From GE

Untitled (322) Jan 20, 08:44

As all well know, gold surged nearly 6 bucks in the last couple of days - a clear breakout from the period of recent consolidation. By itself this action is highly prophetic of higher precious metal prices going forward. However, it is supremely significant when one relates gold's BO to the following:

- T-Bond yields at 15-month highs...and relentlessly rising

- Crude oil at a 9-year high...on road to $35/barrel

- A raging Wall Street Bear Market looming on the horizon

- A definitive BO of the CRB Index at nearly 212, heralding a new bull market

All the above will attract precious metal investors like crazed bears seeking their honey fix for the golden autumn. Investors will flee the crashing stock market to seek traditional safe haven in precious metals -- just like they did in the 1973/74 stock market crash when gold rose just short of 170%.

Indubitably, the cardinal factor which most assures a gold bull market for us all this year was the decision last year by 15-ECBs to severely curtail gold sales, and to totally cease ALL gold leasing during the next five years. This effectively and substantially reduces SUPPLY vis-a-vis record gold DEMAND. Further, there are good indications that gold's price correction in November, December and early this month is primarily due to the Fed's considerable efforts to allow many of the gold SHORTS off easy without causing irreputable financial damage ` la LTCM debacle of a little over a year ago. Moreover, we feel relatively certain most of this short hedge liquidation is near complete. Theefore, the POG's path of least resistance is UPWARDS.

Without fear of exaggeration we believe 2000 will be a record year for all precious metals INVESTORS.

======================================================================

Got gold?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000

Answers

(re-post) Who the hell are RC and Andy and why should anything they say be taken seriously? Of course they are entitled to their opinions but what would certify them as experts whose words have validity. Seems like every other day some pillar of wisdom comes to the forum and bleats out the newest gospel. Immediately, the supporting posts will appear only to vaporize when the message turns to raw sewage. This scenario repeats itself over and over yet the charlatans continue to suck people in. Control your own mind and dont be so quick to turn it over to others.

-- Look (at@the.facts), January 20, 2000.

"Control your own mind and dont be so quick to turn it over to others."

Exactimundo LATF!

If more people did we wouldn't be in this mess.

Now, please address the points outlined above and tell me if they are pertinent or not.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I was under the impression that this was a discussion forum - so discuss.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

So Andy, let's discuss...

- "A raging Wall Street Bear Market looming on the horizon

--A definitive BO of the CRB Index at nearly 212, heralding a new bull market"

How do these 2 statements relate to each other?

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), January 20, 2000.

CRB= commodities index; this can go up when the stock market goes down.

-- David Holladay (davidh@brailleplanet.org), January 20, 2000.

Tommy, rather, let's round up what we know...

- T-Bond yields at 15-month highs...and relentlessly rising [8% = anyone?]

- Crude oil at a 9-year high...on road to $35/barrel [a relentless rise, despite the accepted mantra that y2k is a done deal... not]

- A raging Wall Street Bear Market looming on the horizon [this is the author's opinion, and mine too. if oil contimues like it is then it's all over. I've said this several times on this forum - "oil shock" will burst bubble.com and then the dominoes collapse...]

- A definitive BO of the CRB Index at nearly 212, heralding a new bull market [watch the CRB. I nearly traded it recently but anyhow all commodities give or take are on an sustained upsurge...]

- Gold. Up six bucks recently, the feb have allowed their short buddies to squirm off the hook, the stage is set for the next rally to $330, then $440 + .... if oill goes ballistic all bets are off]

BTW LATF my name is Andy, what's yours? Don't be shy.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

Too funny. So many morons attack the messenger while cowardly refusing to discuss/debunk facts quoted by the messenger. Well dear idiot, why don't you debunk Andy's points? Or is your attack on Andy because you are unable to use facts? Too funny. Idiots coming out of the woodwork. And I think gold has been a disappointment. Despite that, even I can see that you're unable to discuss this matter on an intelligent basis.

-- X (X@X.com), January 20, 2000.

Andy,

I think gold has not been a good investment. But you're wasting your time responding to Look@thefacts. Ironic that he talks of facts that he does not bring up tacts in his post. Respond to intelligent posters, not clueless ones like Look@thefacts.

-- Gold Sucks (GoldSucks@manipulated.com), January 20, 2000.

Andy, you'd be much more creditable if you'd restrain yourself. You regard moves as an indication of avalanches. When you get hysterical you lose creditability.

For example, the CRB Index HAS increased -- due to major energy related increases (oil, my man, and specifically heating oil). But, corn, soybeans, sugar, and coffee are trading well below their 1995-6 levels. Silver is at 5.12 today (well below the 7.10 price where I exited the long of that market). Yes, gold has come up........from 282 to 289. Gold probably will go somewhat higher, and may even hit the 330 level -- before continuing it's decades long downtrend.

But, just calm down. Please! Present facts and reasoned arguments if you would, not copies of arguments presented by some gold seller with a vested interest in having you rush out and buy his product. Don't present hysterical "THE MARKET WILL CRASH" statements, Andy. Do you not realize that most people who've been on this forum for any length of time went through "THE WORLD WILL CRASH" statements -- many of them from you -- and would prefer a little more substance to their reading?

BTW, the price of gold coins has dropped dramatically since rollover as some people sold back. This is especially true of the 1/10 ounce gold eagles, which dropped from over 36.00 to 32+change.

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), January 20, 2000.

"Look": RC and Andy are people who bring up FACTS replete with citing of SOURCES so that points can be intelligently considered. Try it sometime, you might actually learn something. Moron.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), January 20, 2000.

Andy,

You also ranted how gold would go through the roof with Y2K. It never happened. Gold has been stagnant. I'm beginning to think you are a shill.

-- (I'm@pol.ly), January 20, 2000.

OK Polly calling me a shill, yes I thought Gold would go through the roof over the CDC - it didn't happen did it?

Ask yourself why?

Then consider, if you have a substantial supply of gold, are you happy you own it? Remember it is a means of wealth preservation, it will increase in value in a market meltdown situation. You will also maybe regretting the opportunity cost loss factor of not having put that money in a dot.com company...

Each to his own. Fact is I have 340 oz og gold now, and when it does blow it will be spectacular, and you will not have time to get on the train. I also have 30,000 oz of silver and a whole bunch of oil call options. So each to his own, due dilligence, make your own mind up.

If you know my philosophy you will know that what I'm saying makes sense. It's now just a case of patience, and timing.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

Rocky - fair points - BTW the post was from noula on GE, a repost, but I agree 100%.

What is your take on the 5 points I made.

And regarding the CRB, you'll notice I couched my words, not all commodities are surging of course. Check out copper :o)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

A chimp is number 22 in the top 5000 stock market analysists in the USA. She chose her portfolio by throwing darts.

Discuss why you are smarter than a chimp.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 20, 2000.

Servant - do fuck off, moron, and leave your mother out of this.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

Bad for the US economy, good for gold and commodities.

Thursday January 20 8:43 AM ET

U.S. Trade Deficit Hits New Record in November

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit ballooned to a record $26.50 billion in November, fueled by surging imports from Canada and Europe and the HIGHEST OIL PRICES in nearly 3 years, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Thursday.

Defying predictions of an improvement in the nation's trade deficit, imports of cars, consumer goods and other products surged to an unprecedented $109.39 billion in November...

The trade deficit has been on a tear this year, setting new records month after month. Wall Street analysts had expected the deficit to shrink to $25.7 billion in November instead of continuing to swell...

November's report reflected record imports from key U.S. markets, specifically Canada and Western Europe....

The trade deficit with major OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES rose to $2.81 billion in November from $2.66B in the previous month. The November price per barrel of crude petroleum rose to $20.90, nearly double oil prices a year earlier and the highest since January 1997 when the price was $21.86....

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000120/ts/economy_trade_2.html

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

Andy...

If I ask a question, believe me, I'm never trying to be smart. I am here to learn. I left the market several years ago (smart?) when I was convinced the market should have corrected. Even though I was wrong then, I lack the nerve to venture into these waters. No regrets, but please allow me to extend my questions:

1) E-commerce has been proclaimed the wave of the future. I support this view. However, the valuation given this sector cannot be sustained without a major correction to flesh out the weaklings. Here's my question: With our basic infrastructure trading at reasonable P/E, producing decent profits, supporting the overall market, why must we assume now is the time for correction of the entire market rather than just the bubble in E-commerce.

2)Am I wrong to assume Bonds are declining because we know without question the FED will raise their rates in Feb?

3)CRB: when producer prices have been held at cost of production for years, should they not participate in the ecomonic profits by increasing prices?

4)Oil at $35. That hurts my pocket. I remember last year purchasing gas at .79 cents/gal. It must be payback time! Yet, do you not think at some point price increases will break the back of OPEC, and they realize this?

Thanks, Tommy

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), January 20, 2000.

For anyone remotley interested this is servants mind set

he's a freakin ***banker*** !!!!!!!

that explains it all

Don't sweat it. I've worked in a bank, and take it from me: the only people who are actually have their house sold from under them are those who refuse to pay, or those who have no long term prospects of paying. In a falling market, banks are even more loathe to evict, because they don't get their money back. At worst, you'll default on payments for a couple of years and end up even deeper in the wage slave cycle. And if that bothers you, you shouldn't be in a 30 year mortage anyway; I've got a TEN year mortgage on a small house.

I'll stick my neck out and assume that you are a white male with a good job living in a nice neighbourhood. You'll be way, way down your bank's repossession list. Bad stuff only happens to poor people.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 20, 2000.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

I'd like to take a crack at Tommy Roger's questions:

1) E-commerce has been proclaimed the wave of the future. I support this view. However, the valuation given this sector cannot be sustained without a major correction to flesh out the weaklings. Here's my question: With our basic infrastructure trading at reasonable P/E, producing decent profits, supporting the overall market, why must we assume now is the time for correction of the entire market rather than just the bubble in E-commerce.

Agree. If you look at market breadth on NYSE many stocks are not setting new highs and are actually well off their recent 1999 high marks. The Dow was tinkered with last year to remove some industrial giants and replace them with more volatile tech stocks - this makes the Dow Jones Industrial Average appear stronger than the overallmarket actually is. And it makes the DJIA more vulnerable if tech stocks get hit as they are more volatile to both the up and the down side than heavy industrial and manufacturing companines.

2)Am I wrong to assume Bonds are declining because we know without question the FED will raise their rates in Feb?

I think the safe assumption is the FED has to raise rates - how much and when is open for debate. If the FEd raises rates prior to their scheduled FOMC mtg it would be a very bearish indicator. Look for some activity after Saturdays 1/22 G7 meeting in Tokyo. The G7 are going to attempt a unified approach but indications are that there is not universal agreement on a coordinated effort: Japan wants a strongewr dollar vs their yen to protect their exports, Germany wants a more conservative fiscal policy that would have hard assets like gold and silver, the US has big investment banks with trillion dollar derivative exposure (they are in between a rock and a hard place).

3)CRB: when producer prices have been held at cost of production for years, should they not participate in the ecomonic profits by increasing prices?

Yes, that is inflationary and is part of the spiral of rising interest rates, weaker US dollar leading to a recession or worse.

4)Oil at $35. That hurts my pocket. I remember last year purchasing gas at .79 cents/gal. It must be payback time! Yet, do you not think at some point price increases will break the back of OPEC, and they realize this?

A President of speciality chemical company that relies on petroleum feedstock told that sustained crude over $22/barrel is recessionary. The problem is that in current scenario OPEC sees the purchasing power of our weaker dollar affecting their profits so they want more for their oil. The powers in the oil industry expect OPEC to cheat their self imposed oil quotas by over shipping but there are indications that they are unable to do so due to Y2K or some other systemic problems of unspecified nature (I think it is Y2K impacts but the producers are loathe to admit it and will do all possible to call it something else.

Sooner or later oil reserve will be depleted (and OPEC is well aware of that) so OPEC solidarity is holding for the short to intermediate term.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 20, 2000.

Look@theFacts:

Come out of that corner you've been cowering in and give Andy facts to disbelieve his position. Or are you just another clueless cowardly loser?

-- X (X@X.com), January 20, 2000.

Thanks for your view points Bill P....

Could you possible point me to an ecomonic essay, chart,or site, where I could get a better grip on dollar valuations?

Tommy

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), January 20, 2000.

Currency Values

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 20, 2000.

though young, I've been around a while,
and one thing that is apparent, but that no one speaks about,
is that this new economy and e-commerce both are floating on a
sea of oil (demand).

So the questions to ponder
all begin with
"what happens to?" and end with "when the price of gas goes up to $XX.99 a gal?".
Will there be much seen of free shipping!

-- pliney the younger (pliney@puget.sound.cold), January 20, 2000.