Inquiring minds want to know.

-- Bob (tRex@Aol.com), January 19, 2000

Answers

Bob,

It doesn't supply any oil, it refines oil and supplies some refined product, like gasoline, kerosene, or diesel. It doesn't supply a large chunk of our refined products, I believe gordon or downstreamer said it was like 7%. And lastly, how much higher do you want petroleum products to be?

-- J (Y2J@home.com), January 19, 2000.

1. We don't import that much refined gasoline. I think this is at most 5% of all of our gasoline.

2. Crude oil APPEARS to be continuing to flow. Most of the visible problems have come from refining. Why would crude oil prices be any higher based on the public information available.

3. The only remaining question is how many more refineries will shut down before the others can be brought back on line?

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), January 19, 2000.

WELL THAT"S ODD! All this talk about oil prices going up because of all these refinery plants breaking down when they aren't producing any oil at all they just refine it!

Then what is the correlation of oil prices going sky high because of refineries down?

-- Jane (jsweet@888.com), January 19, 2000.

Jane...THAT'S the $64,000 question! That's why many are scratching their heads.

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), January 19, 2000.

Here is a link that may help:

Crude Oil News

http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyOil/mw_crudeoil5.html

-- Dee (T1Colt556@aol.com), January 19, 2000.

Refineries are down fairly regularly in the course of normal operations......sometimes planned shutdowns and other times when unforseen events occur and repairs are necessary......

I have seen no credible evidence whatsoever that there is a higher level of shutdown incidents in the refineries....just a lot of 'red truck' reports........

Bottom line.....doomers straining to report every incident they can lay their hands on to support their bogus theory that there are problems serious enough to shut down society as we know it.....

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), January 19, 2000.

(pulling finger out of nostril)

"WELL THAT'S ODD! All this talk about wheat prices going up because of all these farms breaking down when they aren't producing wheat at all they just grow wheat plants!

Then what is the correlation of wheat prices going sky high because of farms down?"

"well heck jethro, I'll just have another pull of that shine there"

-- gotno mind (wereingrown@home.nut), January 19, 2000.

http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyOil/mw_crudeoil5.html

Link

Wednesday, January 19, 2000

Last updated: 00:38 EST

U.S. oil products jump on cold, refinery outage

By KERM YERMAN

A big jump in New York Harbor heating oil as cold weather gripped the northeast and firmer gasoline due to a refinery outage in Venezuela lifted the oil products barrel on Tuesday.

February NYMEX heating oil gained about 4.5 percent or three cents a gallon as Weather Services Corp (WSC) said a cold snap in the US northeast is likely to last for another 10-12 days and possibly for another week beyond that.

Oil dealers said cargoes of Russian heating oil were heading for the U.S. but would be too late to meet prompt demand in New York harbor which drove premiums to some 4 cents above the February NYMEX contract which closed at 76.70 cents a gallon.

A prompt cargo that traded at 2.65 cents above the NYMEX last Friday was discussed at 4.50 over on Tuesday, said traders. But deliveries in the first half of February were talked at just one cent over.

Forward crack spreads for the gulf coast against NYMEX eased to 95 cents a barrel from $1.02 last Friday for the second quarter this year. Third and fourth quarters talked $1.54 and $2.66 respectively.

The discount for Gulf Coast to the NYMEX climbed to 2.43 under from 2.70 on Friday.

Jet prices were still discussed at frimer levels and the undertone remains strong. but remain some way below recent peaks of 21 cents over the NYMEX. The balance of January talked between 13 and nine cents over the screen with lower levels for February.

Pipeline delivered A-grade mogas traded at 0.60 and 0.30 cents under the screen on the Gulf Coast but get a lift due to shortages from Venezulea.

Traders said an unexpected outage at the giant Amuay catalytic cracker was likely to lift prices over the next few days despite good stocks in New York harbor.

Further forward the Gulf coast mogas crack traded at 4.55 for the second quarter and talked $4.55 for the third.

-- (in@the.news), January 19, 2000.

gotno,

If you are making fun of the lady's post above, then your analogy is off base.

If a farm were shut down it would affect the price of the raw material(wheat plants, as you put it) and also the finished product, wheat. However, a refinery is not akin to a farm, it is more like the flour mill. Therefore, if a refinery is having problems, you should see the finished product(gas, diesel, heating oil, etc.) go up in price as supply dwindles. The price of the raw material(crude oil) can actually drop in such a scenario as there is a glut that cannot be processed.

-- J (Y2J@home.com), January 19, 2000.

If you do the calculations [based on the published numbers; which could be totally incorrect], it supplies less than 1% of our refined products.

Best wishes,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), January 19, 2000.

Craig, i agree entirely with you, there is no evidence to support the doomers.

Anything can be hyped up to appear much worse than reality. I would have thought that they had learnt a thing or 2 by now, but it seems not.

-- Mr. Sane (hhh@home.com), January 19, 2000.

[Don't feed the trolls]
Umm, does pulling their head out of the sand count?
The reality of $28-29 oil is documented.
Why is up for speculation.
How Long is open to disscussion.
Possible effects will be debated here.


-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 19, 2000.

Nicely listed....however, I don't believe that the sand is where most of the troll's craniums hae been inserted. (You know, it's very hard to get that brown stain out of their ears. No, no. I don't think the stain is from oil).

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), January 19, 2000.

There is a total disconnect in this thread. The original statement was concerned a Ven refinery. It doesn't produce a significant fraction of our needs for refined products. It should have no effect on our available crude. In a practicle sense, it makes no difference why it died. That is all something else. Say didn't you say you were also from WV. You should also understand this.

Best wishes,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), January 19, 2000.

I may be wrong but wouldn't it stand to reason that a reduction in oil or refined products any whare in the world would put pressure on the world market prices. Someone needs to go into the markets and purchase the shorted product. If the market prices get bid up, This is how we in the United States could be effected by other countries misfortunes. Maybe someone with experience in the business can let us know if this is faulty reasoning.

-- Gambler (scotanna@arosnet.com), January 20, 2000.

Z1X4Y7,

I don't know if your reply was directed to me, just in case, here is a clarification (I hope).
The price of Feb contracts on crude oil have passed $29 a barrel.
Many people want to know Why. This, I think, is speculation at the moment.
We are discussing, on many threads, the possible factors that would cause this result. Like normal, we are getting facts, opinions, rumors, press releases, historical anecdotes, and the occasional flame.

If you are a polly, doomer, troll, republican, democrat, male, female, young, or old the price of oil will affect your life to some degree.

I would guess that most people still here that are posting and researching are not single issue zealots. Some people may try to continue bashing others that don't agree with a particular point of view. I was hoping that they would stop the name calling (on Both sides) and just discuss the topic of the day.
The original couple of answers gently corrected the mistakes in the original question, and offered links to provide further information. Then along came Craig with a chip on his shoulder and started blasting away.

Let's not get stuck on Why, "How Long" and the "Possible Results" are more important to our pocketbooks.

BTW: Lifelong Texan.

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 20, 2000.

PI:

I agree.

Best wishes:

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), January 20, 2000.