Texaco Y2k Leader Abshier on: *Rumors of oil patch problems* Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 00:17:04 -0600 From: "Abshier, Joseph B (Jay)" Subject: RE: rumors of oil patch problems To: "'Leon A. Kappelman'" , cpsr-y2k X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2448.0) Delivered-to: mailing list cpsr-y2k@cpsr.org Delivered-to: moderator for cpsr-y2k@cpsr.org Mailing-List: contact cpsr-y2k-help@cpsr.org; run by ezmlm

I wish people would stop passing on this stuff. I told anyone who would listen over a year ago that we couldn't find anything in producing or refining that would shut down production. Didn't the fact that nothing substantial happened during the rollover convince everyone this was correct? Give it up.

Jay Abshier Manager - Corporate Year 2000 Office Texaco Inc P O Box 430 Bellaire, Texas 77402 713.432.2300 (office) 713.838.4651 (fax)

-----Original Message----- From: Leon A. Kappelman [mailto:Kapp@unt.edu] Sent: Wednesday, January 19, 2000 7:55 PM To: cpsr-y2k Subject: rumors of oil patch problems

Some of this stuff found its way to the UN maillist for national y2k coordinators from about 180 countries. The subject line read: "Subject: FYI: Excerpt of a posting by "RC" regarding the status of the oil and gas industry..." The veracity of this and other posts is being checked by various parties from the UN list and I will share anything that is discovered. I passed the original message on to Jay Abshier who manages the y2k program @ Texaco, was instrumental in the formation of the oil/energy y2k group several years ago, was a member of the SIM Y2K Working Group, and also participated in EPRI's y2k activities. Jay speaks fluent Texan and minces no words as to the accuracy of the original posting:

------- Forwarded message follows ------- From: "Abshier, Joseph B (Jay)" To: "'Leon A. Kappelman'" Subject: RE: (Fwd) RE: Excerpt of a posting by "RC" regarding the status of... Date sent: Wed, 19 Jan 2000 18:33:29 -0600

Bullshit....and you can quote me.

Jay Abshier Manager - Corporate Year 2000 Office Texaco Inc Bellaire, Texas

------- End forwarded message -------

Leon A. Kappelman, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Business Computer Information Systems Associate Director, Center for Quality & Productivity College of Business Administration, Univ. of North Texas Co-chair, Society for Info. Management Y2K Working Group Steering Committee, YES Volunteer Corps (www.iy2kcc.org) Voice: 940-565-4698 Fax: 940-369-7623 Email: kapp@unt.edu Website: http://www.unt.edu/bcis/faculty/kappelma/ ============================================================

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-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), January 20, 2000

Answers

Andy,

I think you said it best on an earlier thread. RC at least attempts to back up his posts with links or other available info. This Texaco guy is sounding more like an arrogant polly with each new statement. Blah, blah, blah and just take my word for it cause I work for Texaco and am WAY smarter than you dumbasses. Are we sure this isn't LadyLogic? ;-)

Jimmy

-- Jimmy Splinters (inthe@dark.com), January 20, 2000.

>"Bullsh*t"

The jury didn't buy that explanation regarding the Pennzoil/Getty case either - $11 billion, before Texaco filed for bankruptcy protection to dodge the judgment, then settled for $3 billion - bullsh*t indeed.

-- Total Doomer (sky@falling.com), January 20, 2000.

Texaco and all the big oil co.s are in bed heavily with the CIA and Government Jimmy - as I'm sure you probably know. By default therefore Jay is too. He will say anything he has to to protect his company, shareholders and those pulling his strings.

Unlike the gold and silver markets however this one is too big even for the USA. every country on earth needs oil - the price doesn't lie. The truth is slowly coming out.

Look at Ven. Look at the "incidents" occurring daily. these are ***really*** just the tip of the iceberg.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

(re-post) Who the hell are RC and Andy and why should anything they say be taken seriously? Of course they are entitled to their opinions but what would certify them as experts whose words have validity. Seems like every other day some pillar of wisdom comes to the forum and bleats out the newest gospel. Immediately, the supporting posts will appear only to vaporize when the message turns to raw sewage. This scenario repeats itself over and over yet the charlatans continue to suck people in. Control your own mind and dont be so quick to turn it over to others.

-- Look (at@the.facts), January 20, 2000.

Wonder how Texaco Public Relations spun this one (from 1997, only $200 billion):

Copyright ) 1997 The Seattle Times Company

Jan. 9, 1997

Texaco fires key executive

by Associated Press

WHITE PLAINS, N.Y. - Texaco has fired one top executive and penalized three others whose remarks degrading minorities or suggestions that lawsuit documents be destroyed were secretly recorded.

The actions were taken "because it has been determined by the company that these employees' conduct in this matter clearly violated the company policy and our Code of Conduct guidelines," Chairman Peter Bijur told employees in a letter.

But Texaco said it could not release the report that prompted yesterday's punishment because federal prosecutors felt it could interfere with a criminal probe into whether executives had destroyed evidence.

The company eliminated benefits for two retirees, including Richard Lundwall, the executive who made the tapes and released them to the plaintiffs in a race-discrimination suit. Under threat of a boycott, Texaco settled the suit for $176 million.

Texaco has announced workplace reforms prompted by the suit, in which 1,400 minority employees claimed Texaco reserved the best promotions and biggest raises for whites and harassed blacks.

Fired was David Keough, who was an assistant treasurer at the time the tapes were made in 1994 and had become chief financial officer of a Texaco subsidiary, Heddington Insurance. He had been suspended since November.

Peter Meade, assistant general manager of Texaco's fuel and marine marketing division, who also had been suspended, will be suspended for two weeks more and was ordered to attend sensitivity training.

Texaco would not give specifics on why any of the four were being disciplined, but said the punishment was based on a separate investigation Texaco commissioned.

Texaco permanently suspended "those benefits which are legally allowable" for Lundwall and a second retiree, Robert Ulrich, who was Texaco's treasurer.

Lundwall is the only Texaco executive charged so far in the federal probe into whether documents sought by the plaintiffs were destroyed, as the tapes suggest.

-- Total Doomer. (sky@falling.com), January 20, 2000.

Agreed. RC and Andy know a great deal more about this stuff that pretty much anyone here, and certainly more than some oil industry shill that's simply covering his own behind.

-- (hal@gostek.org), January 20, 2000.

How come so many more refineries and pipelines are blowing up this year as compared to last year?

If they can answer this question truthfully, then I will not be returning to this forum for early warnings of potential disasters.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), January 20, 2000.

Seriously; who are RC and Andy? We've seen so many self proclaimed experts falling flat on their faces that it probably bears repeating why these two should be any different.

Thanks.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 20, 2000.

If anyone is interested in knowing what "CPR" is all about, I suggest visting his "home turf", the . If you can even follow what he and the other inmates are talking about, you've got me beat.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), January 20, 2000.

Servant you asshole, I've been here posting for 2 years. You've been here about 2 nonoseconds so you can [fill in the blank]...

Still waiting for you to post something, anything at all, pertinent and useful.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

>>RC and Andy know a great deal more about this stuff that pretty much anyone here, and certainly more than some oil industry shill that's simply covering his own behind.<<

This is TOO funny.

Remember all the TB2000 "experts" in 1998 and 1999 excoriating the banking, gov't, utility "shills" for covering up the massive problem that was looming??? Turns out the shills have been right ("but we're only xx days into 2000", the Doom Chorus will cry).

Here we have the top Y2K guy at Texaco going on the record calling RC's claims "bullshit". Hey, why don't you guys get RC to call Jay whathisname and they can have a chinwag and get this little misunderstanding straightened out pronto?

[Cue Andy-Pandy: "Canuck, you're so full of sh*t your eyes are brown]

-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), January 20, 2000.

Steve H.

First link not working.

Personal note: I've been away for a while contemplating Y2K and other things. Now I'm back. The economy is still a bubble. Our people are not prepared. We still need to be prepared -- for an economic collapse, if not a digital one.

Once again. I'm back.

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), January 20, 2000.

Get over it crybaby aanuck. You sre still smarting from the pasting I gave you before I see, heh heh heh!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

Oh, Andy-Pandy

Getting "pasted" by you is like being savaged by a dead sheep. (And if you know your British politics, you'll know where that phrase came from.)

I think the only pasting you do is your head on the pavement after you've had one too many pints of the dark stuff.

Hugs n Kisses

JC

-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), January 20, 2000.

Andy

So you have been posting for 2 yearsso what? Dont you mean to say that you have been cut & pasting for over two years and still dont know jack about nothin. Just another forum expert with a bad case of self-inflated worth.

Heller

One need not like CPR to acknowledge the fact he has been right on the money where issues related to Y2K are concerned. You however have been very wrong in ALL of your predictions and should NEVER be taken seriously about anything in the future.

Like most of the participants on this forum I admit to having no special powers or insider information to share with everyone. However, I do have a knack for sifting out the BS and the artists who bring it here. You know who you are.

-- Wait4 (the@real.story), January 20, 2000.

=======================>>> .

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

Wait4,

you are just ***another*** coward, hiding, and springing up like the proverbial turd when it suits... nobody is impressed my friend.

Come on, who are you really... you are obviously a regular, you know about Heller and myself...

As I said, just ###another### coward, one of many on this forum...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

If anyone is interested in knowing what "CPR" is all about, I suggest visting his "home turf", the "Debunking Y2K" board. If you can even follow what he and the other inmates are talking about, you've got me beat.

One need not like CPR to acknowledge the fact he has been right on the money where issues related to Y2K are concerned. You however have been very wrong in ALL of your predictions and should NEVER be taken seriously about anything in the future.

Actually, I haven't been wrong about "ALL" of my predictions yet. However, I have admitted to being wrong about SOME of my predictions. Whereas you, as an anonymous coward, cannot be taken seriously at any time.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), January 20, 2000.

Perhaps ol' Jay ought to have a discussion with ol' Cliff. Let em' hash out their differences, you know...source to source.

Link to Cliff's comments

This sobering post is from the Ed Yourdon's discussion "invitation only" forum. The writer is definitely in the position to know. ac

Sender: ed@yourdon.com User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.01 (1630) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 14:04:54 -0500 From: Ed Yourdon To:

Cliff,

Your news is pretty sobering. Indeed, very sobering. I don't think there's anything I can add to it at this point, other than suggesting that we all keep our eyes open to watch what's going on...

Ed

From: "Cliff ...." Organization: Reply-To: Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 09:36:00 -0800 To: Subject: [] Re: More about resiliency and robustness

Ed, Could you also put me on the digest version? It doesn't matter much, but.....

Anyway, some other news. The contract (last, pre rollover) that we completed was a contingency plan. Well, they are running on it now, and have just released an RFP for the complete replacement system as everything we predicted would happen, did happen. The govt agency took a 75% productivity hit in the one section, and the mgmt of the rest of the resource is down at least 50%. So they fought for money and got it, and now are slowly moving to replace.

Also, a programming friend in Saudi Arabia says the area that he is working on (i do not know the name of his current site, but he is in the 3rd largest oil port in the region) is basically toast. I have only had one cryptic email from him since rollover. He said that his area has terminal flow issues.

ALso, locally, the need for device driver coders is rising as are rates for the work. Hard to say yet how bad it will be, but usually we get offered about 4 jobs a year at the hardware level. In this week alone (two days now) we have been offered four and I have two calls yet to return to recruiters. So.......

BTW: My friend in Saud always maintained that it would take 40 to 60 days to determine how bad the oil problems would be. He had originally said that oil at 30 a gal by the end of feb would signal a 7 to 10% hit in production. Now we are at near 30 by the end of Jan. What that would indicate cannot be good......

I guess that my fall back position of getting into the alternative energy business by this summer.

"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change."

Charles Darwin

Cliff H Tenax Software Engineering Vortex is at ......

Link to Cliff's website and email address

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), January 20, 2000.

Perhaps there is a logical explanation, but I would like to know why there is a discrepancy between what Jay Abshier is saying now....

I wish people would stop passing on this stuff. I told anyone who would listen over a year ago that we couldn't find anything in producing or refining that would shut down production. Didn't the fact that nothing substantial happened during the rollover convince everyone this was correct? Give it up.

....and the Wired interview with Mr. Abshier....

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/7.04/texaco_pr.html

Link

Back in July 1998, Jay Abshier, Texaco's Year 2000 project manager, wanted to alert people to Y2K. "I want to show that Y2K is not a hoax," he said on the phone. Six months later, he wanted to calm everyone down: "Now it's gone too far the other way, into overhyped fears."

Abshier is one of the very few corporate Y2K managers who wanted to speak on the record. He had an agenda, of course - "I want to show that Texaco is doing a good job," he said. But his larger goal was to deliver what surely is the most difficult message to convey about Y2K: that Year 2000 problems are real and may indeed be locally severe; and also that hard work, engineering good sense, and intercompany cooperation can minimize the damage.

Simple question here -- if a country or company did not do the hard work that was necessary to fix Y2k or did not have good engineering sense, is it possible that the country or company could be having problems now? Mr. Abshier's position is unclear.

-- A tracker (of@current.events), January 20, 2000.

This Is Not a Test - For Texaco's millenium commandos, the war against Y2K is being fought one RTU at a time.

-- Germane (to@this.discussion), January 20, 2000.

The discrepancy is completely appropriate for an industry shill. Abshier is just spinning lies to cover up the obvious problems in his industry. He won't be able to cover them up forever, though, and they will soon come crashing down on him.

-- (hal@gostek.org), January 20, 2000.

I wish people would stop passing on this stuff. I told anyone who would listen over a year ago that we couldn't find anything in producing or refining that would shut down production. Didn't the fact that nothing substantial happened during the rollover convince everyone this was correct? Give it up.

I have to ask - is this any way for a project manager for a major oil company to conduct himself? He sounds more like a teenager with a bad attitude in this exchange. If this is indeed for real, and he has been properly represented, he lost all credibility with me with this kind of conduct! What's ironic is that in doing this, he has actually given culpability to "RC" by attempting to tear him down!!

-- John Cauthen (johnr@cetlink.net), January 20, 2000.

Simple solution to B.S.

If all these professional eyes are lurking, now is the time to come out of the closet into the light. Dispell the rumors with real facts, real names, real dialogue. Put up or shut up.

"The Truth Will Set You Free"

-- Steve (miracle-man@bigfoot.com), January 20, 2000.

So now that Jay Abshier has been shown to have said that there would be serious problems if everything wasn't fixed, can we expect that CPR will debunk his own bogus comments? I'm not holding my breath waiting.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), January 20, 2000.

Hey, maggot -- crawl back in your hole. LL misses you over there.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), January 20, 2000.

Any way we could get Mr. Abshier to leave a message on this thread?

-- Let's hear it from (the@original.source), January 20, 2000.