Yardeni Turns Super Bull

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

What's new on Dr. Ed's EcoNet:

(Yardeni writing) Here are my five themes for this year and the decade ahead:

1) The bull market should broaden as Old Economy companies morph into the New Economy, and as valuations of the two converge.

2) Real GDP has the potential to grow at a 4% per year trend rate, a full percentage point higher than in the past.

3) The secular rebound in productivity should continue with average annual growth of 2.5%, up from 1.8% during the 1990s.

4) Inflation should fall closer to zero. Some deflation is possible as the Internet increases competition.

5) The above apply not only to the US, but also to all competitive economies around the world.

_________________

Of course, Dr. Ed is wrong, has been wrong all year, and will not only be wrong for all of 2000, but may prove to be the market's 'sacrificial bear'.

-- Me (me@me.me), January 15, 2000

Answers

Yardeni has been extremely bullish for quite some time. Until recently, however, he expected a Y2k recession to temporarily interrupt the bullish scenario for a couple of quarters. An economist in a big brokerage/banking firm must be bullish to keep his job. A big part of his job is speaking at seminars, etc., and bringing in new business. It is obvious that he was told to get with the program in early Jan. He originally said he would wait until the end of Jan. to reevaluate his short term forecast, but then he quickly backed down and said Y2k was over.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), January 15, 2000.

I'm still concerned that his Y2k prediction of a Dow at 12,000, then into it's Y2K crash may be ready to prove out. I wonder how he would react if that one comes true after he's recanted?

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 15, 2000.


Me thinks Dr. Ed has learned that it's better to be wrong in a crowd and employed than it is to piss upstream.

Myself, I prefer to take my lumps but stick to my opinions. I was wrong about Y2K's impact and I wouldn't change a thing.

If Ed didn't change his tune, they'd fire him. They may yet fire him. Wall Street is unfortunately all about appearances these days. Substance has gone the way of valuation and conservatism.

I for one thank Ed for sounding all the alarms he did and putting his balls on the line. Unfortunately, they will be in a tight vise from hear on out.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 15, 2000.


I still like Wild Weasel's prediction that Bill Clinton was going to go out in a drunken or cocaine induced stupor, lynched by the masses because he did not 'fix' y2k.

-- Memories (all@we.have), January 15, 2000.

Let's face it gordie, every time you ever opened your mouth on this forum, about anything, you were wrong. Why don't you get out of your trailer and go back to the 7-11. Maybe they'll give you your job back...

-- Orp (thepollies@were.right), January 15, 2000.


me:

Yardeni is a smart man. He knows that his past predictions have generated angst. Now he is more conservative.

However, Wall Street is currently going beserk with euphoric spasms. There is no way Greenspan can control this bullish stampede. No way. It's out of control and will soon race off the cliff into mayhem!

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 15, 2000.


And if the herd goes over the cliff, the comment which Memories refers to may yet prove a valid observation.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 15, 2000.


me:

How HIGH can this market go? If we aren't witnessing the biggest stock blow off in history, then I'm extinct.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 16, 2000.


Dinosaur:

We'll see you in about 4 million years -- as a fossil of an extinct species to be studied. "Chickenlittlus Maximus"

-- Thomas Redder (t_redder@hotmail.com), January 17, 2000.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ