Heck no! Just to show a FEW cracks in the transportation social planning monolith, ALAN E. PISARSKI a transportation statistics consultant with decades of experience in transportation statistics gave this lecture at a national transportation meeting a year ago. Late in his career, and having nothing to lose, he was willing to unload on the self-deceit involved in contemporary social engineering in transportation. The CAPITALIZATION I have added for emphasis. The original can be found with DOTBOT on the US DOT site. Here are some excerpts.

1999 TRB Distinguished Lecture TRB Annual Meeting Hilton Washington Hotel Washington, D.C. January 11, 1999

II. THE ROLES PLAYED BY DATA IN TRANSPORTATION (I was warned to stay out of the "dead-end" data part of the transportation planning and policy world early in my career and am happy that I didnUt take the advice.) Working with data everyday forces one to confront the failures to define our subject clearly and to place bounds on it and to get it stated correctly. That lack of precision has damaged the development of serious analysis and understanding over time. Some of the fundamental topics of concern over time: 7 The nature of transportation data - we get very involved these days with data, information, wisdom, etc. and try to describe this evolution as if it were a nice clean sequential process. I have never seen this actually work that way. Data banks (more deposits than withdrawals and still bankrupt) and now data mining and information systems are the buzz. We are more and more capable of rapidly transferring and effectively manipulating less and less accurate information. Most transportation policy and planning is just as much about other subjects as it is about transportation. What makes it viable policy and planning data is that it is transportation and demography data, transportation and economics data, transportation and resources data, etc. 7 THE DECLINE OF A VALID VOCABULARY. THE RISE OF MARKETING AS A COMPONENT ELEMENT IN TRANSPORTATION POLICY AND PLANNING (WHICH SEEMED TO BE A GOOD IDEA AT THE TIME) HAS BEEN A DISASTER FOR REALITY. THE NEED TO SELL PROGRAMS, LINKED STRONGLY WITH

7 CHANGING PEOPLEUS BEHAVIOR CREATED MARKETING, CREATED HYPERBOLE, CREATED LYING. THE DEFINITIONS EXPAND FOR THE PROGRAMS WE WISH TO SUPPORT, AND SHRINK FOR THE OTHERS - KIND OF LIKE NEIGHBORHOODS THAT PICK UP ON THE NAME OF NEARBY DESIRABLE LOCATIONS. TRANSIT, NO LONGER "MASS", IS NOW ANYTHING WHERE THE TRAVELER DOESNUT OPERATE THE VEHICLE, CARPOOLING REFERS TO ANY GROUP OF MORE THAN ONE IN A VEHICLE, A HUSBAND AND WIFE GOING TO WORK IS A CARPOOL, A MOTHER TAKING HER CHILD TO DAY CARE ON THE WAY TO WORK IS A CARPOOL; ANYONE TAKING A BRIEFCASE HOME AT NIGHT IS "WORKING AT HOME" OR "TELECOMMUTING". WE HAVE NOW CHANGED CONGESTION PRICING TO VALUE PRICING AND THINK WE CAN SELL IT BECAUSE IT SOMEHOW SOUNDS BETTER. THE WHOLE NOTION OF SEEING METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION POLICY AS A MARKETING EXERCISE IS BANKRUPT. THESE ARE NOT JUST THE RANT OF AN OLD-TIMER THE LOSS OF MEANING IN WORDS CORRUPTS STATISTICS.

TRANSPORTATION PLANNING, POLICY, AND DATA: INEXTRICABLE LINKAGES One wag once said that Washington was the city where every action has several equal and opposite reactions. This seems to be certainly true in building transportation facilities today especially roads. The notion that roads fill up after we build them and therefore all is for naught - Transportation Nirvana we used to call it back in the sixties when transportation and land use were being studied more thoughtfully. THUS ROADS ARE THE ONLY PUBLIC INVESTMENTS THAT ARE CONDEMNED FOR BEING SUCCESSFULLY USED. THE FACT THAT PEOPLE FIND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INTERACTIONS ENHANCED BY ROADS AND USE THEM IS WHAT WE SHOULD MEAN BY SUCCESS NOT FAILURE. Consider the problem of those who build roads in the vain hope of "build it and they will come" and "nobody comes." Are their empty roads successes, in the same way that empty transit systems are, perhaps? MOST TRIPS HAVE ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS AT THEIR ENDS, AND IF NOT THEY HAVE SOCIAL INTERACTIONS OF GREAT VALUE TO THOSE MAKING THE TRIPS. INDUCED TRAVEL SEEMS LIKE A VERY ATTRACTIVE CONCEPT TO ME. THINK OF ALL THE INDUCED TRAVEL WE WILL PRODUCE FROM GETTING AUTOS INTO THE HANDS OF MINORITY POPULATIONS! WE SHOULD CELEBRATE IT NOT CONDEMN IT.

1. Safety-related Investments - The deaths on our nationUs highways are unconscionable, particularly because investments can be made that can sharply reduce the toll. Of course, a large part of the causes of fatalities are linked to vehicle characteristics and driver behavior, but all contributory factors linked to the highway itself must be addressed including highway condition and design. Much of this needed investment will be on the National Highway System, and is related to non-geometric improvements. The aging of the population will be another factor that contributes to increased traffic risk. The number of persons in their fifties will increase by 50% in the next ten years, equal to half of all population increase. We need to re-think and perhaps retrofit our highways, particularly the high speed facilities, to respond to the changing visual acuity, reaction times, etc. of our aging population. IT IS FRIGHTENING TO THINK THAT IN THE PAST WE CONSCIOUSLY ACCUMULATED HIGHWAY TRUST FUND REVENUES TO ARTIFICIALLY BALANCE THE BUDGET ONLY TO FOREGO MAKING SAFETY INVESTMENTS THAT COULD SAVE LIVES. We must commit to a date certain in the future (2010?) when these problems will have been addressed, with timely monitoring of progress. The public wants a menu for action which ISTEA and TEA 21 lacked. 2. International Competitiveness - Expansion of interstate trade corridors between and into our metropolitan areas that serve our international trading needs can sustain and extend our international competitiveness. MAJOR CHOKE-POINTS AT OUR BORDERS AND IN AND AROUND METROPOLITAN AREAS NEED TO BE ADDRESSED. 3. Operations Improvements - Investment in and greater application of traffic engineering and ITS technologies to expedite traffic flows and increase capacity of our highway systems, reducing waiting times and delays, can pay big air quality and time savings dividends. We will need to invest in the research, the technologies, the data and the skilled operators to make these systems work. 4. JOB ACCESS - WE NEED TO INVEST IN BETTER WAYS TO GET INNER CITY RESIDENTS TO JOBS THAT ARE NOW MORE LIKELY TO BE AT HIGHLY DISPERSED LOCATIONS IN THE SUBURBS. RATHER THAN "BIG" TRANSIT PROJECTS WE SHOULD INVEST IN "SMALL" JITNEY-LIKE SYSTEMS OR VAN-POOLS, WHERE, FREQUENTLY, IT WILL BE INNER-CITY ENTREPRENEURS WHO BECOME "SMALL" BUS COMPANY OWNERS TO MEET THESE NEEDS. THIS WILL TAKE BOTH SOME INVESTMENT AND SOME REGULATORY TREATMENT. 5. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE AMONG THE FEW SUCCESSFUL TRANSIT STRATEGIES IN RESPONDING TO OVERALL METROPOLITAN AND SUBURBAN TRAVEL DEMANDS AS WELL. Other high payoff transit investments are likely to be related to rehabilitating and upgrading many of the aging transit systems of the Northeast. 6. METROPOLITAN CAPACITY - WE ACTUALLY ARE GOING TO HAVE TO BUILD ROADS IN THE SUBURBS AND THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR METROPOLITAN AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SEARCH FOR CAPACITY ACROSS AMERICA IN THE COMING YEARS - BOTH HIGHWAY AND AIR CAPACITY - FOR BOTH PASSENGERS AND FREIGHT. UNLESS WE PROVIDE SOME OF THAT CAPACITY IN OUR METROPOLITAN AREAS, BUSINESSES AND HIGH SKILLED EMPLOYEES WILL DISPERSE EVEN FARTHER AFIELD. SUCH INVESTMENT WILL HELP KEEP OUR METROPOLITAN AREAS COMPETITIVE AND MAKE THE LIFE-STYLES OF A MAJORITY OF OUR POPULATION MORE LIVABLE. 7. Whether this is part of the solution or the problem is not clear but at some stage, and sooner than later, we will be faced with the need to separate cars and trucks - as cars get smaller and trucks get bigger. 8. The simple commandment is "Make things better" - Improve transit yes, improve pedestrian and biking facilities - yes; IMPROVE HIGHWAYS - YES. TRYING TO CONGEST PEOPLE INTO PREFERRED MODES - THE THEORY THAT SAYS THAT IF WE JUST CAN MAKE PEOPLE MISERABLE ENOUGH WE CAN SOLVE THE PROBLEM IS A PATHETIC PUBLIC POLICY. 9. MAKE THE AUTO A GOOD NEIGHBOR. WE HAVE MADE BELIEVE THE AUTO WAS GOING TO GO AWAY. OUR HOMES, JOB SITES, SHOPPING CENTERS HAVE NOT RECOGNIZED HOW TO MAKE THE PEDESTRIAN AND AUTO INTERACT SAFELY, COMFORTABLY AND ATTRACTIVELY. IT CAN BE DONE. THOSE WHO WORK IT OUR WILL BE RICHLY REWARDED. THE FUTURE BELONGS TO THE PERSONAL VEHICLE AND WALKING. They used to say that Californians were people who drove to where they wanted to walk. Better said today, Americans are a people who fly to Europe to go walking. (And who drink water imported from France or Switzerland or wherever) 10. THE GOAL FOR TRANSPORTATION OUGHT TO BE TO REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF DISTANCE AS AN INHIBITING FORCE IN OUR SOCIETYUS ABILITY TO REALIZE ITS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ASPIRATIONS - TO "DESTROY" DISTANCE AS A FACTOR IN MEETING SOCIETYUS NEEDS. 1 Read Edward WeinerUs historical overview on Urban Transportation Planning in the United States, fifth edition, US DOT, 1997. 2 Read CATS I, II and III from 1959. 3 National Transportation: Trends and Choices, USDOT, 1978. 4 Moving America and its companion volume National Transportation Strategic Planning Study, USDOT, 1990. 5 National Transportation Policies, NPTSC, 1979. 6 Transport Tomorrow; A National Priority, 1982. 7 House Report 1596,DOT Appropriations Bill 1969 as in Transportation Information, US DOT, May 1969. 8 Transportation Information, US DOT, May 1969. 9 See Statistics for Transportation, Communication, and Finance and Insurance: Data Availability and Needs, National Academy Press, 1984. 10 "Deregulation has changed both the structure of those industries and the statistical reporting systems that support our understanding of them." Information Needs to Support State and Local Transportation Decision Making into the 21st Century, TRB Conference Proceedings 14, March 1997. 11 A Review of CTIPS capabilities and State Data Needs, AASHTO,Oct. 14, 1997. 12 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. 13 NadiriUs work for the FHWA for instance, or the work of the BTS and BEA in National Account

-- Craig Carson (craigcar@crosswinds.net), January 25, 2000

Answers

I agree. A rare voice of reason from the DOT crowd. You still need to do something about the wierd formating though Craig.

-- Mark Stilson (mark842@hotmail.com), January 25, 2000.

Hey, the guy endorses vanpooling, he can't be all bad.

-- Matthew M. Warren (mattinsky@msn.com), January 25, 2000.

I think Craig's formatting problem is a "Mac" thing myself.

-- Marsha (acorn_nut@hotmail.com), January 25, 2000.

I think it's a PDF file translation thing. Occurs on the IBM compatible, too! (OK, it's my teen-age son's computer. Just wanted to try it. It also truncates messages) I do like my Mac though. Installed my 128meg memory addition last night. It balzes with 256Meg.

-- (craigcar@crossinds.net), January 25, 2000.

I think it's a PDF file translation thing. Occurs on the IBM compatible, too! (OK, it's my teen-age son's computer. Just wanted to try it. It also truncates messages) I do like my Mac though. Installed my 128meg memory addition last night. It blazes with 256Meg.

-- (craigcar@crossinds.net), January 25, 2000.

"THE GOAL FOR TRANSPORTATION OUGHT TO BE TO REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF DISTANCE AS AN INHIBITING FORCE IN OUR SOCIETY'S ABILITY TO REALIZE ITS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ASPIRATIONS - TO "DESTROY" DISTANCE AS A FACTOR IN MEETING SOCIETY'S NEEDS. "

Why couldn't this be the goal of our state department of transportation, rather than their current goal of discouraging any public travel that they can, unless done in a vehicle that was going that way with excess capacity anyway.

-- Mark Stilson (mark842@hotmail.com), January 31, 2000.