Reinventing the CIS: Putin Takes the Helm

Summary

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Executive Committee Chair Yuri Yarov stated on Jan. 14 that the Jan. 24-25 CIS Moscow summit will be a notable event in the life of the Commonwealth. Acting Russian President Vladimir Putin will redefine the meaning of CIS membership, in an attempt to make a more functional supra-national organization. Such action will likely induce Georgia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan to withdraw.

Analysis

Since the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, member states with differing visions of that organizations purpose have engaged in a continual tug-of-war. This fractured view of the regions premier supra-national organization cannot last. At the Jan. 24-25 CIS summit in Moscow, Putin will change all that.

Up until now, Russia and Belarus have viewed the CIS as a mechanism to recreate a version of the Soviet Empire. Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Tajikistan have valued the CIS as a method to garner Russian military assistance. Moldova, Kazakstan, Turkmenistan and Ukraine, forced to affiliate with Russia for economic reasons, have often seen the CIS as a necessary evil to be endured. Georgia and Azerbaijan  which were forced into the organization  have doggedly tried to dilute the CISs institutions whenever possible in order to lessen Russian influence. CIS members all have had different priorities, oftentimes siding against Russia. The Georgia-Ukraine-Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan-Moldova (GUUAM) group, specifically formed to counter Russian hegemony, is the most flagrant example of this.

According to the CISs packed summit agenda, Putin will hold no fewer than five sideline meetings. Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan want to hammer together a free trade agreement. Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are interested in petroleum export routes. Armenia and Tajikistan are concerned with security issues. With only a day-and-a-half to cover an aggressive 17-point agenda, Putins sincerity is suspect. With so much to cover in so little time, the official agenda will probably not be adhered to at all.

Instead, Putin will use the summit to transform the CIS from a weak organization filled with near-warring members into a coherent organization. He will not tolerate member states actively undermining the CIS or Russias hegemonic role. States with aspirations to join NATO or the European Union (EU) will be firmly reminded that Western alignment is not a sustainable choice for a CIS member. Putin sees that such double-dealing would erode any possibility of the CIS being a cohesive organization. Putin wants to reinvigorate the CIS and ensure that its members are committed to working with, not against, Russia.

At the summit Putin will force all 11 of Russias CIS co-members to determine their future relationships with Russia. Putin knows that most CIS member states will stay with Russia. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, although vocal and short-tempered, will remain Moscows pet. Kazakstan has nowhere to go except to Russia. While tiny Kyrgyzstan doesnt feel particularly threatened by Moscow, it is dependent upon Russia for access to the wider world. Tajikistan is not prepared to snub Moscow for fear of losing the Russian military support it needs to counter Islamic militants. Armenia, despite its desire to strengthen its independence, is still wholly dependent upon Russia for military support against Azerbaijan in their conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. These five states will willingly keep themselves hitched to the Russian star.

Three other states will likely join with Russia, but will try to delay this for as long as possible. After Jan. 20 talks among Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan collapsed over a trans-Caspian pipeline, even neutral Turkmenistan will need to look to Russia for petroleum export routes. Ukraine and Moldova, having failed in gaining significant EU attention, are now forced to again look eastward. Thus, Ukraine, Moldova and Turkmenistan will be the wafflers, not particularly wanting membership in the CIS, but not having much of a choice.

This leaves three states that will more than likely decide to withdraw from the CIS: Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Uzbekistan still desires to be part of a weak and fragmented CIS. Once it becomes clear that Putin will demand a functional CIS, Uzbek President Islam Karimov will drag his country completely out of the CIS and become Russias Central Asian spoiler.

In the Caucasus, Putin faces a far more serious challenge. Azerbaijan and Georgia have held a half-dozen mini-summits and bilateral meetings in recent weeks with a resurgent Turkey. Topics ranged from oil-pipelines to the proposed Caucasus Stability Pact to their quiet support for the Chechens. In Putins mind, these are excellent examples of what CIS members should not be doing. Both Azerbaijan and Georgia feel that the United States will support them in the face of an angry Russia, yet the United States probably has no intention of providing any direct military assistance.

The CIS summit will consolidate the organizations membership, with Georgia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan increasingly going their own way. Depending upon how tightly Putin seeks to rein in the former Soviet states, these three states would likely withdraw. Such a withdrawal would deal a diplomatic blow to Russia, but then Putin will have confirmed that the three are indeed not allies. The question will then be whether the three who jumped ship should be considered Russias enemies. Continuing to support the Chechens would clearly establish them as enemies. Russia would then no longer categorize these states as disrespectful neighbors to be manipulated, but as insolent foes to be crushed.



-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 21, 2000

Answers

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The next couple of weeks could show a lot of Americans why they should know and care about Foreign policy and Global Events.(IMHO)

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 21, 2000.

Amazing. All of the pieces are falling into place exactly according to the New World Order plan. Russia cannot even handle Chechnya, and now they are going to have three more states working against them. Over the next few years we will be witnessing the last dying gasps from Russia, unless of course they get desperate enough to use nukes, in which case NATO will gladly jump in and put them out of their misery. But for now, all we have to do is sit back and watch them self-destruct. I gotta hand it to the NWO boys, they are getting awful damn good at this game. Maximization of the accomplishment of the objective with minimum expenditure of resources. Ingenious.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), January 21, 2000.

If the NWO crowd weren't real pleased with Jessie Helms' performance yesterday, unless there's a **whole lot** we don't know about Putin, the NWO crowd is not at all happy with Putin. The Sov's are nationalists, first, last and always. Come to think about it, perhaps old Jessie had more reasons for his speech than so far have appeared obvious.

-- Redeye in Ohio (cannot@work.com), January 21, 2000.

If Jessie Helms isn't careful with the words he chooses my guess is he will end up in a plane crash.

I think Putin is probably exactly the guy that the NWO wants in that position, and in fact they probably saw to it that he got there. He is still dumb enough to believe that a nation does not need to be concerned with economic power because dominance can be achieved through military means. He's the Old World Order trying to keep up with the New World Order, it ain't gonna fly and they know it. They are going to waste all of their time and energy picking fights with the kids down the block because Putin is too stupid to gain power through any other means. Without economic power Russia is going to self-destruct.

Russians are stubborn, and I don't blame them for wanting to resist NWO dominance, but it is a losing battle. The only way to stop the NWO is to take away their fuel, money, but it is really a lost cause at this point, because although many Americans still don't realize it, they are eagerly supporting them. Idiot sheeple, what can ya do? They don't know a good thing till it's gone, and then they whine.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), January 21, 2000.

Hawk, you may be right about Putin. Methinks I'll reserve judgement for a bit. If Putin is not directly NWO-manipulated somehow, then his track record, per Stratfor, tells me that this is one ruthless dude, very, very cunning, and probably not that dumb, either. Events are moving very fast, are largely in his favor, and he doesn't care who is in the way.

If the hypothesis that we are seeing the end stages of a decades-long mastroika (sp?) is playing out, is accurate, then Putin was a central player all along.

This is one case where I find myself wishing I knew for certain that it was going to take a whole lot longer to see where the chips come down. Between the Sov general officer just captured by the Chechens, and today's oil developments for example, this could play out very rapidly. Now, what happens if the Sovs close the valves on natural gas exports to Western Europe just a bit, right about now? Maybe another pipeline problem will occur?

-- Redeye in Ohio (cannot@work.com), January 21, 2000.