Ed,I realize that this is from your private forum and not meant for all to see. However someone posted it on a daily news site, Issue Action News, so now it's in the public domain. I do wish to point out that I was not even aware of the private forum and would not have reposted it had I had access to your forum.

LINK

-- Ed but not Ed Yourdon (ed@lizzardranch.com), January 19, 2000

Answers

ed@lizardranch,

Yes, that message was posted on my private forum -- not that there are any deep, dark secrets there. All I've done is to move the old "HumptyDumptyY2K" forum over to egroups; you can see a note describing it on the top-level page of my web site.

The message was posted yesterday, if I recall correctly. I don't know the poster personally, and as I've said on several recent occasions, I don't have any personal expertise, experience, or close friends in the oil industry -- so I'm not in a position to vouch for the accuracy or credibility of the information that's being discussed. It looks and sounds like it was composed by a responsible adult who knows what he's talking about ... but on the Internet, nobody knows who you are, what you are, or what you may have been smoking or drinking before you made your post.

Seems to me that IF the information is correct, current, etc., it would imply that things are going to get very rocky. Like everyone else here, I've just been watching the headlines and postings about all of the refinery problems ... I know so little about the oil/refinery industry that I don't have a clue whether we're experiencing more problems this year than we did at the same time last year. The only thing that seems real, tangible, and irrefutable (sp?) is that the PRICE of oil is higher than it has been for 8 years. There must be a reason for that...

Anyway, thanks for letting me know that the original posting had been re-copied elsewhere...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 19, 2000.

A fascinating post. This would explain a lot of the bullishness of crude these days. After all, I know we've eaten down the overhang, but these recent moves are pretty amazing. Here's some info I dug up from a Jan 2000 update from the EIA. Don't take any of this as gospel as these updates are frequently far behind the real deal, however they are a great starting point. I plan to research your post tommorrow and dig up anything I can. My guess would be that they're not talking about Ras Tanura, but rather Juaymah or Yanbu. Here's the info and a link to the whole report:

EIA Saudi Report

Ports and Pipelines Most of Saudi Arabia's crude oil is exported via the Arabian Gulf through the Abqaiq processing facility. Saudi Arabia's primary oil export terminals are located at Ras Tanura (5 million bbl/d capacity) and Juaymah (3 million bbl/d) on the Arabian Gulf, plus Yanbu (3 million bbl/d) on the Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia operates two major oil pipelines. The 4.8 million bbl/d East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline) is used mainly to transport Arabian Light and Super Light to refineries in the Western Province and to Red Sea terminals for direct export to European markets.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 19, 2000.

What does Gordon Gecko think about this?

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), January 19, 2000.

I've all kinds of "curt" Troll responses to this, but in view of the seriousness of this, it would be childish.

My only thought is that if this is what is going on in Saudi Arabia, what's happening elsewhere? Previous information had it that none of the mid-East countries were any better shape. Indeed, it may be oil that brings us down. I wonder how long it will take before oil dries up and the government can't keep this quiet, from the public. And, please don't tell me that our government isn't already aware of all of this, now.

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), January 19, 2000.

Thanks Gordo.

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), January 19, 2000.

Hiding something as strategic as this would be considered another impeachable offense. I wouldn't put it beyond them for a second. I plan to do some hard digging tommorrow to find anything I can on this.

Folks, these are wild days on the trading floor. I watched the screen today right before the close and API's came out. I had recommended closing positions prior to API's because I felt they would be clouded. I can't say why I felt that, but I had a hunch that the stats weren't going to be anywhere near as bullish as most thought. Turns out I was right. Anyway, while watching the screen, I saw Feb crude, which is always volatile right before it goes off the board (contract expires shortly), and I saw it uptick huge to 29.25 which was like a .25 move then two seconds later it blasted upto 29.60-65 which folks who look at such things might realize are key pivots. The point here is the strength at which these moves were made. It was amazing. Bang. Bang. No penny here penny there. Two solid moves. Jesus. That was fun to watch. I'm now wondering if the API's are being doctored more than normally. I'll look to the DOE's for confirmation tommorrow.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 19, 2000.

Thanks Gordon for the reference. I spent 1982-1987 in Kingdom. When I first arrived Saudi production was around 10 million barrels a day. This was before the East-West pipeline was commissioned and the industrial city of Jubail was built. Ras Tanura was providing most of the export market at the time. I'm curious in this reference where they came up with 5 million BD of capacity. I am also interested in the gas production issues that the Kingdom has encountered. My understanding in 1987 was that the flared gas was going to be used for power generation. At the time alot of gas plant work was going on to expand generation capacity for SCECO as well as power for desalination. If I remember correctly the Saudis had to maintain a minimum production for waste gas processing. In 1987 the new gas fields were not in production hence Aramco was in a bit of a bind. If you can find anything out about these two issues it would be greatly appreciated.

P.S. I lived in Al Kobar if there are any other expatriates out there.

-- PA Engineer (PA Engineer@longtimelurker.com), January 19, 2000.

Just for reference. Those of you who would like to monitor the hiring at Aramco can go to www.aramcoservices.com. If there is an increase in the hiring of instrument and process control people because of embeddeds we will see it here.

-- PA Engineer (PA Engineer@longtimelurker.com), January 19, 2000.

hey all, just being careful here...has anyone confirmed that this actually was from ed's private list? anyone ever heard anything before from cliff h.? tenax software????

sure looks legit, but....just checking...

o)<

mi

-- mike (mike@knuckledragger.com), January 19, 2000.

Personally, I am hoping this is not legitimate.

-- ilander -- (ilander@minot.com), January 19, 2000.

PA Engineer

Thanks for the post. Now wouldn't that be a pissah! No power for desal. Yikes.

Still got any contacts in the biz? Call them up and hit em fast and hard with the info and see if they blink. If the line gets quiet you know we're in the soup.

Thanks again for the info. I really am gonna check this out tommorrow.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 19, 2000.

You know, I've been waiting to hear something out of Saudi, especially once I heard about the Venzuela refers going down two days ago.

This goes a long way towards explaining why Venzuela and Saudi oil ministers have been having some cozy talks lately and then come out publicly promoting continued OPEC quotas.

The reason their promoting quotas is hey, now they're enforceable. For once it seems, nobody can cheat because nobody has the capability. Remember before Rollover, how the Sauds and Venzi's were boasting in promises that they would pick up the slack caused by problems elsewhere?

Reminds me of the old adage: "Let he who thinks he is standing take heed lest he fall" ... Looks like these boys should have been more concerned for themselves.

Now having said all of that, we don't know for sure that this report to Ed's Humpty Dumpty Forum was true. But unlike the pollies, it should not be dismissed. It does indeed fit the pattern that I've been seeing and hearing of late. Talk has begun to loosen up a little bit in the last 2 days and I suspect that if the problems continue to escalate for the oil biz that they are gonna have a hard time hiding these problems for much longer. I think they're hoping that they'll soon go away and I am looking between the lines and suspecting that these decision makers have been thinking things would taper down by now. Instead, the pace seems to continue to "cascade" perhaps? It certainly seems that way.

After rollover, I figured we'd peak on problems being reported publicly by mid Feb after the end of month problems come to light. Then, I figured things would begin to taper down and the damage done would probably take til June or so to get patched back up and going in the most severe cases. This may still be so.

It could also be that the recovery may be faster or longer.

It may also be that we won't see peaking until March, April, May or who knows it may not peak until June or beyond. It's probably too early to say, but I gauge on the best evidence seen to date.

If this fellow's report is true about Saudi Arabia, then I suspect the likelihood grows that things will continue to escalate and it may take a lot longer to peak than I'd figured. Still, I just don't think it will be worse than a "5" for oil.

It's frustrating for me, to hear what I hear, but realize I can't go public and provide any documentation without putting my contacts at risk. So, I sit back and watch. I'm still looking for news from the oil refers on West Coast plus oil well problems in West Tex and out on the Gulf Coast offshore.

Thanks to both Eds.

Gordon, hope you can find out more.

-- RC (racambab@mailcity.com), January 20, 2000.

Goody, another anonymous unverifiable anecdote.

I remember when I respected and admired Ed Yourdon because he based his observations on facts and figures, rather than anonymous unverifiable anecdotes like most other "experts" use.

Sad days indeed.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 20, 2000.

Servant,

I beleive that if you reread Ed's comment slowly and carefully (stopping occasionally to sound out each word), you will discover yourself to be an idiot. BTW, if you keep making off-the-cuff character attacks like this one, based in no way upon what someone else actually wrote and substantiating your case with no evidence, I am sure most on this forum will soon discount everything you write.

The original post was NOT by Ed Y. Ed's followup comment spent two paragraphs empasizing he was not responsible and could not verify the content of the original post. Then he finally noted that IF the post were true, we might be in for a rocky ride.

What a pathetic little moron you are. I am sure you are depriving some village of its idiot. Get a Job! Alternatively, you could just confine your posts to the anti-Y2K forum. In this manner, I am sure you would improve the IQ of both groups.

-- Bugeye (Lurker@New.com), January 20, 2000.

What bugeye said. What a pathetic loser you are servant.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

From the top link...

"I guess that my fall back position of getting into the alternative energy business by this summer."

Words of wisdom... for the planet.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 20, 2000.

I wish Dog Gone, the guy who posted this

Update on Saudi Oil Ports--not good on Sep 30 and resurfaced on Dec 20 confirm them in

Let the (oil) chips (embedded) fall where they may. UN says Arab oil nations are toast?

would surface. Seems odd that he was right there when I reminded everybody about him on Dec 20, and now with the oil situation as it is for several days he hasn't surfaced. What he said earlier, seemed to on the right path, so it would be nice to hear what he has now.

Well I've posted this now in 3 threads (2 paging him) so lets see if we got his attention.

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), January 20, 2000.

Awhile back didn't some folks on this forum say they supposed that "servant" took a nome de plume that indicated he is, indeed, a public servant being paid to disrupt posts that could alert people to real problems? That opinion hasn't changed here.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), January 20, 2000.

For anyone who is interested in *really* checking out the author of this disturbing information on Ed Yourdon's site, you can go here to find out who he is, and who he works for. There is even an email address for him.

Link to Cliff's website

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), January 20, 2000.

we have found Dog Gone. He's posting in:

PAGING DOG GONE!!!!!!

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), January 20, 2000.