So - What bubble is bursting??? : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

A little over a week ago, I posted here that not only did I believe that the recent market drop was a temporary dip -- ie: a "buying opportunity" -- I actually listed a stock or two that I was going to buy.

Now it has been approximately 10 days since my boastful post -- and guess what???? The four stocks I purchased have all gone up!

Whittman-Hart (WHIT Nasdaq) has gone up over $6 -- the 500 shares I purchased netted me a profit of over $2,800 after fees, etc... The total gain from all four stocks is a little over $4K -- not too bad for 10 days work.

I have decided to donate nearly all $4,000 to a local agency that is providing financial assistance for things like Mortgage and Auto Loan payments to individuals who can't keep up. I specifically asked them to give help out to those silly people who spent their Mortgage and Car payments on Y2K preps *first*.... that way I could at least help out the less fortunate fools who blew their cash after listening to the rediculous blathering from doomers.

Thanks to all of you for believing in me -- NOT!

-- Thomas Redder (, January 14, 2000


"Peace and safety"

-- Y2Kook (, January 14, 2000.


"The longest bull market in history" is a term that gets used a lot these days. Since 1990, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen some 8,000 points, from around 2,700 in January 1990 to nearly 11,000 today.....

-- (Up@and.down), January 14, 2000.

Thomas, glad to hear you did well riding the bubble. Sounds like you profit-took, good move IMHO.

-- Think It (Through@Pollies.Duh), January 14, 2000.

How 'nice' of you....Perhaps you can donate your 'EGO' to science? And your arrogance to No Self Worth annonymous?

-- consumer (, January 14, 2000.

As a bubble is blown larger, is it more or less likely to pop?

-- Me (, January 14, 2000.

I have heard since 1994 that this market would take a horrible downturn -- it can't continue to grow -- it will take me down if I continued to invest -- blah blah blah.

I now have enough money OUT of the market to provide for my family and myself for the next 15 years -- including adjusting for inflation.

I have purchased land back that my father, grandfather(s) and my great grandfather sold decades ago.... I have a college fund setup for my four children that will likely provide for their education *including grad school* -- and my oldest child is only 10 years old.

All of this based on earnings in a market that "will take a terrible downturn soon".

At this point -- as I'm way past critical mass -- it doesn't matter if it turns down or not. I win. The doomers (both Stock Market 'Bears' and Y2Krackpots) were wrong.

-- Thomas Redder (, January 14, 2000.

Mr. Consumer -- I may be arrogant about my investments, but when I'm wrong, I say so.... and I've been wrong before on this board and others.

In this case, it is people like you who have no self worth and have latched onto fables and fairy tales (kinda like TimeBomb 2000) to give yourself something to believe in.

You should stop listening to those people who only have something to gain by keeping your attention. You should stop looking for something to belong to in order to "feel good about yourself".

Stop pissing and moaning -- stop trying to tear down other people to make yourself feel better -- and admit when you are wrong.

In this case, you are way beyond wrong -- but I don't really expect you to be adult enough to admit it.

-- Thomas Redder (, January 14, 2000.

There's an old saying, "In a bull market, everyone is a genius". Well, not everyone, but you get the point. What happens when there is a bear market?

-- Steve Heller (, January 14, 2000.

When I'm wrong, I DO admitt it. However, I DO NOT trust in wealth for my needs. There once was a man who used the same statements you did, Bought land, college funds, etc....he is found in the New Testament, only One problem there Thomas, HE DIED before he could spend it!!!!! As for y2k, I prepared for myself and my family. If you read another post, you shall find out that my water prep has paid off as living in Cleveland we had a MAJOR water main break, but I wouldnt expect you to understand, as you first post proved how arrogant and self minded you really are. Do you expect anyone to believe you actually 'donated' your money to others? How about the way you spoke of them? Less fortunate fools????? who blew their cash? You sir should be ashamed of yourself.....As for me, I have much to be thankful for. Not to BOAST of....

-- consumer (, January 14, 2000.

------PS thats MRS. CONSUMER to you pal.

-- consumer (, January 14, 2000.

Thomas, your one of the reasons that this stock market has reached the extremes it has. You will also be one of the reasons that an eventual PANIC ensues.

Not even Alan Greenspan can talk this market down. It will take action not words. Oil prices along with commodity prices are again rising today. Not that I would expect you to understand the consequences.


-- Ray (, January 14, 2000.

Up and Down:

I followed your link and read the information about the book. Too bad it seems to be such a dog of a read -- seems like the author can't seem to get his head out of his behind -- and sounds like they needed a "good" editor... LOL!

"Important, But Poorly Written Book .... The concepts are important. However, the author needed a good editor to help edit. He periodically became lost in his own moralizing"

"On the negative side, the author sounds too 'opinionated' sometimes, as when he implies that the recent rebirth of classic economic thought and monetarism serve merely as intellectual "window-dressing" for a wave of perverse speculation. Were it not for this minor fault, I would certainly rate it a 5-star book."

-- Thomas Redder (, January 14, 2000.

Its really easy to come here and tell us all what you did after the fact.

I remember your post and remember the nasdaq went down a couple hundred more points after you were telling us all to get back in.

As far as this donating to charity prove it.

As for me I'd rather take my seculative money to Churchill Downs. Its more fun than daytrading.

-- Johnny (, January 14, 2000.

Thomas Redder,

Your boasting of wealth is vain, arrogant nonsense.

Your accusing doomers of "rediculous blathering" is further nonsense, punctuated by a lack of spelling that shows your ignorance.

Your ad hominum attacks contribute further to a picture of a very sick individual.


-- (4@5.6), January 14, 2000.

Not too surprisingly, the Loonies here have begun attacking my personal integrity instead of admitting they were wrong. {!SHOCK!}

To answer the plethora of charges:

- Yes I really did donate the $4K.

- Yes I really did specify that if anyone was asking for assistance and had spent considerable sums of money prepping for the "TimeBomb2000", they should get the help first.

- Yes I understand the implications of the increase in some commodities prices, and have seen the same indicators rising and lowering over the past 6 years many times. Each time correlates to a buying opportunity and each time I take advantage of it.

- Buying stocks, holding them for 10 days then selling them can hardly be called daytrading. (Pretty weak - try again, Johnny)

- If you truly remember my post (Johnny again) then you would remember that it was on the day that the NASDAQ dropped so much - and it was AFTER the market closed. I didn't encourage anyone else to join me, I merely stated what I was going to do and specified one of the stocks I was going to buy.... duh.

- "Not even Alan Greenspan can talk this market down" -- what a silly comment. If Alan Greenspan made a serious attempt to bring down the market two things would happen INSTANTLY: 1) The market would tank and 2) He would be removed from his position. Get a clue - Alan Greenspan's job is to keep the economy moving, not kill it.

- Sorry MRS. Consumer -- crass assumption that you were male on my part and I apologize. (this is what it looks like when someone admits to being wrong. don't think most of you have ever seen it or experienced it so I thought I'd set a good example)

- Mrs. Consumer - There is a dramatic difference between what I have done and what the poor lost soul in that bible story. He expected to be able to enjoy his money. I do not. I am fully aware that my days are numbered and you will note that I have not said anything here about buying material belongings. Nearly all of my investment profits have gone into accounts for my kids, paying off debt, charitable donations and growing my consulting practice. I live in a house that is worth less than $125K - in a college town in Central Indiana. I drive a 1992 Nissan Sentra with over 200K miles on it. My wife drives a 1993 Mercury Villager -- no nice cars, very little amenities. I pay for my grandmother's nursing home expenses, and I bought a motor home for my mother and father -- they want to retire to the "mobile life". You shouldn't accuse people of living a non- christian life style when you know nothing about them. There was another bible story about "throwing the first stone", but I suppose you wouldn't see the connection here...... hmmm....

- Ray - I only WISH that I, as an individual, could have any effect on the stock market whatsoever. Your assertion that I am "one of the reasons that this stock market has reached the extremes it has." and that I "will also be one of the reasons that an eventual PANIC ensues" is rediculous and uneducated. Get a clue.

I'm sure there will be more attacks - I'm not going to respond.

This thread was intended as an update since I promised last week to tell you all what happened... There were so many gloom/doomers telling me that I was stupid and that I was indeed not buying a "dip" but was buying into the beginning of a crash that I felt the need to rub their nose in it a little -- after all, they felt they were rubbing my nose in my "mistake" last week, it's only fair that I get a little turn around, don't you think?

I guess not. You folks will be going to your graves clinging to TEOTWAWKI scenarios.....

-- Thomas Redder (, January 14, 2000.

Thursday January 13, 11:07 pm Eastern Time

Greenspan Warns About Imbalances

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Warns That Growing Imbalances Could Derail the Economic Expansion


AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Americans, enjoying the most prosperous times in a generation, have fueled a remarkable economic boom, but there are dangers that growing imbalances could derail the economic expansion, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday.

Speaking to the Economic Club of New York, Greenspan expressed an upbeat assessment of the economy's current performance, noting that next month it will become the longest expansion in U.S. history, surpassing the 106 months of uninterrupted growth in the 1960s.

``There can be little argument that the American economy as it stands at the beginning of a new century has never exhibited so remarkable a prosperity for at least the majority of its citizens,'' Greenspan said in the speech, copies of which were released in Washington.

However, Greenspan also repeated worries he has voiced before that the Federal Reserve must be alert to the growing imbalances between continued strong consumer demand, bolstered by Americans' soaring stock portfolios, and the dwindling supply of available workers, given that unemployment is now at a 30-year low.

In addition to concerns about rising inflation pressures, Greenspan also repeated concerns he has expressed in the past that the huge runup in stock prices could without warning reverse itself.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times in the past six months in an effort to slow the economy and relieve pressures on tight labor markets before they trigger inflationary wage demands.

While it is widely expected that the Fed will raise rates when they meet again on Feb. 1-2, Greenspan did not specifically address that issue, saying only that the central bank is always forced to make interest-rate decisions based on incomplete evidence of where the economy is headed.

``Regrettably, we at the Federal Reserve do not have the luxury of awaiting a better set of insights into this process,'' Greenspan said in the speech. ``Indeed, our goal, in responding to the complexity of current economic forces, is to extend the expansion by containing its imbalances.''

David Jones, an economist at Aubrey G. Lanston & Co. who was in the audience for Greenspan's speech, said the Fed chairman left little doubt that the central bank will raise rates again at the February meeting.

``Greenspan continues to be worried that consumer spending and demand are greater than potential supply and that is exerting additional pressures on the labor market,'' Jones said.

During the question-and-answer session following his speech, Greenspan said that before the Feb. 1-2 meeting the central bank would release guidelines to help the public and financial markets better interpret its new policy of announcing changes in its policy directives, which are intended to signal future Fed moves.

In all of his comments, Greenspan was careful to balance his worries about the future with expressions that some fundamentally beneficial changes are occurring in the economy that have given a strong boost to U.S. productivity.

Greenspan said that when economists look back at the current period a decade from now, they may well conclude ``at the turn of the millennium, the American economy was experiencing a once-in-a-century acceleration of innovation which propelled forward productivity, output, corporate profits and stock prices at a pace not seen in generations, if ever.''

But Greenspan also said there could be an alternative view of the current period when viewed in a decade.

``Alternatively, that 2010 retrospective might well conclude that a good deal of what we are currently experiencing was just one of the many euphoric speculative bubbles that have dotted human history.''

That comment echoed Greenspan's famous worry, voiced in December 1996, that investors might be in the grip of ``irrational exuberance.'' At the time, the Dow Jones industrial average was trading around 6,400.

Despite worries expressed since that time by Greenspan about market valuations, the Dow closed on Thursday at a new record of 11,582.43.

In his Thursday speech, Greenspan said that the boom in stock prices, by bolstering consumer spending, has probably added around 1 percentage point annually to economic growth since 1996. The economy during this period has been growing at annual rates of around 4 percent.

-- News (, January 14, 2000.

Bulls make money, bears make money...but pigs eventually get slaughtered.

-- Tim (, January 14, 2000.


'IF' you have done all you say you have done for you mom, dad, grandmom, etc, great....I'm glad for you. Let me clear up WHAT started this conflict....How about your arrogance????? (Although you vowed to not respond here anymore.) I do admitt when I am wrong and yes, you did catch me 'throwing the first stone' for that, I do apologize. However, I cant BELIEVE for one second you 'donated' money anywhere and IF you did,,,WHY? Certainly with your attitude about it, you should not of donated anything..There are sincere folks with needs, are they also 'unfortunate fools' who spent their's? Who threw the first stone? Your attitude did sir. I cant stand people like you who presume they have done 'fools' a service by 'donating'. Quite frankly I do NOT believe you. Why dont YOU apologize for being so arrogant and puffed up? Since you attacked me for my not admitting my fault, what about yours? You need a serious mirror guy.And you wonder why the flames? Go back and REALLY read your FIRST post.

-- consumer (, January 14, 2000.

10 days is closer to daytrading than investing. It is just a little longer gamble.

You're really full of yourself

Reading your last post its full of I did this or I do that or I didn't buy this or I,I, I, I,....

Too bad your family doesn't think you are so great or else they would be giving you the PRAISE you think you so rightly deserve.

Thats the only reason you have posted this crap--- To proclaim how great you are.

-- Johnny (, January 14, 2000.

Uh, folks?

No matter how you slice it or how many ad hominem arguments you want to make, Mr. Redder has been successful in this market. If we accept this statements, he has judged the market's overall behavior and has leveraged it correctly. He has used the proceeds to invest in his family's future.

Why argue with completely legal, ethical results? If you've seen many of my posts, you know that I am no fan of the current trends, but I do not castigate those who are taking the risks and using judgement and skill to increase the value of their holdings. I reserve my ire and criticism for those who have allowed this situation to arise, and who continue to do so.

For example, Mr. Redder did not report Intel's earnings, nor is he one of the myriad analysts who are "over the moon" about their numbers, ignoring the fast ramadoola of Intel's "discretionary reporting" of their amortization costs and investment income. Anyone think that a number of 62 cents per share would have done Intel as much good as that 69? Anyone believe that investment income should be blended with operational income? Anyone really care? Apparently not.

I choose not to participate in this high-risk game, which is solely my choice and responsiblity. Others do choose to play, and those who succeed within the rules have my admiration. My concern is for the "widows and orphans" who are currently being encouraged by relatives and friends to take their savings and buy, say, QCOM. Savings are not risk capital and techs are not for the neophyte. It is those irresponsible behaviors that I get fired up about.

Mr. Redder runs his own show and is obviously fully cognizant of the risks. If he succeeds, more power to his elbow.

-- DeeEmBee (, January 14, 2000.

Omigod, I think I'm channeling Flint, or perhaps Ken Decker. Help! :-}

-- DeeEmBee (, January 14, 2000.

The fullness of time will reveal this market for the Ponzi scheme that it is. It would take an approximate 85% correction for the Nasdaq to return to historical P/E ratios. This boom has been fueled by an expanding monetary base, not profits. Is it good that some now enjoy short-term prosperity, if that prosperity is ultimately consuming our future economic output? Perhaps we should ask the Japanese...

-- Applebutter (, January 14, 2000.

Mr. Redder is taking some liberties with the truth, based on what he said before. I do not have that post, but maybe someone could reprint it here.
I do remember that he said he bought Whitman-Hart near the end of the day. He said 5k, not 500 shares, and that he was going to make a killing. I remember thinking, how could he make a killing on $5000 worth of a stock that hit a low of $47 on Jan 04. That is only a little over 100 shares. I did not post a response, because my motives were not right. Even now, my motives may be clouded by Mr. Redder's apparent arrogance, but the truth is the truth.
Maybe he meant 5000 shares in the previous post, but his current post obviously says 500 shares. Lastly, from its low of $47 on Jan 04 to its high of $52 today is only a $5 difference, not the $6 that Mr. Redder claimed.

-- J (, January 14, 2000.

What a post, Thomas!

So you actually sold those shares? Why would you if they continue to go up?

Or you didn't sell them? Why would you then donate profits which may disapppear?

You are A-OK in the bragging department, but stocks? Man...

-- W (, January 14, 2000.

Why did TR bail out of his Whitman Hart stock if it was still going up? Maybe he can tell the difference between a "bull market" and a "Bullsh*t market". We went beyond a bull market a long time ago.


-- Wildweasel (, January 14, 2000.

Yes,a lot of people have made a lot of money, thats good.

But it pales in comparison with the ampount of people who will be broke when the bubbe bursts. Since it always taskes more and more people (generally) to support the new millionares, like any pyramid scheme, the vast majority get hurt.

-- Jon Johnson (, January 14, 2000.

Think on this.

The more unrealistically, maniacally high the markets goes the greater


The last time gold soared it hit $850, back in the early eighties.

Adjusting for inflation, and the 1929+ type crash that will occur, wher do you think all the DELLionaires and .com brats will try and stash their MOOLA???

No, y2k Pro, not Beanie Babies - A for effort though...


-- Andy (, January 14, 2000.

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