I am just wondering if this happens in the industry on a regular basis or not. Meaning the reports we are seeing today of shortages in diesel, kero etc...

-- Lucy (windsng@....com), January 21, 2000

Answers

Yes, I remember the same thing happened in December 1992. I will try to find a link, but it was before Web days...

-- You Knowwho (debunk@doomeridiots.com), January 21, 2000.

Lucy, my gut feel is that this IS Y2K related.

The G7 governments will certainly be pressuring OPEC to increase production. If this is Y2K related, than OPEC may be unable to increase even if they wanted to. If it is not Y2K related, OPEC, esp. the Saudis and Kuwait's (our friends?,) may relent and increase production.

Many big oil consumer/suppliers expect some OPEC nations to cheat their self imposed quotas and overship which IS the pattern in the past.

So far it looks like OPEC solidarity is maintaining or not even meeting current production quotas. That is why I think this is Y2K related and therefore unprecedented.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 21, 2000.

The futures markets for crude beyond February/March is not yet showing the run-ups that would indicate that this is truly a sever shortage run-up. If the futures prices for NYMEX crude for March were to go beyond 30 and stay there next week then I would be more suspicious. Right now I would say it's more of a perceptual thing related to OPEC pronouncements and a series of Iraqui shortfalls that are now starting to be corrected.

-- matt (rfp@mail.com), January 21, 2000.

I've never seen a shortage like this in the northeast. Today's Portland Press Hersald in Portland Maine printed a front page aticle about the shortage. It stated that most dealers simply can't get any kerosene at all, at any price. The sprague terminal in South Porrtland has a storage capacity of 11 million gallons. As of yesterday, they had 40,000 gallons on hand. It was not expected to last today. The article also stated that no more will be delivered until February 5th, and that customers will be going without. the price at the pump for deisel fuel has gone from 1.20 per gallon about 9 days ago to 1.65 yesterday, to 1.79 per gallon today. Home heating oil has gone from 1.13 per gallon 4 days ago to 1.45 per gallon today. The article stated the usual, sudden cold temperatures. However, it did mention that two refineries were down due to "mechanical problems". One dealer was quoted as saying it's not a crisis, but it is a very seriuos situation. My guess is that by the end of next week it will be a crisis.....

-- country folk (country folk@Maine.Maine), January 21, 2000.

Best wishes and God's Blessing to you Country Folk.

Please, if possible, continue to post your on the scene updates.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 21, 2000.

No kerosene at any price

Nobody has made me an offer. ;-)

-- cgbg jr (cgbgjr@webtv.net), January 21, 2000.