Poll: When do you sound the "Y2K All Clear" alert?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I thought it would be interesting to see how the patrons of this newsgroup breakdown in terms of "when is it safe to make a final call on Y2K?", and go on with "business as usual". I've broken it down into the following ranges:

1.) Never was a problem 2.) Jan. 1, 2000 3.) Feb. 31, 2000 4.) Mar. 1, 2000 5.) April 1, 2000 6.) July 1, 2000 7.) Jan. 1, 2001, or later

My own thoughts are April 1, 2000. By then we will start seeing the results of 1st quarter report generation, and have had ample time for cascading errors to start to cause problems significant enough to not be blamed on ordinary failures. The oil problems should have gotten mainstream attention by then, if they continue on their present course. Finally, if there are going to be tax processing problems, the rumblings about refund delays and accounting errors of significant magnitude to give what I believe will be the final acid test for Y2K. I'll be willing to say at that point whether Y2K was merely a "bump in the road".

-- John Cauthen (johnr@cetlink.net), January 27, 2000

Answers

11, heh.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 27, 2000.

I'm going on with my life, but watching, certainly. Look at what's happening with oil. Is it Y2K related? Who knows. But I do know it matches some Y2K predictions and came as no surprise to those who followed the thinking here. I haven't received my bank statements or credit card bill yet for month one, either.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 27, 2000.

Yep, 11 or so sounds about right Hokie, could still reach higher, I guess time will certainly tell.

-- Michael (michaelteever@buffalo.com), January 27, 2000.

I will not holler "all clear" until I see how the IRS is doing at getting the refunds out.

If they have any hangups, I expect a very lively Year 2000 presidential campaign!!!

-- JIT (justintime@rightnow.net), January 27, 2000.


I think I'll chose #3 Feb. 31,2000 . If that date IS ever seen then I will KNOW that Y2K is not a problem.
Even Captain Kirk would have a problem leaping that many days.(warp 12 straight into the sun,etc...)

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 27, 2000.


You put that in there just to test us,right?(grin)

Oops.
chose=choose

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 27, 2000.

Those folk much wiser than me often give mid April as the 'magic' date for "all clear". Oil may well prove to be a whole other issue altogether--whether or not directly y2k related. If the pumps run dry or just high priced it ain't really gonna matter why.

I suspect, however, that due to the commonly used "sliding windows" approach to fixing the date problem--we will continue to get bitten in the ass periodically for much of this century...probably at times that will be most inconvenient. Doubt those times will require y2k type preps, but who knows?

Still, how the heck did all those countries that did virtually nothing get by??? Just turning the date back would postpone things-- maybe indefinitely? Did the USA take things too seriously? (I don't think so--but a considerable part of the rest of the world feels that way).

-- Preps (AreBeingPutToGood@Use.com), January 27, 2000.


Preps, how shall we ever know, the task, we have been given? This was the "Mother of Tasks" And remember, none of us escape, this life, alive.

-- Great Stories (of century @turnover.com), January 27, 2000.

It's over dude.

TEOTWAWKI was the scenario I was afraid of (and prepped for..).

It's pretty obvious that the grid stayed up, and other than isolated glitches the worse thing we have to face is boredom.

I'll still keep 3 months of preps.. You never know about earthquakes/etc.. But Y2K is going the way of disco.

I'm kind of dissapointed, in truth. I was hoping for some adventure.

-- bryce (bryce@seanet.com), January 27, 2000.


Y2K will never be over. Its going to be real bad. Really, really bad. There will be no accidental survivors. 11 is a joke, 111 is more accurate but possibly too optimistic.

I was always a doomer, and seeing the I am intellectually and morally superior I will never admit defeat. I cannot be wrong!!!!!!

-- Billy Vyper (billy_vyper@postmark.net), January 27, 2000.



Hummm..

I'm in the computer field... two major hits have happened, plus a sprinkling of annoying yet funny boo-boo's...

First, a major search engine I rely on to stay on top of opportunities in my biz, run by a company who's name starts with "O" has been in and out of the toilet since right before rollover.. currently has been down for over a week after the bandaids wore off..

Intel and JIT went to shit...

I try to post a job opening, and the MAJOR company comes back and dates my job opening as posted in 1969...

I'm feeling real good about how well we did.. NOT!!!!

-- Carl (clilly@goentre.com), January 28, 2000.


Sorry for the typo with option "3". I meant to say Feb 1, 2000 ;-)

I'm going on with my life, but watching, certainly. Look at what's happening with oil. Is it Y2K related? Who knows. But I do know it matches some Y2K predictions and came as no surprise to those who followed the thinking here. I haven't received my bank statements or credit card bill yet for month one, either.

I've already had two double billings of credit purchases, so yes, I think there's reason for concern over this.

I will not holler "all clear" until I see how the IRS is doing at getting the refunds out. If they have any hangups, I expect a very lively Year 2000 presidential campaign!!!

-- JIT (justintime@rightnow.net), January 27, 2000.

This will be the biggest litmus test of all, IMO. If you've heard anyone who's involved in tax return processing speak on this subject, you get a feel for what we are potentially up against. People get upset when their refunds are two weeks late, imagine 3 months or more! Oh well, if it happens, I guess we can console ourselves with the fact that it's "not Y2K related" :-)

I think I'll chose #3 Feb. 31,2000 . If that date IS ever seen then I will KNOW that Y2K is not a problem. Even Captain Kirk would have a problem leaping that many days.(warp 12 straight into the sun,etc...)

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 27, 2000.

I obviously blew this one ;-)

You put that in there just to test us,right?(grin)

Oops. chose=choose

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 27, 2000

Yeah, *I meant to do that*!

Those folk much wiser than me often give mid April as the 'magic' date for "all clear". Oil may well prove to be a whole other issue altogether--whether or not directly y2k related.

There seems to be more of an argument over whether it's Y2K related than what the effects are, whatever is responsible. I think the oil situation is unprecedented, no matter what the reason.

If the pumps run dry or just high priced it ain't really gonna matter why. I suspect, however, that due to the commonly used "sliding windows" approach to fixing the date problem--we will continue to get bitten in the ass periodically for much of this century...probably at times that will be most inconvenient. Doubt those times will require y2k type preps, but who knows?

Interesting theory... I would hate to think that we could be smacked from now on by this, but if they are metered out over time they could be manageable.

Still, how the heck did all those countries that did virtually nothing get by??? Just turning the date back would postpone things-- maybe indefinitely? Did the USA take things too seriously? (I don't think so--but a considerable part of the rest of the world feels that way).

-- Preps (AreBeingPutToGood@Use.com), January 27, 2000.

I wonder about this also. Are these countries really getting by? For now they may very well be. Here's where I think we need at least three months to evaluate.

It's over dude. TEOTWAWKI was the scenario I was afraid of (and prepped for..).

It's pretty obvious that the grid stayed up, and other than isolated glitches the worse thing we have to face is boredom.

I'll still keep 3 months of preps.. You never know about earthquakes/etc.. But Y2K is going the way of disco.

I'm kind of dissapointed, in truth. I was hoping for some adventure.

-- bryce (bryce@seanet.com), January 27, 2000.

Y2K in the TEOTWAWKI sense is over, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't be prepared for something less than that.

Hummm.. I'm in the computer field... two major hits have happened, plus a sprinkling of annoying yet funny boo-boo's...

First, a major search engine I rely on to stay on top of opportunities in my biz, run by a company who's name starts with "O" has been in and out of the toilet since right before rollover.. currently has been down for over a week after the bandaids wore off..

Intel and JIT went to shit...

I try to post a job opening, and the MAJOR company comes back and dates my job opening as posted in 1969...

I'm feeling real good about how well we did.. NOT!!!!

-- Carl (clilly@goentre.com), January 28, 2000.

Thanks for sharing your experience, Carl!



-- John Cauthen (johnr@cetlink.net), January 28, 2000.


never!

Don't give up - keep hoping and believing...something bad is bound to happen, and you can blame it on Y2K.

-- I am (LMAO2@pathetic.idiots), January 28, 2000.


The [Gartner Group] estimates only 10 percent of all Y2K failures will occur during the first two weeks of January, leaving approximately 60 percent of failures to cascade through 1Q 2001.

-- Researcher (marketnews99@yahoo.com), January 28, 2000.

I am waiting until 6 or 7.

What I would really like is to hear a little feedback from Hamasaki , Cap Gemini, Dale Way, etc.. post roll-over.

Please provide links if you know of any credible commentary. I am so sick of the doomer vs. polly thing so "Flamers", don't waste my time. Go do something productive!

Jamie

-- Jamie Davis (jdavis@recruitmint.com), January 28, 2000.



Ah, just keep on hoping, you may get your 6 or 7 or 8, maybe in Feb., or Mar., or April, maybe on the lst, l0th or middle of first quarter. In the meantime, just enjoy watching your food dates expire and lose its food value, instead haul it to the food bank. Maybe you'd better wait until after the next full moon though.

Some idiot named Franklin Frith, or something like that, warned us recently of a major earthquake in Mo. Drat!!! didn't happen.

Come on, forget it, it's over.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), January 28, 2000.


Ah, just keep on hoping, you may get your 6 or 7 or 8, maybe in Feb., or Mar., or April, maybe on the lst, l0th or middle of first quarter. In the meantime, just enjoy watching your food dates expire and lose its food value, instead haul it to the food bank. Maybe you'd better wait until after the next full moon though. Some idiot named Franklin Frith, or something like that, warned us recently of a major earthquake in Mo. Drat!!! didn't happen.

Come on, forget it, it's over.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), January 28, 2000.

Gilda,

Any "doomer" that bought food with expirations dates that they should already be worrying about is not a true "doomer" in the first place! After all, we've got Richard Noone's 5/5/2000 earth shift to worry about :-)

I guess I can put you down for a "1" (Y2K never was a problem) in my range table? ;-)

-- John Cauthen (johnr@cetlink.net), January 28, 2000.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ