Oil Explosions and fires statistics from 1990 - Looks like they started testing in 1998 - From Kitco

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

"Date: Sun Jan 23 2000 12:49 sharefin (Ain't the web an amazing thing??) ID#284255: - Got get em Stone-Gold.... Send him a party bomb... Spam the bugger.

---- More on the oil situation. Lots of chatter amongst the Y2k crowd. Apparently there's currently a natural gas shortage as well. Yet the US has had such a mild winter so far.

--- Many of us have been very concerned and trying to research this issue... Finally someone compiled a list.... http://www.justpeace.org/explosions.htm

FACTORY, GENERATING PLANT, PIPELINE EXPLOSIONS AND FIRES

Summary - 1990 - 3 reports 1991 - 1 report 1992 - 1 report 1993 - 1 report 1994 - 1 report 1995 - 2 reports 1996 - 6 reports 1997 - 5 reports 1998 - 29 reports 1999 - 90 reports 2000 - As of TODAY there have been 64 reports since 1/1/2000!!!!!! See below for listing of EVERY report....

Pre 1998 ... 1998 ... 1999"

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), January 24, 2000

Answers

Related link:

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002OPD

-- I'm Here, I'm There (I'm Everywhere@so.beware), January 24, 2000.


I graphed JustPeace.Org's data over time. The exponential rise in explosions -- many but not all petroleum related -- is very apparent starting in July 1998. See it for yourself at

Petroleum Industry Problems

Scroll down below the table to see the particular graph I'm referring to. (The graph at the top of my page is a yearly summary, not at revealing as the 2nd graph. Also bear in mind, JustPeace.Org's explosions data stopped in August 1999. You can extrapolate what the rest of 1999 must have looked like!!!)

-- Marcia Peters (marcia@nckodokan.com), January 24, 2000.


Marcia - I do not recall hearing about much of any explosions past August 1999. My theory - I think they got nervous and stopped the kind of y2k testing that may have led up to that. However, now that we have crossed the rollover, facilities are vulnerable to problems again.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), January 24, 2000.

Come on guys...Cherri says its just cause all the plants and pipelines was built in the 50's and now all the bolts and gizmos are rustin at the same time. Geesh! This aint y2k related! That was a hoax, remember?

The real danger wasn't computer code, it was iron oxide.

-- Rusty (@ .), January 24, 2000.


Where can you find a copy of the 'One Hoss Shay' when you need it!

Kook

-- Y2Kook (Y2Kook@usa.net), January 24, 2000.



Looks like an essentially worthless list..

With only major incidents from the Early 90s listed, and a vast laundry list of minor stuff from 2000..

I doubt the list was compiled with any systematic controls, etc.

For one thing, the 1999/2000 list contains a ton of stuff having nothing to do with refineries or oil production.

I very seriously doubt his 1990-1998 stuff is from as many sources or is as systematic.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 24, 2000.


Marcia --

Three cheers and can't thank you enough for compiling the stats onrefinery fires etc. for the benefit of all. Speaks volumes. If you're looking around for further projects, there's always the possibility of nuclear shutdowns, crams and hot standbys; sewage spills, and so froth

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), January 24, 2000.


Most importantly, what little information is provided on the search methodology is

"So I have started doing web searches of newspaper archives, others have contributed information in the thread found on government and industry publication sites, and I have received some private email"

Gee, web searches? Exactly how many newspapers had web archives in 1990? 1996 even? How much has the amount of data on the web gone up even in the past three years?

The ONLY way to do this is with LEXIS/NEXIS (which is much older and much more extensive than the web), select out 20 publications to examine that were on LEX/NEX from the early 90s to the present, and systematically look for all refinery fires/explosions.

I don't have access to it but I invite anyone with Lex/Nex and massive amounts of time to kill to do such a study.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 24, 2000.


I keep thinking of another good point right after I post:

The author of this list hasn't discovered a big increase in refinery accidents in 1998, the author of this list has made the amazing discovery that the amount of news information on the web exploded around 1998.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 24, 2000.


John K,

Why don't you take a bold step and do some research on your own. Then, ponder the results, take a deep breath, collect your thoughts, revise your conclusions as necessary, and make a rational presentation to this forum.

It is so easy to sit back and pick apart what others have done.

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), January 24, 2000.



This summary is the best effort I have seen so far. It is amazing that some continue to criticize an effort such as this when there is no other list that is better. We have to use the data that is available although it may not be perfect.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), January 24, 2000.

"John K, Why don't you take a bold step and do some research on your own. Then, ponder the results, take a deep breath, collect your thoughts, revise your conclusions as necessary, and make a rational presentation to this forum."

Ask, and ye shall receive, as I have done here repeatedly before.

This list at http://www.justpeace.org/explosions.htm has only 5 incidents for 1997:

1/22/97 California Martinez Tosco 5/13/97 Texas Corpus Christi 5/16/97 Minnesota St. Paul Park Ashland 6/22/97 Texas Houston Shell 11/8/97 Minnesota Rosemount Koch

Did a ONE quick Alta Vista search on the web that took me about 20 minutes.

Golly gee wiz, look at all the stuff that was MISSED by the obviously amateurish "web search" only producing the 5 incidents above:

(All in 1997)

1 & 2) http://www.newswest.com/svherald/daily/97/feb/10/explosion.html

Cause of pipeline explosions sought Probers consider unstable ground as possible cause By SALLY CARPENTER HALE Associated Press Writer KALAMA -- Investigators were looking at unstable ground as a possible reason for a second natural gas explosion in as many days in Washington.

3) http://www.disasterrelief.org/Disasters/970917indiafire/ Death Toll Climbs in India Refinery Fire Posted on Wed, 17 Sep 1997 15:49:46 GMT Three more bodies have been recovered from the site of Sunday's devastating fire at an oil refinery in southern India, bringing the death toll to 39.

4) http://www.wkbn.com/firstnews/history/1997-09-03/am1/#REFINERY

Story Posted: Wednesday September 3 1997 5:32 AM REFINERY A lightning strike is blamed for a fire at an oil refinery near Houston, Texas. Towering black smoke could be seen for miles even after crews put out the flames. Investigators say the blaze started late yesterday in a unit that separates oil from wastewater at the Exxon refinery in Baytown. No one was hurt.

5) http://www.wkbn.com/firstnews/history/1997-08-05/am1/#FLAREUP

Story Posted: Tuesday August 5 1997 6:08 AM FLAREUP A dangerous situation for firefighters in Texas battling a blaze after a pipeline explosion. Crews hosed down the flames most of the day.

6) http://www.sas.upenn.edu/African_Studies/Newsletters/irinw41.html

IRIN-WA Daily Media Update 41-97, 9/4/97

NIGERIA: Sabotage blamed for pipeline blaze Vandals are blamed for a fire on a pipeline that carries fuel to Lagos and southwest Nigeria. The blaze began at the weekend at Isiwo, in southwestern Ogun State, and as of Tuesday, firefighters were still trying to extinguish it.

7) http://www.atamericas.com/pages/news/970813/energy.htm

Pumping at Caqo Limsn Normalized - Colombia August 13, 1997 The production, transportation, and exportation of crude at the Colombian field Caqo Limsn have returned to normal after 12 days of parlysis due to an explosion in the pipeline, permitting controlling company, Ecopetrol, to ship some 400,000 barrels of oil to US refineries. Lost sales during paralysis amounted to 175,000 barrels a day, or US$3mn in income.

8 & 9) Petroleum Market Report Wednesday, 6 August 1997 U.S. Department of Energy Energy Information Administration

8/1 - rising - gasoline futures recovered strongly from Thursday's expiration selloff, as the September contract gained over 2 cents in its first day as the prompt month. Cat cracker problems at 3 European refineries further tightened gasoline fundamentals, while more last- minute complications arose to delay U.N. approval of Iraq's aid distribution plan at least until next week.

9) 7/22 - mixed - heating oil prices climbed, along with spot gasoline, while others were flat to slightly lower. August NYMEX crude oil futures fell by 10 cents per barrel ahead of expiration, as traders rolled positions into later months. A fire at a small Kansas refinery had minimal market impact.

Ok, that's NINE 1997 pipeline/refinery incidents I turned up with ONE quick and dirty web keyword search that only took me a few minutes.

ALL of them MISSED in the http://www.justpeace.org/explosions.htm list that people are falling all over themselves to praise.

Just the tip of the iceberg in terms of what was missed....if, in 1997 from 1/1/97 to 1/24/97, there were as many web publications as today, and as many people were fanatically looking for the slightest oil or power industry glitches, no doubt the list of 97 glitches would match the 2000 list.

Cripes, there were a ZILLION articles on the massive Indian refinery fire, killed 39 people, and it was MISSED? Give me a break. Talk about lazy research.

If there had been an Indian refinery fire on 1/05/2000 that killed 39 people Carl Jenkins would have had his keyboard go up in flames, he'd be posting so much here about it.

Clearly, the http://www.justpeace.org/explosions.htm is an amateurish joke and of absolutely no value in comparing post and pre-rollover refinery and pipeline problems.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 24, 2000.


John

Keep up the campaign! You will get a raise for this!

-- Rendonite (Rendonite@rendon.org), January 24, 2000.


And I find it simply apalling, frightening even, that someone is clueless enough to actually go to the effort to make a GRAPH of the data in the http://www.justpeace.org/explosions.htm list, as if it means something.

It has about as much value as someone getting a list of fatal car accidents in the US, with a dozen or so a year from 1990-1997, and then the list has a thousand in 1998 and 1999, and there are several hundred just from 1/0/2000 to 1/24/2000, and they make a graph showing the "explosion in fatal car accidents."

Good God, critical thinking has gone to hell. Maybe our schools ARE in trouble.

People have totally lost their ability to critically and skeptically analyze data, statistics, etc.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 24, 2000.


Look, A&&h0le Krempasky, the only reason I did this work was to see what's going to happen to my crude oil call options, OK? I'm not trying to prove anything to anybody.

Draw your own conclusions, but you don't have to be so condescending and obnoxious about it.

-- marc1a (marcia@nckodokan.com), January 24, 2000.



Go to Carl Sagan's Baloney Detector Kit at

http://rucus.ru.ac.za/~urban/docs/baloney.html

and read the part about statistics. Nonetheless, Marcia is doing a good service. It will take time, and much more data, especially control samples from at least the '70s if not earlier, say, the pre-computer era, before it becomes empirically meaningful. But it has to start somewhere, adn she gets my thumbs up so far.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), January 24, 2000.


Way to go, John K! Couldn't agree with you more.

-- anonymous coward (ac@an.on.), January 25, 2000.

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