Dow under 11,000?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Looks like we are seriously testing the support level of 11,000 for the Dow in this last hour of trading.Hold onto your hats, if we break below it, 10,500 may not be far behind (by the end of the week).
At 15:21 est, we are at 11,005.
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000
Looks like we got a bump at 11,001. Expect to see another dip to test the 11,000 level again in the next 5-10 minutes. I think we'll drop below, but might see some "bungee" effedt to spring us back up by close.
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
Make sure you have your "shorts on.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 24, 2000.
Whoa!Crashed through 11,000 this time to 10969. Will we bungee? That's a much bigger drop than a bungee might be able to stop.
We could hit our heads on the ground and go unconscious!
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
10,943 -- curbs in."No economic events out there today" -- Insana.
Uh huh.
-- Sluggo (sluggo@your.head), January 24, 2000.
wow... Dow down over 319 to 10932NASDAQ down 122
S&P down over 42
Mike
=====================================================================
-- Mike Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
10,931...
-- Sluggo (sluggo@your.head), January 24, 2000.
Hey! Who tied that knot in the bungee?
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 24, 2000.
Freefall!!!!10,948!!!! 15:31 est
Where is the next support level???
10,900? 10,500?
What will program trading do right now?
sell....sell....selll, or find a floor?
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
"It is, however, an orderly decline."(Guy whistling past the graveyard from the floor of the NYSE on CNBC.)
-- Sluggo (sluggo@your.head), January 24, 2000.
S&P under 1400!!!!!
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 24, 2000.
10,918
-- Sluggo (sluggo@your.head), January 24, 2000.
Curbs in? Program trading suspended???????BTW, NASDAQ 100 down 4.4%
NASDAQ Composite down 2.9%
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
BUYING opportunity! Greedy folks, jump in!Chance of your lifetime. Get skinned.
-- W (me@home.now), January 24, 2000.
Are the techies trying for 3k?
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 24, 2000.
bungee kick in at 10,925?????Seems we found support at about 10,925....
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
So did the curbs save us????? Was it a long bungee cord? Will we end up back over 11,000 for the day?
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
Is a bungee a good analogy? Doesn't the jumper finally end up at the bottom?
-- Kyle (fordtbonly@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
Didn't we do this on January 3rd, the LAST time the Dow went below 11,000? I guess it's back to DJIA = end of civilization, if the price of oil keeps being stubborn and going down, like it was today...
-- Same Old Story (here@we.go.again), January 24, 2000.
Graphics are fascinating. Here are the Bloomberg charts for intraday numbers on the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P500: macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 24, 2000.
Sorry 'bout that: Intraday on the IndicesThe Nasdaq stayed above water until 2PM, then it lined up with the other two and they all declined by pretty much the same percentages from 3PM on. The Dow then rallied at the end to peg right at the 11000 support level.
Wheeeee!!!
-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 24, 2000.
The most facinating thing about today is that the "black Ops"didnt't jump in with their massive derivative money , and "save the day" as they have in the past. The whisper is that they are going to let it go.Maybe today was a tell!
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 24, 2000.
SOS, did I say anything about Y2K? Did I equate this to the end of the world???Get a life loser!
This is pertinent to this board not because of the cause being Y2K, but because many on this board have gotten out of the market.
Personally, I have never been a market timer, but I believed that Y2K posed enough risk to pull out of the market into money market (and the like), especially in retirement plans.
To date, it was a very wise decision. Since the time I did it, the mutual funds offered through my plans have underperformed the money market. This, for the most part, is because the market has been EXTREMELY narrow.
At this point, I've got well over $100,000 waiting for the right time to buy back in. I think I will have a trremendous buying opportunity between now and about March 31. Sure, I could dollar cost average back in. But I personally believe this bubble will burst BIG TIME, and I'll be able to buy in at 70 cents on the dollar or better!
I'm sure many others who have prepared in a prudent manner for what worst case y2k failures could have brought are wondering the same thing.
Just like:
When should I drain my bathtubs? When should I break into the canned foods? When can I start drawing down on the bottled water supply?
Etc.
Each individual needs to make their own decisions on this.
The crap you bring into the board is meaningless, trite, incendiary, immature, and just plain stupid! Get a life!
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
Well, looks like that bengee cord was mighty long today, but it did spring us back to the 11,000 level! Just as I predicted at 3:30 or so.; )
No, I don't believe I can prognosticate these things. It just always seems to work this way.
I would expect tomorrow to begin up again, but then quickly test this 11,000 support level again.
I don't think it will hold. The program traders will look for a new true support level like 10,800, or 10,750. Look for a down day tomorrow. Somewhere around 10,850 - 10,900.
Things might have tanked bad today until the curbs went in.
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
Wait, wait, wait, don't buy back in yet. Plenty of time as it is BOUND to go lower due to inflation aka oil.
-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
This could go either way. There's no reason why the market couldn't go to "Infomagic" territory or bounce back up, 15,000, 20,000, whatever.It's mob psychology now. Valuations have nothing to do with the earning potential of the company.
Like duke and others, I'm essentially out of the market. I also have about a hundred grand parked in money markets, T-Bills, 3 month CD's etc. Even if we hit 5,000 on the Dow in March, I would be very careful about buying back in.
I'm not predicting 5,000, just giving an example. We'll hear a lot of flack-yap about "a great buying opportunity". Be careful. Read Gailbraith's book on the Great Depression.
Good luck everyone.
-- sold (out@stock.now), January 24, 2000.
Seems like the market finally found out about the oil situation discussed here last week...and did about what we expected.
-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), January 24, 2000.
Wait, wait, wait, don't buy back in yet. Plenty of time as it is BOUND to go lower due to inflation aka oil.Couldn't agree more Mara. My comment that I'm looking to but in at 70 cents on the dollar could be interpreted to mean a DOW of 8,200.
That would be the high times .70
Whatever the number, I'm willing to wait it out. I know there will be a great opportunity!
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
Hey Duke! You keep talkin',and I'll send back my $10k in indicator software.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 24, 2000.
Sold,You may be right, but a DOW of 5,000, and I'm back in.
I will have been protected from a >50% loss.
I would want to see a brief up turn before getting beck in to be sure it's not going to keep going, but I will feel great if I avoid that huge drop!
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
"Hey Duke! You keep talkin',and I'll send back my $10k in indicator software. "James, care to elaborate on that comment, I'm not quite sure what that means...
Did you actually pay $10K for software to help you process all the information from leading indicators?
If you did, how long have you had it, and has it helped? I wouldn't think it would provide any help to short term investors. Indicators really help identify long term trends, I thought.
And these days, the only long term trend seems to be Up, Up, Up!
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
Duke ,that was just an elbow in jest.Index futures and options Analysis down to 5 minute bars. Hedging is my occupation.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 24, 2000.
January market is said to be a broad indicator for the entire year. YTD the Dow's down about 5%, S&P about the same, and Nasdaq's right about break-even. Rest of the week will tell the tale...Dow 10,500 / S&P 1300 / Nasdaq 2800 would put 'em back to Oct'99 levels, which is about the time that it became clear Mr. Greenspan was going to leave all that lovely liquidity just sloshing about in the system. Now the Fed is mopping it all up and seemingly very focussed on squeezing most of the go-juice out of these markets. Those levels would be decent corrections, but nothing earth-shattering.
Unless, of course, you're a stock speculator who's marginned up to your windpipe...
-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 24, 2000.
Is anybody following after-hours trading? If you can link us to it, that would be really helpful. Thanks.
-- Susie (Susie0884@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
I'm with you, Duke. We should watch this situation. I sold over 1998, 1999, 9500, 9200, 10,800, small amounts (10K, 20K, 30K at a time).All I'm saying is, I won't get greedy and try to time the bottom. I also won't move all my savings back at one time.
When I buy, I'll do it is small chunks over time. I'll probably always have 25% or so in CD's and Money Markets.
-- sold (out@stock.now), January 24, 2000.
Susie, you can follow S&P and NASDAQ futures here:So far, not much movement. Oh, and the last two digits are AFTER an assumed decimal point, so don't get worried.
Anybody have a better link?
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
From today's The Street.com - Market Roundup:..."There's no major portion of the market portfolio managers can put their money in and feel comfortable about," said Ed Nicoski, chief market strategist at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray in Minneapolis. "There just isn't any leadership except tech, and that can only go so far without breaking or causing the rest of the market to take a break."
Nicoski cautioned against overanalyzing today's decline but said the market has a "huge problem" and "a lot of vulnerability built in." Given the "parabolic" moves enjoyed by tech and biotech of late, "at some point they're going to get hurt real bad and harder than the rest of the market," he said. "I don't know if today's the day" that begins the process.
The conundrum, Nicoski explained, is that technology still represents "long-term leadership" and a sector investors should continue to overweight. But investors should also have some cash on hand for what is shaping up to be an extremely volatile year, he said...
-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 24, 2000.
Try that link again. I forgot a quotation mark at the beginning:CME Globex2 Flashquotes
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 24, 2000.
Got rid of the 2 Puts today. Bought 2 Feb 1450 Calls (S&P)Dirt cheap...
-- Joseph Almond (sa2000@webtv.net), January 24, 2000.
And Emerson and RCA were all that survived from "Radio's 147",the technology darlings of 1928.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 24, 2000.
Duke, thanks for the after-hours link.
-- Susie (Susie0884@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
Looks like we're about to test that 11,000 level again12:00 noon est
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
10,990 at 12:02S&P still testing the 1,400 barrier
NASDAQ still testing 4,100.
Personally, I don't think these levels will hold through the day...
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
Found a little bounce again. I still think the last hour of trading is going to be very interesting today. Keeping my eyes open.10,986 @ 12:19.
Here's a link for all markets though CNNfn:
And here's the dow Industrial charts from the same site:
BTW, looking now like a narrow trading range for awhile 10,975 - 11,000
Watch that last hour of trading!
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
10978 at 12:22.
-- Susie (Susie0884@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
Watch 10917.89 on the DOW
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
watch 1395.42 on the S&P
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Interesting note about CNNfn's site (http://www.cnnfn.com): Headlines sez, Wall Street edges higher, but numbers indicate otherwise...12:50 EST
DOW (- 51.50)
DAQ (- 22.01)Usually the headlines change (basically, time of day scripting to swap material in and out), but this one's been up for most of the day.
-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), January 25, 2000.
"Slip Slidin Away"
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
GO HERE http://www.quote.com/quotecom/livecharts/default.asp?symbols=And you can watch it happen before yo very eyes!
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
How do you put a hot link in this frickin' thing , Copy/Paste is a pain in the Gluteus.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Man! that was one of the best head fakes I've seen in a long time!
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Hang on Boys and Girls!
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
The number is 4042.42 on the NDX
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Second day in a row and no "back door" derivative money to plug the leak,wouldn't you know it, right when we were set up to trade it.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
fait accompliThe "Gnomes" the are going to let it founder.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Here's a link, James:I haven't figured out how to get the index showing.
Anyway...here we go is right!
10,898 @13:59 est
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
Duke; Type in indu,spx,ndx in the symbol space,also its Java= SLOOOOOw
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
1900 zulu is when the money started coming under the door ,they options on future this time.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
They are using options on index futures this time.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
What do you think? Will I have been on target?I wrote this yesterday (on up the thread). So far, it looks on- target:
"I would expect tomorrow to begin up again, but then quickly test this 11,000 support level again.
I don't think it will hold. The program traders will look for a new true support level like 10,800, or 10,750. Look for a down day tomorrow. Somewhere around 10,850 - 10,900."
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
James, can you explian a little about this money coming in under the door, please?
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
HEY! I'm the one who said "send back the software",you've got a handle on it dude.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Here's Bloomberg's Intraday on the IndicesThe Comp lead everything higher last year - now it's leading lower. Note how the Comp has bounced off two levels today: down 1.3% around 10AM ET, a rally, down 0.6 around 11AM, rally, then all the way down 1.6% around 2PM, and a nice little rally again back to "only" 0.8 down. Stay tuned...
The lovely and talented Maria Bartiromo opined on CNBC this AM (with furrowed brow and glances about the trading floor) that "the market just feels like it wants to go down today." Reminded me a bit of De Niro's speech about fire (aka "the animal") in Backdraft. "It breathes... it eats..."
I'm thinking maybe Ms. B needs a vacation...
-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 25, 2000.
Unfortunately ,the powers that be manipulate the markets for their own political reasons. They have massive amounts of capital and their brokers use the derivative market to cause the critical mass to shift. The whisper is that they are ready to let this one go,we in the industry ,who are not in denial, know their fingerprints ,and watch them more than the market per se.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
James. does that mean that they're not necessarily going to let things go?Or is there an ongoing, engineered "soft landing".
This could be the sixth down day in a row.
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
A little bit of a rally going, but it has hit a ceiling 10,988.Looks like 11,000 has become our ceiling, not our floor.
Should be an interesting last hour. Is that the time, James, for the money to stop coming in under the door? Step back and see what happens?
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
Duke, Everyone here is praying it lands on a pillow.There is no way to predict the political motives of this bunch ,another scandal could be right around the corner. We play it one day at a time.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Duke, The flow stopped at 1940 zulu.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
The "soft landing" (i.e., letting the air out of bubble.com without a complete collapse) is certainly the Fed's stated objective. Whether they can engineer it is another matter. That landing would still result in some high-flying techs losing 50% of market cap, so "soft" is purely a relative term.
-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 25, 2000.
Holding steady...Looks like it doesn't know which way to go3:05 est
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
Duke, The whisper is ,that by letting it go the disruption to the consumer mentality will be so great, that it will ensure political victory for the pols who have the legacy for doing the most for the "people".
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
2:33pm CST...looks like the plunge doctors have everything fixed.
-- Kyle (fordtbonly@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
Consumer Confidence today was at a record level, somwhere around 145. When this indicator decides to take a nose dive, I believe the market will crumble. It could be happening now or it may take higher interest rates, oil prices etc.The last hour of trading in the oil complex, crude, heating and gas shows much higher prices.
Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 25, 2000.
James -1940 zulu (or UTC) = 1440 EST = 2:40PM EST, yes? If so, that's almost exactly when the markets (esp. the Nasdaq Comp) started recovering. All now very much in the plus category. I suspect that the Comp is easier to move than the Dow or S&P, and my oh my, is it volatile!
-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 25, 2000.
Still 600 more losers on the NYSE and 300 more on the Nasdaq. Dow Utilities down almost 2% and the Dow Transports down about 1 1/2%. Not really what one would call a rousing rally!!Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 25, 2000.
AW, poor Ray. Nuttin better to do than hope the rich people lose all their money. They have, you want. End of story.Looks like you'll have to wait another day for the end of the world. Must be fun living that way. NOT!!!
-- (Rich@investor.com), January 25, 2000.
sent @ 2105-800 zulu Dee-Right on the time conversion. They move it around, actually the volume/open interest action was in nearby S&P index futures options today,at that point everyone was looking for tell,due to the build up of sell orders.So today they picked the S&P.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Where is the best spot to see market breadth numbers?
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
Rich@investor...Did you read this post above? We could apply it to you too.SOS, did I say anything about Y2K? Did I equate this to the end of the world??? Get a life loser!
This is pertinent to this board not because of the cause being Y2K, but because many on this board have gotten out of the market.
Personally, I have never been a market timer, but I believed that Y2K posed enough risk to pull out of the market into money market (and the like), especially in retirement plans.
To date, it was a very wise decision. Since the time I did it, the mutual funds offered through my plans have underperformed the money market. This, for the most part, is because the market has been EXTREMELY narrow.
At this point, I've got well over $100,000 waiting for the right time to buy back in. I think I will have a trremendous buying opportunity between now and about March 31. Sure, I could dollar cost average back in. But I personally believe this bubble will burst BIG TIME, and I'll be able to buy in at 70 cents on the dollar or better!
I'm sure many others who have prepared in a prudent manner for what worst case y2k failures could have brought are wondering the same thing.
Just like:
When should I drain my bathtubs? When should I break into the canned foods? When can I start drawing down on the bottled water supply?
Etc.
Each individual needs to make their own decisions on this.
The crap you bring into the board is meaningless, trite, incendiary, immature, and just plain stupid! Get a life!
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
Dang Duke, we're back to the $10k software issue again!
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Duke:Seriously ,real time feeds of that information is extremely expensive not some thing the individual could generate the cash flow to maintain,many end of day data services provide the downloads that contain it ,so it can be charted,of course it is "after the fact".
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Actually, James, I've lost my bookmark that showed be ending numbers, not realtime, that provide market breadth info.It's not so easily found on most sites.
Do you have a link for the end of day info?
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
Duke, here is one link for market breadth, I believe it is real time:Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 25, 2000.
Duke, here is another link with market stats that is real time with the exception of the Dow Industrials:Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 25, 2000.
Hey! Somebody assist Duke.I don't have a clue ,would have to do a search myself.
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
Great Links, Ray, just what I was looking for!Thanks a bunch.
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 25, 2000.
The clever folks at The Street.com provided an interesting analysis on today's "thin air rally"....Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index rallied in the last hour to finish in the green.
The reason was simple. The reason was Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news), which announced that it will spend $2 billion to build a plant in Arizona to manufacture wafer-thin silicon chips that are 12 inches in diameter, roughly the size of a dinner plate. The company, part of both the Dow and Comp, leapt from 97 7/16 to its close of 101 9/16 in the last two hours of trading. That's a 4% move over 120 minutes. It ended the day up 2 13/16, adding 14 to the Dow gain.
American Express (AXP:NYSE - news) and Disney (DIS:NYSE - news) both added heavily to the Dow. The former added 35, while the latter added 25.
And Intel's comeback boosted the Comp, bringing dollars back into the techs, which had withered for the majority of the day session. The Comp finished up 71 to 4167. The Dow rose 22 to 11,030...
Breadth was terrible. Amex, Disney, and Intel (that famous chip maker cum hedge fund) saved a lot of folks' bacon...
-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 25, 2000.
Well Gollly! And the spin was ready for consumption!
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 25, 2000.
So what will today bring?
-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), January 26, 2000.
It's going to bring me big trouble if I don't stop watchin' and talkin'and get back to work!
-- James (brkthru@cableone.net), January 26, 2000.
Ditto.......but this is soo much fun and we are slow today.====
-- consumer (shh@aol.com), January 26, 2000.
Well, looks like "Big Mo" has definitely left QCOM for another team. We started this year with PaineWebber analyst Walter Piecyk's initiating cheerleading, errrr, coverage of QCOM with a price target of 1,000 (250 after the split), and now (only 25 days later) we have downgrades of "The Mighty Q" by Salomon Smith Barney and Merrill Lynch. Anyone who jumped in three weeks ago has lost serious coin (as much as 30%), and the full year's guidance looks less than rosy. "How the mighty have fallen..."FYI, current support levels seem to be DJIA: 10,800, S&P500: 1350, and Nasdaq COMP: 3700. Testing, testing...
-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 26, 2000.