This is the first time that I've been able to cut and paste to this forum! Hope it goes through. It's from http://www.oklahoman.com Am I supposed to say that this is for educational purposes only, or something like that?

Forecasts slip up in snow 01/27/2000 By Chip Minty Staff Writer

NORMAN -- Oklahomans are accustomed to weather forecasts that can track severe storms through neighborhoods with minute-to-minute accuracy.

So when a heavier than expected snowstorm struck Wednesday, many were wondering what went wrong.

Dennis McCarthy, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service forecast office in Norman, called it "preliminary snowfall that developed on the back side of a surface high."

In other words, forecasters and their computer models got bushwhacked by a weather system in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles that was packing more moisture than they were counting on.

The bottom line is forecasters are calling for far more snow than they expected earlier this week.

Meteorologists watching a low-pressure system move in from the west Tuesday predicted up to 8 inches of snow would fall in Oklahoma's central counties beginning Wednesday afternoon.

But with the preliminary system that dropped nearly 3 inches in the Oklahoma City area before noon, the forecast office revised its outlook to about 12 inches of snowfall by the end of today, McCarthy said.

"Since it started early, we're going to get more," McCarthy said.

What happened to forecasters in Norman on Wednesday morning has less to do with forecasting skill than the nature of predicting snow, McCarthy said. It's a different game than predicting severe weather and tornadoes, he said.

"What we still are challenged with is narrowing down the timing and narrowing down the location," McCarthy said.

The same problem happened on the East Coast on Tuesday when heavier than expected snow stretched from North Carolina to New Hampshire.

The storm tracked more to the north and west than predicted, and it came earlier than expected.

He said weather service forecasters were aware of conditions developing over Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. But models Tuesday night underestimated the speed that moisture would build into the atmosphere.

"In the lower levels of the atmosphere, we thought it would stay drier than it actually did," McCarthy said. "In this case the process just went a little faster than we expected."

Usually, when winter storm forecasts miss, it's a timing problem or a shift in location, McCarthy said. That's why it's important to pay close attention to winter weather forecasts as storms approach. Forecasts tend to increase in accuracy as the storms move closer, he said.

[sysop # 3 We FIX duplications.]

-- Margo (margos@bigisland.com), January 27, 2000

Answers

Stealth snow?

-- JB (noway@jose.com), January 27, 2000.

Heh, original moisture content was correct. The extra moisture was fallout from the C-130 chem-trails:)

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 27, 2000.

Well, there's also the downsizing of the NOAA offices. For example, in Waco we used to get our weather predictions/info from the office in Waco. Now we get it from Ft. Worth. And the storm stuff comes out of Oklahoma City. The predictions for Waco have never been as accurate since they closed the local office. I suspect it's that way all over the country.

(We got ice today, but the roads are dry.)

-- mommacarestx (nospam@thanks.com), January 27, 2000.

thanks, sysop #3!

-- Margo (margos@bigisland.com), January 27, 2000.

The other day they put out a warning -- a very _specific_ warning -- predicting 12" of lake effect snow in two adjacent counties.

We live in one of those two counties.

We got zero snow. So did the other county.

-- Sluggo (sluggo@your.head), January 28, 2000.

I'm in the Atlanta area, and even as we speak, none of the local forcasters, the NWS, or the Weather Channel can agree on what we can expect tomorrow as the storm nears us!

All the schools are closed tomorrow, and there hasn't even been a flake yet.

-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 28, 2000.

All the schools are closed tomorrow, and there hasn't even been a flake yet.

And tomorrow's Saturday?

-- (-@-.-), January 28, 2000.

A local weather guy (for Raleigh-Durham) said last night don't worry about it, it's 48 hours away anyway. (!!!) Weather Channel says 40% chance of snow tomorrow, sleet and snow on Sunday. Weather Underground says 40% chance of light snow tomorrow afternoon. Snow likely Sat night, then sleet or freezing rain; Sunday, freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet.

I shall do as I did for Y2K--prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Now let's see, we need a snow shovel and critter food. And probably some more malt beverage. That's all--plenty of everything else because it obviously is NOT just Y2K.

By the way, we have newspaper delivery today--and we're only ten minutes from the city center. No mail yet, but maybe later, and no trash pickup this week. (The Sanitation Department guys seem to be working the sand trucks.)

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), January 28, 2000.