Right now I'm gearing for a long camp out. Economicly, nothing to do with Y2k we our in our last days of good times. If oil becomes scarce, thing will go very quick. The US dollar was a safe haven before y2K and now investors are fleeing the greenback. I have a feeling something is about to happen and I am preparing for the worst.

-- Frank (frank @hotmail.com), January 17, 2000

Answers

ok you smart guys in the area of economics. what are the primary indicators for which we should be looking that will indicate the coming of the "fall"????

-- tt (cuddluppy@aol.com), January 17, 2000.

Thanks, Frank. It's reassuring to know there's someone out there more extremist than myself. Locally, there a car-dealer who runs a spot featuring a "depression-era geezer" who saves everything, from tv-dinner trays to pop bottles ... displaying his collection he querries the camera "What'll we do for money when the banks fail?????" Was always the best antidte for this board. Now I've got to tape a copy before they pull the ad.

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-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.tree), January 17, 2000.

If you are gearing for "a long camp out" then, by definition, you are not even close to "preparing for the worst."

-- formerly (its@coming.soon), January 17, 2000.

Your newspaperboy robs you at gunpoint??

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), January 17, 2000.

Asside from Bible study to prep for the TRULY worst (from some points of view) the leading indicators of a crash MIGHT include a seriously stronger Yen (between 90 and 98 (or less) per dollar), a steep, sustained rise in Oil prices, and a steep rise OR steep FALL in Gold/Silver prices.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 17, 2000.

Squirrel Hunter, Too many signs are being posted and are saying Look Out". Everything is being purchased on credit and when this buckles, the FED is going to print dollars like wev'e never seen before. Everything is going to be in very short supply when people realize whats happening. I hate to say it"Clinton has turned this country into a banana republic. It's going to take more than just paper dollars to buy gas. Got wheel barrels full of dollars.

-- Frank (frank@hotmail.com), January 17, 2000.

Wheel barrels full of dollars for gas? Why? Don't Arabs have toilet paper?

-- Chris Tisone (c_tisone@hotmail.com), January 17, 2000.

LOL Chris, well said! My concern too. Or is it one of those "left hand" cultures?

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 17, 2000.

Thanks so much for the heads up, Frank. Goin' out right now to get two more cases of tuna and another 50lbs. bag of rice.

-- TrollStomper (DoomersUnited@TB2000.Net), January 17, 2000.

Watching the Yen, Euro, gold/silver, oil are all fine and dandy if you want to recognize a slow-moving collapse but the signals will be mixed and only clear with the aid of hind-sight (isn't everything, i.e. the Great Roll-Over to 2000 a couple of weeks back). If we are going to have a real collapse, IMHO, it'll be breath-takingly fast with no time for the little outsiders to do anything other than watch their life-savings evaporate while CNBC commentators switch between having coniptions & glossing over the painful carnage.

-- Paranoia Will (Destroy_Y@BlackCopters.com), January 17, 2000.

I agree with Chuck. A stronger Yen vs. the Dollar OR a stronger Euro vs. the Dollar could cause an acceleration of the T-Bond dumping we're seeing in Asia. It's only happening on a small scale right now, but if the dollar takes a big dump (it would have to be huge, 50% or more) compared to the Euro or Yen, expect Asia and Europe to get out of the dollar and into the Euro, fast.

Everything goes down hill from there. Except Gold and Oil.(& other precious metals such as lead, copper and brass >;) They will go skyhigh.

Inflation will skyrocket = FRN's will be nearly worthless.

Got wheelbarrows?

-- Powder (Powder47keg@aol.com), January 17, 2000.

Paranoia, I also agree with you. A small mushroom or other WMD planted in Wall Street or Washington DC could bring the whole house of cards down. Faster than you could say "Duck 'n' Cover". Every enemy would sieze upon it as an opportunity.

-- Powder (Powder47keg@aol.com), January 17, 2000.

So, is this a bad time to put money back into the bank/credit union?

Serious replies appreciated.

-- (notmyusualhandle@here.now), January 17, 2000.

I'd hang on to it a little while longer. Or better yet buy some gold (and take possession) at today's prices and sell it off later if things start to cool off. You really can't lose investing with gold. But patience is sometimes required, and you'll proably do better than earning interest.

Personally, I am required to use direct deposit. All my money comes out by lunch-time on paydays.

-- Powder (Powder47keg@aol.com), January 17, 2000.

Notmyusualhandle:

Wether or not to keep money in a bank is a very personal decision-I had no bank account for years and, because my life was simple, I had no problems. As I got married and things became more complicated, I went back to the bank-it makes paying bills a lot easier-I hated having to get money orders all the time-I am suspicious of fractional reserve banking-BUT the banking system does not appear to be collapsing-their must be quadrillions of financial transactions every day in the us alone-we are a far cry from the terrible "cascading cross-defaults" that gnorth loved to predict-their have certainly been glitches, but what precentage of all transactions have been affected to this point? I suspect the number to be infinitely small.

Everyone must assess their own risk factors, and no matter what the gold bugs tell you, there is more risk in buying gold as compared to getting a simple 3% interest on a checking or savings account-I know many here would love to see the banking system collapse-If you use logic, if there were going to be MAJOR problems in international settling they would have occured by now. If the daily's are correct I cannot fathom how the month-end will not be correct.

-- futureshock (gray@matter.com), January 17, 2000.

Hang on a while longer with an eye to prudent use of preps and bearish investing--my opinion. But then I guessed wrong regarding Y2K.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 17, 2000.

cuddluppy,

ok you smart guys in the area of economics. what are the primary indicators for which we should be looking that will indicate the coming of the "fall"????

uh, how 'bout a line of men outside your front door, hands extended, and signs saying, "Will work for Food?" Too late?

-- (4@5.6), January 17, 2000.

Bob Prechter, in At the Crest of the Tidal Wave, quotes market historian John Brooks about the 1929-33 experience:

[It] came with a kind of surrealistic slowness...so gradually that, on the one hand, it was possible to live through a good part of it without realizing that it was happening, and, on the other hand it was possible to believe one had experienced and survived it, when in fact it had no moree than just begun

Prechter notes, "Remember also that major market collapses are rarely experienced as unmistakable unidirectional trends. Although years after the fact, historians will detachedly describe the violence and speed of a crash, financial implosions often feel as if they are occurring in slow motion as they happen. It is the old story that if you place a frog in a pot of cool water and heat it slowly, he won't notice he is being cooked until it is too late."

Because the market does not move in a unidirectional trend, look at what did happen in 1929-33:

The market actually topped in September, at Dow 382

It dropped to about 340 by October 1....this was only a drop of 11%

It then "crashed" to 320 by October 3

It "recovered" to 352 by the 11th of October. This was the first countercycle bounce.

But, then, before the middle of November it had dropped to 220 (a drop of 43%, "recovered" to 275.......and then rolled over to 198 (a total loss of about 50%. The market floated around for a while, then declined again in 1937, going from a high of about 190 to a low of about 100. By this time it had lost 75% of it's value.

We have had several drops of about 10% in the past few years. Each time, the media has told us this was a "buying opportunity." Each time they were right. Anyone who bought the dips from 1995 through 1999 would have made a bundle. Sometime we will have another 10% drop, individual investors will buy the dip, and the big boys will head for the sidelines, leaving a lot of people with no retirement money, and more than one person bankrupt. Echhhhhh!!!!!

-- (rocky@no.spam), January 17, 2000.

this should get it.

-- (rocky@no.spam), January 17, 2000.

I know this is preaching to the choir, but - "Try to pay off all debts before investing in gold."
Credit is Not Capital. If you expect hyperinflation, and don't mind contributing to the collapse, buy all the physical Gold you can on credit.
Then, if you guessed right, you can either pay the debt with "cheaper" dollars, or default with everyone else when the cards come tumbling down.

Now, if you do have Investment capital, then Gold can be a very good option at this time.

If you Really expect a collapse then think about this:
$20 will buy 30 to 40 cans of tuna -or- 15 to 20 live chicks.
The tuna will feed you for less than a month, then it is gone.
The chicks will also feed you for a month, if you wait for 4 to 5 months and slaughter them.
If you continue raising them to maturity, they can supply eggs and fresh meat continually.

If you are not in a location that you can raise your own small livestock, then you can Never be ready for an economic collapse.
(unless you have a great deal of Gold...)

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 17, 2000.

Hey Futureshock,

Just wondering...what kind of risks would you associate with owning gold? I know what price I paid for it. I know that I don't sell it unless the selling price is equal to or more than my purchase price.

I keep it in a heavy safe. I'm not likely to lose it or have it stolen. Even if there's a fire, and it melts the gold to a puddle in the bottom of the safe, it's still gold and still worth every cent I paid for it.

Just curious...

-- Powder (Powder47keg@aol.com), January 17, 2000.

Yeah, that's right. If the end times are upon us, be sure to do what you can to protect YOUR OWN ASS - and to hell with your fellow men. That's the Christian spirit! Whatever happened to that nuclear war Nostradamus predicted for 1999? Frank, you've watched too many episodes of "Millenium".

-- Dave Polich (wavedave@earthlink.net), January 17, 2000.

I won't get Flamed for this, I'll be fried to a crisp, but I keep reading about gold, gold, gold, gold, and then there's more gold.

Now if this nation is taken over by a foreign power, and I have the opportunity to buy my way out, say up to Canada, then I can bribe whomever to let me go.

This has been done, and from what I gather is still going on in some areas of this world.

That's all well and good. But in the scheme of things for day-to-day living, just getting along, what in the hell will I do with a gold coin (no obscene suggestions) for food, water, or any other necessity? I have one gold coin worth some few hundred dollars, I turn this over for a gallon of gasoline? A loaf of bread? A can of beans? This wouldn't be much of a return on my investment.

For those of us in a rural area, I might as well use the gold coin for a level to put under one table leg that is shorter than the others.

For me, and many others like me, gold does not nor would not have any practical value. Unless someone has a recipe for cooking a gold coin into soup. It's worthless to me. Has anyone read about Germany in the late 30's just prior to Hitler taking over? It took a wheelbarrow full of money for a loaf of bread. Ok, flame away.

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), January 17, 2000.

Attention! Attention! The rules have changed. What was true yesterday, is not true today. Pick a reality, any reality. You wanna depression, that's down the hall, third room on your left. Peace and prosperity is the first on your right. What ever turns you on.

-- Michael (m@m.m), January 17, 2000.

I liked the chicken idea. We live in the mountains. If it gets really bad then we can always have eggs or chicken. And I bet if people get realy hungry they will trade almost anything for some eggs to eat. But this is just my opinion.

-- Julie (jules@fridgid.net), January 18, 2000.

Yesterday I asked if this was a bad time to put money back into a bank or credit union. I'm not just asking with regard to y2k, but with regard to some of the statements I've read here-- including "economic collapse is coming."

I don't pretend to understand economics or the stock market or investment strategies. And if I mentioned the dollar amount I have on hand, some of you would probably laugh. For some, it may be what you would consider to be "walking around money."

I'm not really worried about the interest I'm 'losing' by not having it in the bank-- that's practically zero. I'm more worried about fire or theft. Because while it really isn't much in some eyes, it is a lot to me. I can't afford to lose it. Either in a bank because of an economic collapse, or in my direct holding due to fire or theft.

-- (notmyusualhandle@here.now), January 18, 2000.

The same people preaching "economic collapse" were preaching Y2K chaos. Should you really be listening to them?

BTW, gold was up a whole 0.1% last year.

-- Freethinkr (ima@nut.com), January 18, 2000.

I agree with Freethinkr. The US Economy has never truly collapsed. We have had depressions, recessions, hyper-inflation and now a long boom, but since the civil war, we have been able to conduct transactions with good old US currency, not precious medals. Gold is a good hedge against inflation, but it is especially bad to have most of your net worth in metals during a good economy. It's all about how risk averse you are. I think that a balanced portfolio, along with adequate cash reserves in a credit union or savings institutions is fine.

Frank, here, appears very risk averse. Others on this forum were also betting that Y2K would prepend an economic collapse. This forum, with Y2K now several weeks past, is now focused on the so- called bubble economy, where we are overdue for a recession, maybe depression. They could be right. Most of the doomers, were off-base with Y2K prediction, so any advice you get here should be taken with a pessimistic grain of salt. Diversity and dollar cost averaging...and maybe a can of tuna or two just to hedge you bets.

-- (123@hotmail.com), January 18, 2000.