth (NewEnglander@Ct.com), February 02, 2000.

Arewyn...thanks!

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), February 02, 2000.

Times like this make me sad that so many would not listen to a message of prudent preparation...and are now at the mercy of a just- in-time supply line...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), February 02, 2000.

Craig, your comment illustrates just how shallow your knowledge really is.

Read these two paragraphs again:

"NYMEX March heating oil futures ended the day around 75.40cts gal, showing a loss of 1.79cts gal on the session. But some spot prices in the northeast are up 20-25cts gal on the day, with desperate buyers not finding product even at the elevated prices.

Latest word indicated that buyers had paid 45cts gal over the NYMEX for prompt heating oil, or more than $1.20 gal. Buyers were bidding but not finding low sulfur diesel in New York Harbor at $1.22 gal and kerosene buyers couldn't find product at 50cts gal over the NYMEX. "

What you should see is that there is a big disconnect between the prices at which product for immediate delivery is being sold for and the prices for delivery in March (the futures contracts).

You should also notice that buyers (big distributors, major oils) were bidding a bundle over the futures contract prices -- but there simply isn't product available.

If you care to think a bit, you'll realize that very few people can burn March heating oil in February.

Please, try to think things through, Craig.

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), February 03, 2000.