DD 1stLight posts over at Yourdon's HumptyDumpty forum

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

For you non-TB2000ers, this gal is supposedly an oil industry expert that posted some doom and gloom on inevitable rollover probs in the oil biz. Is she credible?

Here's Ed Yourdon's intro and DD's post:

Folks,

DD Reed (aka DD 1stlight) attempted to post a message to our forum early this morning, before she had subscribed as a member. I'm going to contact her to explain the usual protocol that only subscribed members can post messages -- but I felt that it was worth-while to make an exception to the rule this time, and share her message with you.

Ed

---------- From: "eGroups.com Manager" Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2000 05:55:05 -0000 To: ed@yourdon.com Subject: MODERATE -- 1stlight@xxx.yyy wants to post a message to humptydumptyy2k

From: "DD Reed" To: humptydumptyy2k@eGroups.com Subject: Yes, I am still around LOL Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2000 20:59:06 -0800

It's that little ole oil lady again, and yes I have been a good bit busy. It is without any glee at all that I look at the past couple of week's events and with a bit of dread that I look forward to the coming 2 weeks. We should have a fairly good idea of where we will stand by mid February, but remember that as the buffers fill etc. we can/will continue to experience NEW problems through at least the middle of April and on.

I have seen field technicians in the field that have not been out of the office in over 10 years etc. and they all say that to "breath a word" of what they are out there doing has been strictly veto'd. Enough threeats that they will only say that they CANNOT say, so then I say 'yeah I know the deal" and we all 'talk around the elephant sitting in the living room" LOL.

Remember that these are guys that will tell me most anything most times. Still enough gets said, like talk about all the liquid nitrogen trucks sitting around little towns so the field trucks can re-fill, the fact that many have had NO days off since the end of December and all requests for same are severly discouraged, etc. Folks these guys are very good at what they do and are doing a remarkable job, but they are getting very tired and run down, they cannot keep this pace up for much longer.

Problems are rampant in the fields, gathering line controllers etc. etc. This is not the stuff you will probably ever hear about in any news story because it is an area of the business that is almost invisable to most. The ball is rolling, we will just have to see how much bigger it gets.

I am sticking close to home, not taking any work over 1 tank of gas from the house and am carrying 10 gallons in the trunk (yes I know it's dangerous, but far less than not being able to get home). I am about as far from an alarmist type as you get, but prudent is prudent.

Anyone else figuring up the %'s of crude and refined product shortfalls? Don't unless you have a strong constitution.

Thanks for the invite and will look forward to keeping in touch.

DD1stLight

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thoughts?

o)<

mike

-- mike (mike@knuckledragger.com), January 31, 2000

Answers

I said it once, I'll say it again:

$30 dollar oil means we are facing something as important as the (1) Iran hostages crisis or (2) the Iran-Irak war or (3) Desert Storm.

Something is smelly in Denmark.

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 31, 2000.


1. What are "gathering line controllers"?

2. What is the significance of the N trucks? I guess that a pipeline that normally provides N must be down, but what do they use the N for?

Don't we have someone who can explain the working of the oil fields to us. Please someone, beg RC to return.

Taz

-- Taz (Tassi123@aol.com), January 31, 2000.


Thanks Mike. Spooky stuff.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 31, 2000.

This points up the problem of our dependence on oil as the fuel for our economic engine. It was the easy and cheap way to go. If they can patch it together for another twenty years what will that buy us??? We will only be further enthrawled to it. It was time to switch twenty years ago. Now it will be much, mcuh harder to do. I doubt we will take the hint even this time around. Long term planning is not part of our culture.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), January 31, 2000.

Taz, I don't think N2 is pumped by any pipelines. Normally nitrogen is separated from the air using cryrogenics. If they need to truck it in from somewhere else it suggests that an onsite cryrogenic separation unit is down.

Nitrogen is the cheapest gas used for stirring and agitating to promote reactions. Nitrogen is also a super cold coolant.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 31, 2000.



I think N is used to pressurize, cool, flush out O2, but I don't know any specifics.

-- ..- (d@d.d), January 31, 2000.

Grandson called from Fargo, ND about an hour ago and he is stunned by the jump in diesel, he's a long distance driver. In Fargo, this a.m., it's at $1.49. He said that many independents are frantic as they're only clearing about 50 cents a mile at these prices.

Also, he just returned from the Southeast, and prices aren't any better there.

He works for a large trucking company, and said that he can't see how they'll maintain their rates if this continues. If freight goes up...prices go up, right?

His question to me was, "...does anyone know why this is happening?" I've no answer. Hang on to the preps.

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), January 31, 2000.


First, I am not too sure that Ed wants stuff from his list/site cross posted without permission or that of the original author. Think hard about that.

Second, Nitrogen is often used to pressurize pipes and conduits that must be kept void of air or flushed. Underground electrical coduits are often given some N pressure to keep them dry and stable.

Anytime such systems are opened up they must be re-flushed to clear our air.

-- art welling (art@thatplace.com), January 31, 2000.


It is very true that the future of the refineries is our future,I as a very concerned person have but one question to ask. Has anyone checked out the credibility of DD or does anyone know for sure she is who she says she is? I am not saying I don't beleive this is happening I'm just saying has anyone really checked her out. LOL I guess thats two questions. :o)

-- David Whitelaw (Dande53484@aol.com), January 31, 2000.

David check out the archives under Oil.

-- (karlacalif @aol.com), January 31, 2000.


Sorry about that. Being new here I just wanted to make sure she knew what she was talking about. Now I really am worried. If anyone wants me I'll be in the archives.

-- David Whitelaw (Dande53484@aol.com), January 31, 2000.

David -- Nobody knows who DD 1stLight is: but the online bio, so to speak, has her as a native american woman with contacts deep within some facet of the Electrical Industry. I believe she was first introduced by Jim Lord or Gary Nort -- North I think may have some posts on her, under his Electrical Grid category. She forecast some really serious conseqwuences for teh Grid, in particuilar, following rollover. This is the first anyone's heard fromher since early-mid December. The rest of us also wonder about her reliability, credentials, contacts, veracity, identity, etc. We still don't know ......... Ack!!

>"<

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), January 31, 2000.


Squirrel Hunter,

I think DD1 First Light's Bio had nothing to do with the electrical grid. She claimed to be a insider of the oil industrie. She claimed to be 30 years in the oil business as a consultant to all the biggies.

-- Gambler (scotanna@arosnet.com), January 31, 2000.


Actually, I think DD first became active as a resource during an open chat on a storable food website (can't remember the exact one). A&L and others can give the details...

Anyone have the link to this original post and Humpty Dumpty?

Thanks,

Mike

====================================================================

-- Mike Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 31, 2000.


She first came into the limelight as a result of a Tuesday night chat in a chat room on DAlnet called #lumen_foods with a couple of guys called "Riker" and .... I don't recall the other guy at the moment. It was picked up by Gary North and posted on his site. There should be something in the North Archives. This was about October.. early November. She claimed the possiblity of a 70% drop-off in oil production by the 3rd week of January.

I have no idea is she is who she says she is, or if she knows what she is talking about. The following Tuesday, I visited the chat room and talked with her personally. She was very polite and "seemed" credible as much as one can tell through digital media. At one time, I had copies of the conversations saved on my hard drive. I may have deleted it.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), January 31, 2000.



The other guy's name was Greg Caton. Flint questioned him (Caton) as a reliable source because he was a vendor of emergency food (soybeans). I don't know.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), January 31, 2000.

To those who wish to know
Gathering Line Controllers are command and control devices used to facilitate the joining of loads of dissimilar pressures from separate pipes into one common load. Typically you will see these controllers in things from refineries to large ships (which are really big steel boxes holding thousands of feet of pipe and a deck over the top). Gathering line contollers have to have a logic element and one or more sensor elements. These devices can be quite complex as small scale circuitry controllers go. They will sometimes incorporate pressure regulator controls within the sensor units.

These units are also used where you split up pipeline loads into other size pipes.

Ever see a technician with a pc or a device that once they get tuned, they are loath to even look at, let alone touch, for fear of breaking the thing? Line controllers are frequently like this. Nasty, ill tempered beasts of machines that frequently will kill you if you are around when they smeg up.



-- pliney the younger (pliney@puget.sound.old.pipe.man), January 31, 2000.


I found it. The chat conversation was originally posted here on TB2000 at the following thread: http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001gf6

It was then picked up by North and he posed to her 6 questions which she supposedly answered. The answers are posted at:

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/6677v

I guess we will soon know if she is credible or not. Gas here in Miami as only gone up a nickel since before Christmas.

-- JoseMIami (caris@prodigy.net), January 31, 2000.


Well I'm back from the oil archives and let me tell you that I am more confused now then ever. I found her interview with North but the following answers to the post leave me wondering.

-- David Whitelaw (Dande53484@aol.com), January 31, 2000.

"Ever see a technician with a pc or a device that once they get tuned, they are loath to even look at, let alone touch, for fear of breaking the thing?"

Ever own an English car?

-- Sluggo (sluggo@your.head), February 01, 2000.


Jose, Based on her past prediction that Y2K would bring 40-60% loss of oil and severe problems (power outages implied, due to running out of "three week supplies") by the THIRD WEEK IN JANUARY, I wouldn't hold my breath, lol. How soon they forget.....

I did find the DD1stlight posts entertaining :)

-- FactFinder (david@bzn.com), February 01, 2000.


She talks a good story but I will take what she says with a grain of salt. Thanks for all the input .

-- David Whitelaw (Dande53484@aol.com), February 01, 2000.

Yeah,I would have to agree. While there are a lot of newstories being posted here about pipeline and oil refinery problems, the price of regular gas here has only gone up a nickle since before Christmas, which can easily be explained in terms other than y2k. I am increasinly sceptical about anty y2k effect on the economy, much less the infrastructure. Looks to me like they got it fixed! hats off to John Koskinan.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), February 02, 2000.

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