The Winter of Our Discontent (with apologies to my British buddy Bill) ) David Craig 2000

Beware the Ides of March

Well, 1JAN00 rolled around the globe and TV TEOTWAWKI (lights going out in Rome, Paris, London, New York etc.) didnt happen. Is this the end of TEOTWAWKI in our time? What of the dreaded Death of a Thousand Cuts as diseased databases, impacted imbedded chips and poisoned Pentiums decay and dissolve the infrastructure of our civilization out from under us?

To Be Or Not To Be Y2KOd

Could be or could not be, well have to wait and see. The consensus of opinion among anyone with an opinion seems to be that if the end of the world doesnt come by the end of the first fiscal quarter (which is the end of March) it aint commin. That omen will tell us if corrupted code has eaten our lunch, thus justifying our stockpiling of food and supplies. (Stockpiling: storing up readily available commodities. Hoarding: storing up scarce commodities.) I dont know bout yall, but if Jack the Y2Kgiant killer hasnt at least knocked a few of the corporate big boys to their knees as we enter the second quarter of the new millennium Im gunna start considering eating some of my canned ham and donating some of the Spam (Id been storing for hungry neighbors) to the local Bums-R-Us shelter. But wait! What of Bubble.com?

Aye, Theres the Rub

Shall we get on with our lives and risk being blindsided by a stock market crash or continue to bunker up? There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.... Has the tide turned? Is it turning now? Will it turn tomorrow? Which way? Will we one-day look back on today and think of this market as being at high tide or low tide? Shall survivalists jump in with both combat boots and risk becoming beached whales? Or clam up and await perfect proof one way or the other?

Once more into the breach?

I perceive a great pressure out there in investment land as those who pulled their cash out of the markets in anticipation of Y2K start itching to get back into the game. Yet a friend (who knows *much* more about the stock market than I ever will) tells me that markets are driven by two emotions: Fear and Greed. That huge dip in the first week of the new year probably put the fear back into a lot of investors. But how long before fear fades and greed raises its green eyed head?

Alas, poor Yorick! I knew his broker!

Hot stock tip: my friend tells me that conventional wisdom among investors holds that if the next big dip goes *lower* than the first one were in for a big bad bear market. Even in the best of times even the best of brokers cant predict the market with 100% accuracy, yet many experts say stocks are overpriced and its time for a correction. If Y2K doesnt clobber us at the end of the first quarter will a bear market eat us at the end of the second? Whats a doomer to do?

Tis not as deep as a well, nor wide as a church door, but twill do, twill do!

To tell the truth, itll matter little to my stomach whether its empty due to Y2K or a Depression caused by Burst@bubble.com. But the question is the timing. Will we hear the Crack of Doom at the end of March? Will the corporate giants begin to fall in the second quarter? Will the unkindest cut come after the elections in November?

What if Something Wicked This Way Comes?

If I evict that great lump under my mattress and convert my greenback bucks to digital dollars and play the markets today am I exposing my bare bodkin too soon? Will I be able to sleep upon my mattress knowing my lump has become a bump in one of Mr. Greenspans statistics? What of tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow? In my heart of hearts I know I can never know for sure.

Discretion is the better part of valor.

Brevity is the soul of wit so Ill end this little tirade with the conclusions Ive come to which seem applicable to me  follow at your own peril. If the fabric of our civilization isnt coming unraveled as we experience the second quarter Ill start Spaming the bum hostels. Id always intended to eat the good stuff anyway so I may start dipping into the canned caviar this summer.

But the Buck Stops There!

Now that I know Ill be living in the old homestead for a few more years its starting to look a little worn. Ill have to make repairs sooner or latter anyway so what better way to lose the lump?

Parting Is Such Sweet Sorrow,

But, I gotta go.

-- David Craig (DesertDave@aol.com), January 14, 2000

Answers

"The worst is not, so long as we can say 'THIS is the worst'".

"What fools these mortals be!"

-- Risteard Mac Thomais (uachtaran@ireland.com), January 14, 2000.

"Carry On Up The Khyber"

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 14, 2000.

"There goes a better man than I ........"

Typing is SO difficult when one is shaking in laughter on the floor.

Chuck

"Dinh, Dinh, more water"

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 14, 2000.

Since investing is nothing more than sophisticated gambling with high stakes, why not just take all your bonanza and play the Lottery? There, you know in a short while how your "INVESTMENTS" are doing. Either you win or you lose, no sweating, no waiting. I think the Lottery would be your best bet. Lose it the way many have, quietly wit lottery tickets. This will kick in the battle blood in short order.

-- Notforlong (fsur439@aol.com), January 14, 2000.

all's well, that ends well

-- JohnGalt (still@doom.er), January 14, 2000.

Heh, misread title as "winter of our disconnect".

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 14, 2000.

Many thanks to all for starting my day with such laughter. My immune system will be in overdrive all day.

-- Patricia (asap@aloha.net), January 14, 2000.

Do you come to bury Greenspan or to praise him?

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), January 14, 2000.