OT-RE: Thomas Redder's "So - What bubble is bursting???"

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I found Thomas Redder's original post on Jan 04,


He wrote, "I picked up $5K in Whitman-Hart as well as two other stocks right before the NASDAQ closed.... I'm gonna make a *KILLING* over the next week.

It's a good thing that the Y2Krackpots can't smell a "BUYING OPPORTUNITY"!!!!!!!!!!! Whoooo-Hooo!!!!!!"

Today he posted


the following[my numbering of false statements are inserted in his text]:

A little over a week ago, I posted here that not only did I believe that the recent market drop was a temporary dip--ie: a "buying opportunity" -- I actually listed a stock or two that I was going to buy[#1 he had already bought the stocks at the time of his first post].

Now it has been approximately 10 days since my boastful post __ and guess what???? The four[#2 three] stocks I purchased have all gone up!

Whitman-Hart (WHIT Nasdaq) has gone up over $6[#3 WHIT low on Jan 04= $47, WHIT high as of second post= $52, $5 maximum]-- the 500[#4 no more than 106]shares I purchased netted me a profit of over $2800[#5 no more than $530]after fees, etc... The total gain from all four[again #2 above] stocks is a little over $4K -- not too bad for 10 days work.

I have decided to donate nearly all $4000 to a local agency that is providing financial assistance for things like Mortgage and Auto Loan payments to individuals who can't keep up. I specifically asked them to give help out to those silly people who spent their Mortgage and Car payments on Y2K preps *first*.... that way I could at least help out the less fortunate fools who blew their cash after listening to the rediculous[sic] blathering from doomers.

Thanks to all of you for believing in me -- NOT!

[end post]

I would take EVERYTHING that Mr. Redder posts from this point forward with a very large grain of salt, as he seems to have a problem with what the FACTS are.

-- J (Y2J@home.com), January 14, 2000




Thursday January 13, 11:07 pm Eastern Time

Greenspan Warns About Imbalances

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Warns That Growing Imbalances Could Derail the Economic Expansion


AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Americans, enjoying the most prosperous times in a generation, have fueled a remarkable economic boom, but there are dangers that growing imbalances could derail the economic expansion, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday.

Speaking to the Economic Club of New York, Greenspan expressed an upbeat assessment of the economy's current performance, noting that next month it will become the longest expansion in U.S. history, surpassing the 106 months of uninterrupted growth in the 1960s.

``There can be little argument that the American economy as it stands at the beginning of a new century has never exhibited so remarkable a prosperity for at least the majority of its citizens,'' Greenspan said in the speech, copies of which were released in Washington.

However, Greenspan also repeated worries he has voiced before that the Federal Reserve must be alert to the growing imbalances between continued strong consumer demand, bolstered by Americans' soaring stock portfolios, and the dwindling supply of available workers, given that unemployment is now at a 30-year low.

In addition to concerns about rising inflation pressures, Greenspan also repeated concerns he has expressed in the past that the huge runup in stock prices could without warning reverse itself.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times in the past six months in an effort to slow the economy and relieve pressures on tight labor markets before they trigger inflationary wage demands.

While it is widely expected that the Fed will raise rates when they meet again on Feb. 1-2, Greenspan did not specifically address that issue, saying only that the central bank is always forced to make interest-rate decisions based on incomplete evidence of where the economy is headed.

``Regrettably, we at the Federal Reserve do not have the luxury of awaiting a better set of insights into this process,'' Greenspan said in the speech. ``Indeed, our goal, in responding to the complexity of current economic forces, is to extend the expansion by containing its imbalances.''

David Jones, an economist at Aubrey G. Lanston & Co. who was in the audience for Greenspan's speech, said the Fed chairman left little doubt that the central bank will raise rates again at the February meeting.

``Greenspan continues to be worried that consumer spending and demand are greater than potential supply and that is exerting additional pressures on the labor market,'' Jones said.

During the question-and-answer session following his speech, Greenspan said that before the Feb. 1-2 meeting the central bank would release guidelines to help the public and financial markets better interpret its new policy of announcing changes in its policy directives, which are intended to signal future Fed moves.

In all of his comments, Greenspan was careful to balance his worries about the future with expressions that some fundamentally beneficial changes are occurring in the economy that have given a strong boost to U.S. productivity.

Greenspan said that when economists look back at the current period a decade from now, they may well conclude ``at the turn of the millennium, the American economy was experiencing a once-in-a-century acceleration of innovation which propelled forward productivity, output, corporate profits and stock prices at a pace not seen in generations, if ever.''

But Greenspan also said there could be an alternative view of the current period when viewed in a decade.

``Alternatively, that 2010 retrospective might well conclude that a good deal of what we are currently experiencing was just one of the many euphoric speculative bubbles that have dotted human history.''

That comment echoed Greenspan's famous worry, voiced in December 1996, that investors might be in the grip of ``irrational exuberance.'' At the time, the Dow Jones industrial average was trading around 6,400.

Despite worries expressed since that time by Greenspan about market valuations, the Dow closed on Thursday at a new record of 11,582.43.

In his Thursday speech, Greenspan said that the boom in stock prices, by bolstering consumer spending, has probably added around 1 percentage point annually to economic growth since 1996. The economy during this period has been growing at annual rates of around 4 percent.

-- (M@rket.matters), January 14, 2000.

Lessee, the man said "euphoric speculative bubble" and the street hardly batted an eye. What are they waiting for him to do? Pitch himself out the window screaming "SELLLLLLLLL!!!!!"? They have truly lost their minds.

-- Thinman (thinman38@hotmail.com), January 14, 2000.

Thomas Redder, A fool and his money, the kings creations.

-- Lenny (chmielecki@worldnet.att.net), January 14, 2000.

Good Job J!!

this Thom Reddar has a familar stench to him. I think we've been graced with his "omnipotence" before.

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), January 14, 2000.

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