Thanks to Marcia over at GE for this... R.C. you were right

http://nckodokan.com/charts/crude.html

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000

Answers

DEFINITIVE list (ha!), so far...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

Andy, it is an interesting table, and obviously required much of time and effort. However, I notice some discrepancies between the listings of refinery outages as "unplanned" in the table with the listings of the same refineries as having "planned" maintenance outages in the Bloomberg News Refineries List of January 20, posted in a TBY2000 thread of yesterday.

Someone has posted some info that the sudden kero "shortage" in Maine has resulted from U.S. distributors previously moving kero stocks to Europe, due to anticipation (that is, bad planning) of a mild Northeastern winter (and perhaps also because the sellers get more profit per gallon in Europe). Can anyone further comment on this aspect of the apparently artificial shortage of kero in Maine?

-- Harbor Guy (HarborGuy@OnThe.Waterfront), January 21, 2000.

R.C. opted for a 20%-30% drop in oil supply in his evaluation thread. How can you say he is right?

Shuggy.

-- Shuggy (shimei123@yahoo.co.uk), January 21, 2000.

Shuggy,

No he did not - please don't put words into his mouth, that is a very nasty habit you have...

RC's last major post before rollover gave several percentage estimates for failures, in several areas.

Shuggy,

We have provided you with aample evidence of an increase in oil/refinery incidents based on this year to previous.

Now for once, you and your "friends" LMAO, Wait4, Craing the Cretin and Co.

Put up or shut up.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

Link: http://www.billingsgazette.com/business/20000121_bus05.html

Supply fails to keep up with world oil demand

LONDON (AP) - Global demand for oil increased much faster than supplies at the end of last year, pinching inventories and driving up prices as buyers hoarded crude ahead of feared Y2K-related disruptions, a respected industry study said Thursday. "The numbers show markets that are tight and getting tighter," said the monthly report by the International Energy Agency. Signs that OPEC will extend its production cuts beyond March has added to upward pressure. Prices for the benchmark oils of Europe and the United States rose by more than 4 percent in December and surged further this week. West Texas Intermediate crude in the U.S. was flirting with $30 a barrel, a level not seen since the January 1991 outbreak of the Gulf War. "The market needs more oil now. But non-OPEC supply is growing only slowly in response to the price rises of the last nine months," the report warned.

World demand for oil swelled to "an extremely strong" 77.3 million barrels per day in the last three months of 1999, exceeding available stockpiles by 3.1 million barrels daily.

The Paris-based IEA is part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of the world's richest countries.

Demand should ease slightly this month, it said, as buyers work though inventories they built up as a precaution against Y2K-related supply interruptions. And economic growth seems to be offsetting the economic impact of higher oil prices in much of the world. "I don't think we're near a crisis stage," said Peter Gignoux, head of the petroleum desk at Salomon Smith Barney Citibank. "They're raising a flag and saying, 'Watch out, this market is getting short of oil.' "

A recent cold snap in the northeastern United States has helped underpin prices. Oil refiners, meanwhile, have seen profit margins squeezed as crude prices more than doubled in the past year while prices have increased at a slower pace for gasoline and heating oil. U.S. gasoline prices rose to a 31/2-year high of almost $1.35 a gallon in early December before slipping back 2 cents in early January, according to the Lundberg Survey of 10,000 stations. A short-lived slump in crude prices, due partly to the realization that Y2K fears were overblown, was the most important factor in that decline, analyst Trilby Lundberg said.

OPEC nations have slipped a bit in complying with production quotas, but firm prices haven't led non-OPEC producers to flood world markets with their own oil.

Adding to the pressure, fewer new fields are coming on line and oil ministers from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela began talking last week about extending OPEC production cuts beyond an expected March expiration date. Analysts said they would probably do so through June.

Copyright 2000 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Updated: Friday, January 21, 2000

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), January 21, 2000.

Who cares who is right and wrong when the bottom line is OIL PRICES ARE AFFECTING THE WORLD ECONOMY.

It is happening now. It is causing inflationary pressure.

Neo

Lost in the Matrix

-- Neo (LostintheMatrix@aol.com), January 21, 2000.

Harbor Guy,

When European oil economics are higher than US economics + freight (like it was recently on jet/kero) product flows there. When US economics are higher than Europe+frieght (like they are most of the time on distillate) product flows here. Its called a free market. It works. Its mostly not a contrived gouging.

This current jet/kero/heating oil shortage was precipitated by y2k concerns. Oil companies were concerned about gasoline hoarding. You remember the API press release on oil companies attempt to increase gasoline supplies by 7% before rollover? There's 10-20% of the cut off the distillation colum that can go into gasoline streams or distillate streams. Refiners maxed out gasoline cuts. With refineries operating at capacity, it had to come at the expense of other products production. Hence the current shortage.

Now the publis is gonna demand the removal of MTBE in RFG gasoline (rightfully so). I'm just warning you guys about the gasoline shortage that'll ensue this Spring....Crude oil production and conversion refining operations are both operating very close to capacity. Keep buying the SUVs and then raise hell when gasoline economics skyrocket...

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 21, 2000.

geeeeeeez ... what a table!

great post andy.

-- lou (lanny1@ix.netcom.com), January 21, 2000.

Company Location Type Total Capacity (b/d x000) Lost Capacity Down Date Restart Date Planned Status Reason Source Idemitsu Kosan Co. Tokuyama, Japan entire refinery 120 120 01/20/2000 10/01/2000 planned down planned maintenance link Idemitsu Kosan Co. Tomakomai, Japan crude distillation unit 140 140 01/20/2000 07/01/2000 planned down planned maintenance link Exxon Mobil Baton Rouge, LA refinery 432 02/01/2000 unknown planned up maintenance shutdown link BP Amoco Texas City, TX reformer, hydrocracker, etc. 450 01/31/2000 03/13/2000 planned up "6-wk planned turnaround" link Penzoil-Quaker State Rouseville, (PA?) refinery 01/31/2000 none planned up convert to wax products link Exxon Beaumont, TX Crude 220 . 01/30/2000 02/27/2000 planned up . . Exxon Beaumont, TX Coker 45.4 . 01/30/2000 02/27/2000 planned up . . Tosco Ferndale, WA Refinery 88.5 . 01/28/2000 02/27/2000 planned up . . Equilon Wood River, IL Cat Cracker 45 45 01/20/2000 02/03/2000 planned down planned maintenance link Sunoco Marcus Hook, PA refinery 85 85 01/19/2000 02/02/2000 unplanned down crude line from docking facility. No, problem in the crude heater. link, link Sunoco Point Breeze, Philadelphia, PA cat cracker 20 . 01/19/2000 01/20/2000 unplanned . gas compressor problem link Sunoco Toledo, OH refinery 135 . 01/19/2000 unknown unplanned down flash fire in vapors of Plant 3 OPIS ? Phila. to Syracuse gasline pipeline . . 01/19/2000 . unplanned ? pipe rupture at pumping station vtmldm@epix.net Duque de Caxias Rio de Janeiro, Brasil pipeline . . 01/19/2000 . unplanned down broken pipe line, oil spill link Frontier Cheyenne, WY refinery . . 01/19/2000 . unplanned ? fire in butane pipeline during "routine maintenance" link . Darien, WI school . . 01/19/2000 . unplanned ? natural gas leak, gas main & water main break link Petroleos de Venezuela Amuay Bay, Venezuela refinery 635 . 01/18/2000 02/08/2000 unplanned down . . Petroleos de Venezuela Amuay Bay, Venezuela catcracker 108 . 01/18/2000 02/22/2000 unplanned down mechanical problem link Pennzoil Shreveport, LA Refinery 50 . 01/18/2000 indefinite unplanned down explosion involving naphtha OPIS Arco Carson, CA HC NA . 01/15/2000 02/27/2000 planned ? . . Texaco Nigeria pipeline 120 . 01/14/2000 . unplanned ? terrorism link BP Amoco Yorktown, VA refinery 62 . 01/14/2000 . unplanned ? mechanical problem" OPIS Tosco Rodeo, CA Refinery / hydrocracker NA . 01/12/2000 01/12/2000 unplanned ? Air quality citation due to power failure causing burnoff causing smoky emissions. Prev burn link Motiva Delaware City, DE Crude 173 173 01/07/2000 >1/17/2000 unplanned down mechanical problem (fire 1/3/00), restart attempt on 1/8 failed due to cold weather link Shell Santa Barbara Field, Forcados, Nigeria flow stations . 100 01/06/2000 . . ? fire, force majeure due to "community disturbances" Petroboard Coastal Eagle Pt, NJ Refinery 140 . 01/05/2000 01/06/2000 unplanned ? Loss of "internal generated power" for 15 min. link . Iraq export pipeline 1950 500 01/04/2000 . planned ? turned clock back 4 years for Y2K link Motiva Norco, LA Refinery 220 . 01/02/2000 01/08/2000 unplanned ? power outage OPIS Explorer Houston, TX Pipeline 560 . 12/31/1999 01/01/2000 planned ? . . Colonial Pasadena, TX Pipelines 2100 . 12/31/1999 01/01/2000 planned ? . . Coastal Corpus Christi, Tx Cat Crack 20 . 12/31/1999 01/06/2000 unplanned ? . . Equilon Wood River, IL Crude 310 . 12/30/1999 01/05/2000 unplanned ? . . Clark Lima, OH hydrocracker 24 24 12/26/1999 01/19/2000 ? up shut for repair link Clark Lima, OH Reformer 55 55 12/26/1999 01/18/2000 ? up shut for repair link Equilon Newburn, TN Pipeline 1100 . 12/05/1999 12/07/1999 unplanned ? . . Exxon Benicia, CA HC 32 . 12/03/1999 12/18/1999 planned ? . . Amoco Whiting, IN Cat Crack NA . 12/01/1999 12/15/1999 unplanned ? . . Chevron Pascagoula, MA Cat Crack 63 . 11/20/1999 11/27/1999 unplanned ? . . Valero Houston, TX Cat Crack 61 . 11/18/1999 11/30/2000 planned ? . . Chalmette Chalmette, LA Coker NA . 11/17/1999 11/24/1999 unplanned ? . . Hess St. Crois, USVI Refinery 525 . 11/16/1999 11/20/1999 unplanned ? . . Shell Deer Park, TX Cat Crack 67 . 11/05/1999 11/24/1999 planned ? . . Chevron Wortham, TX Pipeline 50 . 08/10/1999 NA unplanned ? . . Gulf / Coastal Corpus Christi, TX refinery 103 . ?? . . ? FCC Problem OPIS Equilon Los Angeles, CA coking unit 98 98 early 1/2000 7-10 days unplanned ? offline for repairs link homes, businesses Caledonia Twp., MI . . . . . . ? 3 simultaneous fires: furnace,water heater... link ?? NYC Harbor . . . . . . ? inspectors sampling vessels before allowing unloading petroboard Penzoil-Quaker State Shreveport, PA refinery . . . . . ? . . Petroleos de Venezuela Cardon, Venezuela gasoline 305 . . . . ? just ended a 2-month shutdown link Motiva / Shell Norco, LA refinery 220 . . 10 days unplanned ? power outage OPIS Village of Ivanof Bay Ivanof Bay, Alaska pump . . . . unplanned ? sensors on day tank resupply pump did not turn off pump, spilling 10,000 gal of arctic diesel link



-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

I just purchased heating oil today - up $.26 per gallon over 11 days ago. The wood furnace is going into service soon.

-- Dad in Maine (goshen@Maine.IHope), January 21, 2000.

Andy,

I am misquoting R.C.? Read on.

> I also don't think it will reach maximum either. So, I'm still inclined to range it as between a 20% to 30% loss of supply based upon the statistics and insider reports of prior results.

END OF QUOTE

Shuggy.

-- Shuggy (shimei123@yahoo.co.uk), January 24, 2000.