an unofficial poll on the impact scale

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I'm curious how many of us are still expecting significant disruptions or economic impacts based on the level of "glitches" that we are currently seeing. All last year I expected a "5" and prepared for an "8" to the best of my ability. I would have to say that I have lowered my expectations to a "3" at this time while still maintaining preparedness for an "8". In memory of "a," who did this periodically, what level are you currently expecting and what level were you at before New Year's Eve?

Below is the impact scale for newcomers who may not have seen it before: ********************** 0 - No real impact

1 - Local impact for some enterprises

2 - Significant impact for many enterprises

3 - Significant market adjustment (20%+ drop); some bankruptcies

4 - Economic slowdown; rise in unemployment; isolated social incidents

5 - Mild recession; isolated supply/infrastructure problems; runs on banks

6 - Strong recession; local social disruptions; many bankruptcies

7 - Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems, disruptions

8 - Depression; infrastructure crippled; markets collapse; local martial law

9 - Supply/infrastructure collapse; widespread disruptions, martial law

10 Collapse of US government; possible famine

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), January 13, 2000

Answers

No takers? I thought I would at least get flamed by some pollies. Oh well... how many of you think that the little Cuban boy (Elian Gonzales) should be sent back to his father?

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), January 13, 2000.

I was a 5, prepared for 7, now 0-1. What evidence is there of any larger threat looming? 3 may happen, but it would be difficult to attribute to y2k. I see old computer systems, and cash registers, functioning quite well all around, even in my own business. I believe what was missed is the tolerance economic and social systems have for a little chaos. It will take more than glitches, even a lot of them, to take down the global economy.

-- T. Hudson (thudson@preferred.com), January 13, 2000.

Now: Still concerned that we could see up to an 8.5. Slower grinding to a halt type of scenario.

Was: Worried/prepping for an 8.5+++++

Why no downgrade? Except for the rollover, for which we never had any real evidence of worry, but made a hell of a good deadline and drill, most of the problems, especially mainframes, were predicated on several months to fully develop.

I've got a small, fairly self reliant homestead, we are both still working, I've got about 125 people months of food, clothes, seeds, tools, books,(I'd prepped to help others a lot).

WHY should I change my worries at this time? I've said online several times that my personal "stand down" is 07-01-2000. By that time, I will be convinced that, if no "showstopper" problems have arisen, that I was, indeed wrong, this was fixed.

And, in fulfillment of a private oath, to myself, this agnostic shall join a church, in thankfulness for a miracle.

-- mushroom (mushroom_at_bs_too_long@yahoo.com), January 13, 2000.


I am expecting a 4. Prepared for a 7/8 for the most part. Just not sure about the timing of when a 4 level will be reached. Longer is better as I can better fine tune our family's responses (ie, preps). I'm still learning. Best of all, would be for any disruptions to be minimal. Plan for the worst, hope for the best. Where have we heard this before.

-- thomas saul (thomasaul@peoplepc.com), January 13, 2000.

Before rollover I was a 7 to 8. Now I'm a 2!

-- Ralph Kramden (and@awayWeGo.com), January 13, 2000.


The problem is the scale is all wrong; resolution too coarse.

What is needed is a 1-10 scale located within the above, with 1 being "local impact for some enterprises" and 10 being "signficant impact for many enterprises."

On THAT scale, I guess I'm a 3 :-)

-- John Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 13, 2000.


I agree with T. Hudson. It's a pretty robust system out there. No, I'm not chucking my preps just yet.

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), January 13, 2000.

Well, on the "Increase in Inanity Scale", a 10 judging from the posts I've seen.

-- ImSo (happy@prepped.com), January 13, 2000.

Funny how even a "3" seems pretty severe now as opposed to before the roll-over many of us would have said anyone expecting a "3" or less was in denial.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), January 13, 2000.

After preparing for nearly 2 years and spending a lot of money for a 6 or so, the impact to my family so far has been 0.

Although I'm not a programmer, I did manage/monitor the remediation process at my employer, a 800+ person manufacturing operation. We spent over $1.4MM US on PC, AS/400, servers, telephone systems, legacy code and a bunch more. I studied all of the internet experts for those two years and became as familiar as I could with the issues.

Unless embeddeds bite in the next several months and Infomagic's scenario plays out, many of us will remain at "0" or "1". This result would be welcome indeed.

I also agree with several of the posters that we are on the edge of an economic cliff. Very dangerous; perhaps more dangerous than any other countery has faced before.

Please be careful in your investments. The downside risk is very large.

-- D. Howard Rusling (jdrusling@aol.com), January 13, 2000.



I thought it could be anywhere from 2 to 10, prepared for an 8, now see a 0.3. Although I truly believe we are dependent on computers to an unhealthy degree, and would suffer greatly if they failed, I think we (even many pollies) greatly overestimated the effect of century date errors on the average system.

-- Bill Byars (billbyars@softwaresmith.com), January 13, 2000.

This is difficult. I expected a 6-7 and prepped for an 8.

I now expect a 4.5 (a 5 without a bank run) but lots of cards yet to be played - oil, international finance, end of month/end of qtr/end of yr calculations.

Chase Manhattan had a one day computer snafu that "lost" billions but was not acknowledged for months. Embeddeds are still an unresolved issue - if Y2K is over than why do Y2K snafus keep being publically reported ON THIS FORUM by Homer Beanfang and others?

AOL.com buying T-W, TPTB cannot afford to surrender their asset base to bubble.com - sooner or later someone will recognize thatthe Emperor wears no clothes.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 13, 2000.


I'll be your "biting" Polly, Jose. I've seen 0 impact personally, but as another poster stated above, some functions of 1 and 3 need to be combined. If a firm has difficulties, they may very well need to file for bankruptcy.

As a mainframe programmer, however, the impacts came long before Y2k. Most of us are STILL unemployed and currently training in more up-to-date technologies in hope of staying in the industry. Lots of us have already had the flu also, so I don't think there'll be a shortage of folks to fix problems. [grin]

Regarding your off-topic question, yes...I think the boy belongs with his dad. It's unfortunate that his welfare has become a political issue.

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.com), January 13, 2000.


The scale is skewed. Virtually anything in the way of a nationally affecting problem of any duration will involve political ramifications while may not necessarily involve the colapse of other aspects of the structure of things. Of course, if public confidence were shaken, then probably so would be the various markets.

Speaking of markets, if you follow the futures markets, the rising prices bode not well for low number impacts.

pliney the younger still worried in puget sound


-- pliney the younger (pliney@puget.sound), January 13, 2000.


I suppose I would go with a 5 (mild recession beginning in a few months) However, bank runs do not go with a mild recession. At this point, its just a wild guess. It could range between almost nothing and a depression. The only reason I think a depression is possible is the stock market mania and record consumer (household) debt.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), January 13, 2000.


Good point, Howard. There may be other "bumps in the road" besides y2k. We may have done the right thing (prepare) for the wrong reason.

It occured to me the other day that we are probably the first generation in history that has the luxury of not stocking and maintaining an ample pantry. Our parents and grandparents only went shopping once a week or less. Running to MacDonald's or Winn-Dixie to pick-up some fast food or quick groceries was not an option until the 60's

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), January 13, 2000.


I expected a 5, prepped for a 7, and felt guilty for doing so little... I still expect a 5, although the bank run thing is out of the picture, at least for the moment...

I was worried that a 7 or above would hit, and I would not have time or resources to protect those I love, but at a 5 or below, I can cope...

The apparent rise in chemical & refinery accidents has me worried, as well as the outbreak, among other things, of lassa fever case in Germany, the sharp rise in meningitis cases in the UK, but we always have certain uncertainties hanging over us, and we cope...

Still glad I have my preps, and not ready to go off alert for a while...

That's why I keep checking in here... I hope those that scour the net to keep us aware, don't stop... your work isn't over yet..

-- Carl (clilly@goentre.com), January 13, 2000.


Anita...

E-mail me your resume, my address is real...

-- Carl (clilly@goentre.com), January 13, 2000.


Easy question first: The boy belongs with his father and all the political rangling so that politicans can hope to gather votes from the Cuban Community in Miami seems pathetic. Surely the Cuban's see this for what it is, a "give me your vote" issue. To hell with the best interest of the child and his father. I believe the proper word for this is pandering.

Now, I am prepared for a 7/8, and am looking for a 5 later on as the millions of odd glitches begin to catch up to each other. I never did believe y2k of and by itself would be an earth shattering event, but rather, it would become a trigger for events, or an excuise if you will for other actions that will alter our present life style. No, I don't mean that we'll all be living in caves, dragging our kill of wild beasties onto a fire, where we all grunt and gesture to get our share. What I do mean is that any situation that gets out of hand regardless of the specific reason can now, at this point in time, be blamed on a computer flaw. If Russia, China, North Korea or any other of our closest friends decided to nuke us, well, it's not a bum Foreign Policy, it's an oops by a computer. I am as ready as I can be for whatever may come along, and for the time being, I plan on staying that way, as there are some of my neighbors who don't know how to boil water, without burning the pan, and they may need help. It's a long haul before this year is over.

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), January 13, 2000.


Carl:

Sorry, but I don't E-mail (nor post) my resume for public consumption. Just so you don't feel slighted, I don't send my resume to recruiters locally who simply ask for it without first discussing with me the offerings for which they have my services in mind. Sorry if I gave the impression that I was seeking help in employment by posting the status of many mainframe programmers today.

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.com), January 13, 2000.


I've got a dinner bet with a wealthy lawyer friend that we'll have a recession by the end of April. I guess that puts me at a 5.

A dumb bet for my friend, because if we don't have a recession his stock market investments will make him wealthier and he'll get a free dinner, but if he's wrong he'll be poorer and he'll also have to fork over for a dinner for me.

A smart bet for me, because if we have a recession I'll have less income for my consulting business, and I'll get a free dinner. If I'm wrong, I'll have more money and be able to afford buying the dinner...

-- Chuck (cestin@aa.net), January 13, 2000.


I was at 7 to 8, but could conceive of a 10. Now I'm between a 3 and a 4, not all Y2K related, but also attributable to an economic crash.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 13, 2000.

I expected a 0, prepared for a 0, and guess what? The world has experienced a 0. I have only seen a few doomsayers admit how wrong they were, they should all apologise!

-- Mr. Sane (hhh@home.com), January 13, 2000.

I am unfortunately still seeing an infomagic's senrio. There have been too many occurances showing up on the radar "news reports" etc. To early for what I had expected the time table to be. Being that "increased" reporting (over wat I had expected). I think infomagic has called it all correctly.

And Mr. Sane; sir only because this is a mixed forum, with ladies present. Prevents me from telling you how and where to use your candles! You stayed out or just plain lurked. Your greasy mouth silent. Untill you perceived that indeed there might be a chance that the pollys where right. Then sir! You slither in like like the proverbial serpent you are and hiss foulness at those around you. Crawl back under your rock, you principless paragon of perversion.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), January 14, 2000.


---I'm at a 12 from a 15, mainly because the russkys kept their cool, the king kept his cool, the nkoreans and chinese kept their cool, when they were all blind to some degree or another. Also, we stayed up, no giant infrastructure collapse-YET. and I think what's reported on this board is a tiny fraction of what's really going on. and, and, and...lot of variables. I had given y2k number 4 down for what I see as major problems, it still is, just not yet as severe as I thought it would be. Oil is looking strange, and the reports on databases are running hard against "all is well", and there's been some good tekkie articles here about the embeddeds and time frames and buffers..

Also we have some prety nasty real bugs floating around, and everyone seems to have forgotten that nile flu bug deal that went dormant in the cooler weather up in new york. It's supposed to reactivate in the spring, and we've been having some freaky mild weather.

oh yea, the king and his goons still suck, it's been too slow, we're probably gonna be seeing some more hijinx from that quarter-pick a topic, firearms is always a safe bet with him. Domestic terorism. For the children. It doesn't matter, he'll do it next scandal outbreak, real or contrived.

Real foreign rogue terrs. Bound to happen, sooner or later, cheap weapons of mass destruction, un-accounted for zillions of illegal money all over the globe, who knows who has it or what it's spent on, but "arms" in general are always hot tickets, everywhere.

zoggus

-- zog (zzoggy@yahoo.com), January 14, 2000.


Jose:

In what timescale? The events sparked by the '29 depression were massive. Starting out as merely a market crash, even we in America had increasing social upheaval.

[Read the history of Huey Long and the civil 'fracas' that occured between federal troops and Louisiana National Guard troops.]

Communist influence grew massively throughout the decade. If FDR hadn't gotten in front of the political issues by socializing things as much as he did, the communists and radical socialists would possibly have gone much farther then just sparking the massive riots and protests that they organised.

After 10 years of 'depression', Europe exploded [1939]. My impression is that this war, the largest war in human history, saved America from a downward spiral of social disorder.

So Jose, a lot of people see the economic bubble that we are in as significantly larger than the '29 one. Don't you?

Clearly the global managerial elite is more 'professional' and united than ever. So I expect that no matter what happens, we'll 'manage'. For a while.

But where will we be in 10 years? In 20? The only thing I know for sure about 10 and 20 years from now is the demographics of the baby boom retirement. I suggest we all take a look at that issue. It puts all events of this sort in a different light.

I haven't 'prepped'. But for those of you who have: Hey, it's good enough for the Boy Scouts. But what if what you fear takes years or decades to unfold? Are you prepared to live and interact normally for an extended time? You and yours can survive a crisis, but can you and your relationships survive the peace?

One thing will get you ahead no matter what. And no force on earth can take it from you: Strengthen the *bonds* of personal relationships in your lives.

In all these matters, future performance is best indicated by past performance.

Time and time again we see that the key 'prep', the most lucrative investment, and the greatest growth oppurtunity is in the strength of our personal relationships. If you don't know how to build these up, learn. Personal relationships are either your best hope, or your biggest weakness. There is no real middle ground when it comes to one's loves.

-- tim phronesia (phronesia@webtv.net), January 14, 2000.


I started breaking down my preps the other day. However I changed my mind and have starte reprepping with intense vigor. Not so much because of the Y2K thing, altho it is not over I don't think, but because of the world situation with China and Russia and all their little darlings. I can remember the rationing crisis during WW2, even though I was only a child. Will not get caught short again, if at all possible. In war all things are used for that effort, and the ordinary citizen is expendable. Adding this to the remainder of the Y2K thing, and we have a real, not an imaginary, but a real problem. Bombs, chemicals, and biological agents show no partiality at all. Whether you are rich, poor, dumb or smart, fat or thin, you can be a casualty. Being a casualty can mean getting caught short on the very nenessassary things of life like food and water. Folks, frankly I am far more frightened about China and Russia than I ever was about Y2K. And to think our government has done what they have done in giving to oour sworn enemies the Panama Canal, has more or less given to them the ability to raise their armed might to the level of ours, and they are still giving your and my tax dollars to these enemies of ours. It would appear as if our government has a desire for our destruction. It would appear as if our own government is our largest enemy.

-- Notforlong (fsur439@aol.com), January 14, 2000.

Jose your scaqle takes some time to cross-reference to the CSY2K scale I used in preparation. As near as I can tell, the CSY2K 8.0 I feel prepped for is a 10+ on your scale.

As far as the current picture goes, a 7 or an 8 is not out of the question. We're just finishing fiscal week two of Year 2000. There's a *lonnnngggg* time left before we can say "There were no major problems from the Year 2000 changeover."

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 14, 2000.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ