Stock Market Questiongreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
There was a posting awhile ago about a prediction that if the market fell below 1059 (or something like that) it would signal big probems. When I saw the prediction I thought it was interesting but I did not print or save the info.
I was watching the stock channel and heard the same information there. It was given so fast I didn't get the name of the person that said it or the exact figure.
Does anyone know about that prediction, who said it, or a link?
-- monique (email@example.com), January 29, 2000
Could it be the 'Elliot Wave Theory'? If I remember correctly there was an individual (Comeau?) posting a couple of weeks back who professed that this formula is foretelling of an inevitable stock market decline.
-- EXIT 316 (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 29, 2000.
If the stock market falls below 1059, we ALL got big problems way before then!!!
-- Y2Kook (Y2Kook@usa.net), January 29, 2000.
Kook, that was simply a typo. No big deal.
-- ... (...@...com), January 29, 2000.
The 10590 number is an upper level for the market rise, provided by one analyst (Comeau?), but it was shattered and is no longer a viable number. BTW, anyone who uses Elliott Wave to make absolute, cast in stone, predictions is a fool. The Eliott Wave theory will provide guidelines and alternatives. The market, itself will tell a good EWT technician which of several alternatives will play out.
One of the best I've found is Steve Hochberg, who does the short term market updates for Bob Prechter, at:
A href="http://www.elliottwave.com/">Elliott Wave Theory This is a good page to browse if you're interested in technical analysis of markets (and not only the stock market, but bonds, US$, gold, silver)
There are two approaches to market analysis, technical and fundamental. One technical indicator that is used is the degree of retracement that a correction makes (or the amount of upward retracement in a declining market. Retracement points typically are 38%, 50%, 62% and a last ditch 78.6%.
The 62% retracement of the market rise from October on to the peak is 10654. This is the most common large retracemetn, therefore, it's an important technical indicator. One respected analyst gives the range of from 10500 to 10654.
Hope this helps explain where those numbers come from.
The 78.6 retracement level is 10356, so that if this point is broken the trend would have to be considered to be down. This is a last ditch point.
-- rocky (email@example.com), January 29, 2000.
Thanks for the responses, and sorry for the typo!
-- monique (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 29, 2000.