What do you feel are the prospects for nuclear war within the near future?

-- Stephanie (toomany@megatons.com), January 24, 2000

Answers

I think it would take an extraordinary confluence of events to bring about WW III in this period of history. However, there are many geopolitical situations that could lead to hotspots. My question is, "how long until a terrorist uses a small portable nuclear weapon?" What would be it target? If bin Laden possesses a number of suitcase nukes, what is he waiting for?

(I pray that the apparent peace that we enjoy is not soon to decay...)

-- Ceemeister (ceemeister@hotmail.com), January 24, 2000.

The US has troops in one out of every three countries on the planet. I'd say we've been at WWIII for quite some time.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 24, 2000.

Not much moe than 1 in two...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), January 24, 2000.

We have not know of a world war since the atomic bomb ended the last one. Pray against WW111. We cannot stockpile against it.

PEASE....

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), January 24, 2000.

Stephanie,

Pretty low; too expensive(I'm defining near future as in the next 5-10 years).

Biochemical exchange? Sure! Far cheaper; I'm surprised (and relieved)this hasn't already happened on a large scale.

Suitcase nuke, as proposed above? Count on that. Far more likely that nukes will be used as a terrorist weapons in a series of isolated incidents than an all out global exchange.

Remember, global thermonuclear war is very bad for business, and organized crime(Russian, Mafia, American Family, etc.) won't like that.

Keep the infrastructure viable, and the sheeple fearful and in their place; I think that will probably be the order of the day for quite a while yet.

Peace,

Don

-- Shimoda (enlighten@me.com), January 24, 2000.

Here is the email directory for writing to your Congress people when you either like, or don't like something.

I can not comment on the post.

Congressional Email Directory http://www.webslingerz.com/jhoffman/congress-email.html

-- Dee (T1Colt556@aol.com), January 24, 2000.

Terrorist use of a (small, tactical) nuclear weapon: 25%-less in the continental U.S.

Regional exchange within 5 years (as in India vs, Pakistan or Israel vs. Syria, Libya, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, et. al): 33.3% and rising... (increase substantially if Israel gives up the Golan Heights and other territory)

Global war between U.S. and Russia (or Russia/China and U.S.) -or sneak attack/nuclear blackmail after attack: 15% and rising 30+% within 5 years.

-- chairborne commando (what-me-worry@armageddon.com), January 24, 2000.

Steph,

Global nukefest? Not likely, who would think they could win? Some nutty dictator with a couple of bombs to lob against their traditional enemy? Maybe. War for oil if things go sour? Yep.

Frank

-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.com), January 24, 2000.

Mathematically, it's a fifty / fifty chance: either it will happen or it won't, and that's fifty / fifty!

Kook

-- Y2Kook (Y2Kook@usa.net), January 24, 2000.

I agree with Hokie.

I have yet to see that the US has recalled any troops.

And wonder if some of current refinery/pipeline/wellhead oil problems could be result of limited scale offensive information warfare.

Perhaps it isn't the Y2K bug but professional hackers using supercomputers to simulate Y2K systemic failures as a prelude to a more aggressive and expanded attack. Recall that the hacking during the Kosovo incident involved Chinese and eastern Europeans.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 24, 2000.

Do you all have your potassium iodide pills?(thyroblock) I got mine at www.beprepared.com for 5.50 a bottle.....stays in your body for a month, the time it takes for the fallout to wash out of the environment. Jim Lord recommends more, but get at least one bottle for each family member. By the time FEMA gets them handed out you'll be glowing. Even in peacetime a nuke can blow, and drift a long way.

-- lyn (lynhettler@hotmail.com), January 24, 2000.

Stephanie, Here is an article who has his finger on the pulse of communism. Read it and come to your own conclusions:

Article

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), January 24, 2000.

Kook,

You said,

"and that's fifty / fifty! "

LOL! Thanks for the laugh

Frank

-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.com), January 24, 2000.

Bill wrote:

"And wonder if some of current refinery/pipeline/wellhead oil problems could be result of limited scale offensive information warfare. "

Duh! I'm so stupid! Thanks Bill; totally great thought!

My dad(retired military) always used to harp on fuel as the most important weapon during a war. It is most certainly possible that some of the recent oil madness might just be to "test the waters" as it were, to see just how vunerable we in the USA would be to a war with oil(or the lack of it) as a weapon.

Sharp thinker; Bill, thanks for jogging my memory on this one, and making me remember my father as well(R.I.P).

Peace, Y'all.

Don

-- Shimoda (enlighten@me.com), January 24, 2000.

"near" is relative, Steph. WWIII will happen whenever the U.S. decides she wants it to happen.

-- 2 (not@if.when), January 25, 2000.

IMHO the chances of WWIII is very low. Have a look at taylorm@es.co.nz), January 25, 2000.

50/50

Human response.

-- Hatti (klavine@tco.com), January 25, 2000.

Try agian and see if I've got the link right this time.

IMHO the chances of WWIII is very low. Have a look at Stratfor's forecasts showing that even the middle east is likely to an unprecendented era of peace.

The New Zealand government is so certain that there is no risk of World conflict that they are considering cancelling our order for 28 F16s from USA. However there are quite a few people here in NZ who believe the F16 deal being offered to us is too good to turn down, so maybe a small conflict that directly threatens NZ would be beneficial. An attack from FiJi perhaps?

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), January 25, 2000.

Malcolm Taylor, Still 50/50

LIVE NOW!!!

Human response?!?!?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????

This is fun !

YES!!!!!

respectfully yours, Hatti

-- Hatti (klavine@tco.com), January 25, 2000.

I am going to Wal-mart to throw condoms in shopping carts.

FOR FUN!!!

I will write in and let everyone know what happens....

Good Idea!!

-- Hatti (klavine@tco.com), January 25, 2000.