Here in Central Arizona, temperatures are runnung 15 degrees above normal, and have for the last six months. For the first time ever, we have gone 3 months with no precipitation in what is normally our rainy season.

Yesterday afternoon while on a mission to deliver an emergency supply of lemons to a local bar, the television indicated that, ...surprise, surprise...it was Snowing in Minnesota!!!, and that it had been almost a year (361 days) since snow had fallen in Boston.

My only slightly off topic request...could everyone post their water supply conditions around the country??? Are we faced with a developing DROUGHT of the kind we are used to see only in Ethioia or the Sudan??

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It ALL went away 14 days ago but it's ALL COMING BACK!!! .com), January 14, 2000

Answers

Very dry in the northern New Mexico area, too. Very little snow, which has made for a terrible season for the ski resorts -- but of more concern is the increased likelihood of forest fires in the coming summer if we continue to have a dry winter and spring. Could make for lousy rafting down the Rio Grande River also, but that we can cope with...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 14, 2000.

Drought is my concern too. This is serious folks. Never seen anything like this kind of weather in my lifetime. If not save previous water supplys, add some water tanks and or build concrete , gunnite tanks that will hold alot of extra water. This is when the victory garden will come into play.I think Y2k could pale in comparison to this issue

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), January 14, 2000.

La Nina (Short)

North American Drought History

-- Etta James (ej@umkc.edu), January 14, 2000.

Here in Kentucky we were in a drought situation for the summer and most of the fall. Since Halloween enough precipitation has fallen to bring us out of this state. I was odd though so many cities were in Water Emergencies.

K I love what you did with your handle!

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), January 14, 2000.

Oh, and a neat one for you, Feller, about our continent's decacyclical weather patterns, from 1989. Very interesting. They were worried about drought then, too.

-- Etta James (ej@umkc.edu), January 14, 2000.

Sorry, Feller, it didn't take. I'll try again.

-- Etta James (ej@umkc.edu), January 14, 2000.

The National Drought Mitigation Center:

http://enso.unl.edu/ndmc/index.html

All kinds of drought links.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), January 14, 2000.

Here in Kansas City we are 26 days without precipitation and counting.

EXIT 316

-- Exit 316 (exit316@kc-primary.net), January 14, 2000.

Was thinking of this subject just this week. I live in central Iowa, and we've had very little rain or snow since last summer. And also higher than normal temps. Was on a job last week where they dug down 3 foot, that dirt was just dry as dust all the way down. Very strange for this time of year in this part of the country. Also seen a lot of the farmers hauling water, common for dry conditions. Could very well be the start of a drought. But time will tell and the weather could change in a heart beat. My advice hang on to that food and save some for next year. Good luck to you and yours.

-- CJ (cornbelt@food.com), January 14, 2000.

316, that's not true, it totally snowed the weekend of New Years', and it rained last Friday.

-- Etta James (ej@umkc.edu), January 14, 2000.

USDA person told me the water table for the country is over a foot low. She was very concerned about the drought versus Y2K.

-- tt (cuddluppy@aol.com), January 14, 2000.

Last year we had flooding and so much rain that we bought steers to eat down the grass which was so lush in spring we realised we would have a fire hazard in the fall. This year we have on the ground maybe 2 inches of snow when we should have a foot of the white stuff and temps way above normal. Farmers here are complaining already about fire in spring and in Calgary (right in the city) 2 weeks ago, they were fighting grass fires where people had thrown cig. butts out not thinking anything would catch.

Four years ago we had grass fire which ate up thousands of acres just after Christmas in the ranchlands towards the Montana border and killed much livestock. In the 1970's we would see huge black clouds of dust from the hot westerly (chinook) winds blowing in spring and summer and the tons of dirt which moved off to Saskatchewan reminded my husband of stories his dad told of the Dirty Thirties, when the whole family had to come to Alberta to get work until they could move back to the farm in Sask.

It is always a great thing to be prepared with water - I really want a pond - a slough, rhymes with "you" - for water for animals if we have them again, so whatever the weather chucks at you, you can handle it.

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), January 14, 2000.

There has been little precipitation here (far northern CA) since last spring, but there was a good left-over snowpack from last winter to sustain the rivers and springs.

We are currently in the midst of a small rain on snow event. Luckily, the snowpack is quite recent at this elevation and it is not anywhere as bad as the winter of 96-97. Rain and snow in the forecast continually through next week. Looks like we are trying to get our normal snowpack all at once. It is welcome, but can be dangerous unless the snowpack at higher elevations stays in tact till spring.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), January 14, 2000.

Under 18" of snow in NE Oregon. We had a very dry fall.

-- morgan (bitbybit@eoni.com), January 14, 2000.

NW Oregon. Pouring as usual, 4 or 5 striaght days if you count the snowfall. Endless supplies. Don't go out without your rubbers.

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.tree), January 14, 2000.

Southern Calif., dry, dry, dry. Not even the seasonal rain/snow during Nov. Dec. or Jan. Few drops in sight at the moment, but nothing to speak of. And, there's nothing in the immediate forecast.

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), January 14, 2000.

We had a very dry fall in southern NH with not a lot of rain till 6" snow yesterday. strangely, the water levels don't seem low. It seems when it did rain, it really slammed in...we've been having very strong winds. great for my windmill!

-- Suzan (suzan@monad.net), January 14, 2000.

Most of Texas experienced a severe drought in 1999. Here is a quote from the Houston Chronicle from last week about Houston's rain amounts:

"Weather experts said 1999 was Houston's fourth-driest year since records were first kept in 1893. The city's 28.1 inches of rain last year were just 60 percent of the average 46.7 inches recorded annually at Bush Intercontinental Airport."

AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL: 46.7 inches

1999 TOTAL RAINFALL: 28.1 inches

Why it's so dry here in Texas that the rattlers have started bittin' lawyers again...

Years ago they quit...professional courtesy of course.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), January 14, 2000.

Northern Minnesota, near Canadian border, has had way above normal temperatures all "winter" long. Usually we have some snow by Halloween but this year we barely got any before Christmas.(The only times we have gotten snow have been following massive contrail spraying. If you don't believe in contrails, I don't care. I have seen planes criss-crossing right over my house and have read about weather modification by planes in a late 70's Reader's Digest) Also it's not uncommon to have thirty below zero weather for weeks on end, but we have had temps right around the freezing point for most of the year. That's a possible spread of about sixty degrees. So I'd say there is a definite possibility of a severe drought. We only have about three inches of snow right now and it is about 20 degrees out. Usually pounding through big drifts this time of year.

-- Worried One (bustina420@hotmail.com), January 14, 2000.

Also in Texas. Speaking of Biblical drought, my bro.-in-law grows hay in the country nearby and he's said that the hay growing seasons have totally reversed. Seasons have changed people. We have had maybe ten days so far that got below 68 degrees. All this in addition to no rain. Ranchers and farmers out here cannot make it. We had news specials throughout the growing season last year about how bad it was. Anyhow, the point is, we will prob'ly have enough to eat, BUT, we will not have the "all things, all seasons" selection of fresh produce we now have, not to mention higher food prices.

-- Mia (jnmpow@flash.net), January 14, 2000.

In Utah the snow in the mountains is at 125% of normal! Plenty of water this summer! Mormons are being favored by the Man upstairs!

-- ... (...@..com), January 14, 2000.

Caught a news segment about ranchers feeding their cattle carrots cause they were cheaper than bringing in hay from a distance.

Last year, from sometime in the spring till sometime in August (I think), we (North Texas) experienced 6 months solid without rain...zilch. I based my water storage on that... and fell short... there certainly wouldn't be any water for planting food if we had no water system and had to rely on rain water.

Wheat crops are threatened...a few struggling inches and nothing like the heighth the sprouts should be at this time in the season. There is also currently concern about the unusually warm temps which are causing the trees to bud...if it freezes now all of the fruit crops (here in N.Tex.)will be lost.

Water conservation will probably become a hot topic this summer...gone are the days of watering those guzzling lawn grasses and useless bushes...I have already pulled up most of the useless stuff and am planting drought resistant natural herbs that can for the most part be used for medicinal purposes. Some are actually food and seasoning...

They will look good...and they'll require less water. Now just gotta get rid of the St. Augustine .... last summer pretty much killed the front yard. Got to get my hubby to listen to Howard Garrett.

-- me (xxx@north.tex), January 14, 2000.

I live in Phoenix Az.There has indeed been a drought here,not close to the record of 161 days but still over 100.As for the temperature it is a very nice 67 degrees F.The weather channel saids that it is 78 degrees F.This is due to taking the temp at the airport which is usually about 10 degrees warmer than say central Phoenix where I'm at right now.

-- just a thought (tigerpm@netscape.com), January 14, 2000.

K. I had no idea you were short on water.

In Hampton Roads we were included with this summer's drought spanning up the Atlantic coast. It was only rectified by hurricane Floyd.

As irony would have it, conspiracy theorists say Floyd was only "brought" to us by .mil weather machine in response to a bio- terr attack on NY. Funny, I tracked Floyd from the mid-Atlantic, and understand hurricanes in my area originate in the Sahara. Anyway, here's some of the links to some of the goofy sites where they observe radar "rings" prior to some storms, and so suspect the AF has achieved it's proclaimed intention to control the weather by 2025:

http://www.toledolink.com/~flash/flashx.html

http://www.trufax.org/

http://members.aol.com/phikent/orbit/orbit.html

http://www.science.nasa.gov/

http://homestead.com/VIPSPACE/pacific.html

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 14, 2000.

North central Pennsylvania--Potter County is currently under a drought watch. All of Pennsylvania had a severly dry summer. In August the water tables were the lowest ever recorded----and there were two more dry months expected. Actually did not get significant precipitation until Dec. 15th in my region of PA although the south east got the hurricane water. We were under a drought warning (with fines for unapproved uses) until Dec. 15--now we just must be careful. Our gravity fed spring that we counted on for y2k was dry until mid December and intermittant until this week.

-- Pam (jpjgood@penn.com), January 14, 2000.

Here in Northern Indiana it's been a dry year. Last fall crops weren't hit too bad, but in many areas of the state the borrow pits (those ponds along the interstates) are still down from last summer 3- 4 feet. We've had a dry winter, little snow or rain. Our construction crews have worked all winter. If we don't have a good wet spring, things could get rough. Farmers say the drought that clobbered Ohio last year is moving west.

-- trafficjam (road@construction.ahead), January 14, 2000.

It is 80 degrees this afternoon in North Phoenix. I have been using the air conditioner in the car while making a delivery today.

Phoenix average rainfall is about 7 inches.

I bought 5 acres of desert land an hour south of town. Electricity will reach me in two months and then a well will go down. Water level is 260 feet @ $17. per foot for drilling .... will go another 90 feet so there will be plenty of standing water in the casing. Using an old 1500 gal water tank truck for now.....small town nearby (2 miles) sells water for 25 cents per 100 gallons. A 12 by 60 trailer now set on pilings and connected to a septic tank. Using a couple of 2500 watt generators but in a few days will set in a govt surplus 40,000 watt diesel generator. I thought I was ready for Y2k but not as ready as I will be for any future X.

I am mostly retired and will do a 50/50 between town and country. I don't need any hard times in order to appreciate fresh air, roadrunners, and rattlesnakes.

And BTW, I got 1/10th on an inch of rain at my house in north Phoenix, a week ago last Saturday.

As a kid growing up in okieland during the dust bowl 30's we survived cause we had 40 acres and a mule. How many of you market genius types are ready if the good times ever stop?

-- red (okie-redneck@webtv.net), January 14, 2000.

Northern Michigan, lower peninsula here and WAY behind in typical snow fall. All lakes including many small inland lakes way down in water level, 2 feet in some cases.

-- JB (noway@jose.com), January 14, 2000.

Pam,

Potter County...God's Country, if I remember the bumper stickers. Are there still more Deer than people there??

This drought must be difficult for the wildlife...as well as for the people. Good luck!
-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It ALL went away 14 days ago but it's ALL COMING BACK!! .com), January 14, 2000.

Pam,

Potter County...God's Country, if I remember the bumper stickers. Are there still more Deer than people there??

This drought must be difficult for the wildlife...as well as for the people. Good luck!

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It ALL went away 14 days ago but it's ALL COMING BACK!! .com), January 14, 2000.

South Louisiana... we finished 1999 ten inches below our normal rainfall here in the swamp...

-- Tee (teefleur@yahoo.com), January 14, 2000.

---long term drought here, north georgia. we get some rain, but overall is drought. Forget what "they" said was the efect on the water table, but do know anecdotally in this area that shallow wells that have worked for decades have run dry a few times. This is over-all a lush county/area-one of the reasons I picked it to live-but still concerned about water. the back up pond appears about two feet lower than at the height of the summer.

-- zog (zzoggy@yahoo.com), January 14, 2000.

Minnesota's light snowfalls are notoriously dry. We had three dry months in this area before we got snow, with two small rainfalls providing less than .5" of moisture. This snow, such as it is, (we got lots less out here in the boonies than they did in the Cities) will provide us with about .25". I have been worried about a drought here since last summer. It was also quite dry then. The nearby rivers were showing dry streambed over large areas before cold weather set in. Another thing that gives me concern is the fact that the late-year high temps (50 degrees after Thanksgiving, for instance) are the highest since 1930 (the beginning of the dust-bowl years.) This doesn't look good, folks...

-- Liz (lizpavek@hotmail.com), January 14, 2000.

In northern Illinois this is normally the coldest period with the most snowfall. Cross country skiing is usually good for about a month to six weeks.

So far, just a light dusting of less than an inch of snow. The lakes still have not frozen enough for skaters. The XC skiis are still in the garage.

Not a typical winter.

-- jschlau (jschlau@aol.com), January 14, 2000.

I don't know the technical big picture for this area, but my husband and sons are out shoveling snow off the roofs of the house and chicken coop. Northern Idaho checking in....

-- Mumsie (shezdremn@aol.com), January 14, 2000.

RETAIN ALL STORED WATERS! Use common sense, please, and don't dump unless your water is contaminated! If it is, then refill your storage containers with fresh water.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 14, 2000.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

Monterey County is talking about rationing for agriculture this year. During the last drought, which lasted for about four years, beginning when we first moved here in 1989, they only ever rationed people in some areas, never agriculture. Ironically, agriculture uses about 90% of the water. They must think it's going to be bad enough to come to that. Last time there was talk of the water table going down far enough to produce an effect known as "salt water intrusion," which would immediately ruin agriculture in all of the Salinas Valley for many years to come.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), January 14, 2000.

I miss the rain. I think it's rained 1 or 2 days in the past 6 months. Southern CA.

-- Cin (Cinlooo@aol.com), January 14, 2000.

Rainfall here in East Texas has been sporadic for three years now. The water table on our property has dropped to the point that the pine trees are stressing out and dying in droves. Our coldest night this winter has been 28 degrees, and today it was 75 outside, earlier this week it hit 84. I was discussing this with my mom and grandmother at Christmas, and both say the climate has changed drastically in this area from 40 to 50 years ago. I can tell it is vastly just in my 42 years, but talking to someone with a longer perspective really tells the tale. If we don't get a foot of rain quick there isn't any point in even trying to grow a garden this year.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), January 14, 2000.

There is a small farming community near us in Central Alberta called Trochu (sounds like snowshoe) and when God sent the great Flood and the earth was covered for many days, it's a well-known fact that Trochu got 3/10 inch :>}

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), January 15, 2000.

Here on the East side of the Big Island of Hawaii the rain has been relentless. No problem with water here. I'm sure we are well on our way to over 100 inches this year. This place makes Seatle look like Phoenix.

-- All Wet (Here@BigIsland.net), January 15, 2000.

SE AZ has had no rain since Sept/99. Normally we gain 3" during the period of Nov-Jan. Rainfall for all of 99 was 3" lower than normal.

NOAA monitor

http://enso.unl.edu/monitor/monitor.html

National Drought Summary -- January 11, 2000

The Central and Eastern States: The entire eastern half of the U.S. enjoyed another very warm week. Temperature departures varied anywhere from 6 to 15 degrees above normal across the region. Differences, however, were seen in the amount and distribution of precipitation that fell over the last seven days. A generous storm system brought 1-4 inches of rain to parts of SE Texas on a line northeastward up into Maine.

For the most part, core areas experiencing severe drought (D2) at this time weren't in the path of the systems producing the needed precipitation. Conditions have continued to deteriorate in central and western Nebraska where many areas have received less than 25% of normal precipitation since September 1 while also experiencing a very warm winter to this point. As a result, both the areas of first stage (D1) and severe (D2) drought have slowly pushed westward. The exceptions to this pattern's stranglehold is found in SE Texas where some relief came last week to the severe drought (D2) there but it is too early to tell if any significant recovery will occur just yet. Also, parts of Alabama, Georgia (severe droughtD2) and the Carolinas welcomed beneficial rains. Recovery continued in areas affected by first-stage drought (D1) as rains fell on the affected parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Tennessee, northern Kentucky, and southern Indiana and Ohio. As a result, the first stage drought (D1) has receded back off of the Ohio River. On the whole, average streamflow levels in the regions currently seeing dryness or drought remained quite low.

Outlook: Parts of this region are expecting their first significant snow event of the winter later this week as a relatively strong system pushes out into the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes, the Ohio River Valley, and into the Northeast. Incredibly, many spots in the Northeast haven't even seen snow yet this winter. The outlook for the next 6-10 days generally calls for warmer temperatures and little if any precipitation across most of this region. The continued dry and warm winter has once again elevated concerns of wild fires in Nebraska and surrounding states.

The Western States: Precipitation last week across the West was limited to the higher elevations and coastal regions of Oregon and Washington. The higher elevations in Idaho, Utah and Wyoming also saw light amounts of precipitation. Colorado continues to hope for a change in this pattern, which would lead to a boost in snowpack there. For most of the states in the West, it has been another very slow start to the snowpack season. Concerns have elevated recently from northern California eastward into Colorado, but there are still three months to go in the snowpack season and things can change in a hurry.

Abnormally dry conditions (D0) expanded to cover most of California, the western half of Nevada, southern Utah and most all of Arizona and New Mexico in what is being seen as a repeat so far to the winter of 1998-99. Unlike last winter however, the dryness has been felt further north into the Sierra Nevada and Cascade ranges, which saw a bumper snowpack season in many places just a year ago. Snowpack levels are generally well below 70% in most basins across the West, but fears have been tempered somewhat by above average reservoir storage in these same areas.

Outlook: A very strong jet stream has settled in across northern California, which will bring changes to the drier northern tier states here over the next week. A strong system was bringing plenty of rain, to the lower elevations, and snow to areas of the central Sierras and points both northward into Idaho and eastward into Wyoming as of 1/11 and 1/12. This pattern looks like it will hold over the next week or two as moisture from the Gulf of Alaska clashes with the warm air from the south bringing mild temperatures and plenty of moisture and snow to northern California, Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho, Oregon and much of Washington. Most of the Southwest and Four Corner states can expect to see no change in their luck as temperatures should remain well above normal and no precipitation is expected through late January.

Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico: D1 (first stage drought) conditions persist across many parts of the central and eastern Hawaii Islands. The only significant precipitation seen last week was isolated on the northern side of the Big Island (Hilo). Very little was seen across the rest of the island chain.

Parts of northern and western Alaska are also seeing low snowpacks at this time with the Koyukuk Basin showing just 56% of normal accumulated precipitation from October 1,1999 to present.

Outlook: Hawaii should experience gradual improvement over the next few months as seasonal rains continue. ------

-- jerry (sand888@eudoramail.com), January 15, 2000.

North Florida checking in. Extremely dry conditions for over two years. Forest fires rampant last two summers. Quite different from five years ago, when it rained every afternoon starting in June through August. Doesn't look good for this year, so far...

-- Weather (is@skewhere.com), January 16, 2000.

Found this fun site this afternoon - you can click on any part of the US and make temperature and precipitation graphs for years back (data over 110 years). You can do it by month, year, many years....quite a good overview and shows the averages also - actually some places look like they have been getting more precip. than they thought in the last couple of years. Sorry still not hotlinking.

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/spi/divplot1map.html

-- laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), January 16, 2000.