Caution bull's.....the cliff lies straight ahead. Be wary and live well.... Jester

-- Jester (whocares@anyway.com), January 11, 2000

Answers

Ray,Flierdude,Andy, Dick Moody and Investment savvy posters. What's a smart play for an apparent downturn in the market. Most 401ks at least the ones i am familiar with have limited options, short of holing it up in a Money Market for the ride.

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), January 11, 2000.

We moved ours to a Stable Income Fund, this was our only option for the least risk. The return on it isn't that great, but it beats losing 50-75% of it if the economy takes a dive. We are 10 years away from retirement and can't afford to lose it. If the road looks clear down the way, of course we will move it around. In our 401K plan, our options are company stock (not right now it's to volatile, law suits pending, stock lost 45% of it's value in the last 2 years). Russell 2000 (small cap fund) not doing that great. S&P we could have made some money but too risky. Bond Index Fund, took a dive not doing well at all. We're stuck just like you.

-- stuck too (stucktoo@stucktoo.xcom), January 11, 2000.

What can anyone do at this point, but wait with uncommitted money. I have money in Treasuries, money market (Treasury) funds, CDs, and physical gold... I really never expected everything to be standing at this point!!! I have cash in small bills.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 11, 2000.

Climbing "the wall of worry", baby.

-- (gawking@market.mavens), January 11, 2000.

I've got it in GE money market earning 6% which is vastly greater than the local banks but in comparison to the stock market it might as well be in the mattress. Can't short the market because I don't know how much longer the insanity can continue. The tech valuations are obscene. A lot of people betting on these internet upstarts are going to take it in the shorts when that fad falls out of favor. It will have to be flight to quality - companies that actually have earnings or growing earnings.

For that matter the stock market is run by the analysts and First Call now. If a company doesn't meet its expectations then it goes down the shitter no matter what its earnings, history or dividends, example Lucent and so many others.

Bottom line - If you like to gamble, you don't have to go Vegas, Atlantic City or the indian reservation any more.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), January 11, 2000.

If the market drops 50%, those who bought the NASDAQ a year ago will be ahead 36%

-- ImSo (happy@prepped.com), January 11, 2000.

Naw man easy Al's getting ready to build that bridge to the 21st century.

-- Swampthing (in@the.swamp), January 11, 2000.

I guess you-all in 401K's are trapped to whatever establishment investments you are allowed. So a Money fund would be your best bet -- make sure it is a "Federal" (gov paper) money fund rather than a commercial paper money fund.

If you have more latitude -- you could consider contra-cyclical money funds -- the epitome being The Prudent Bear Fund (http://www.prudentbear.com)

For Gold and Silver fund -- Central Fund (symbol CEF) (http://www.centralfund.com)

If you want to do any or all of gold/silver/platinum/palladium -- "semi-physical" (http://www.e-gold.com)

Then, individual gold stocks are Durban Deep (DROOY) and Harmony (HGMCY).

-- A (A@AisA.com), January 11, 2000.

Correction: Prudent Bear is a regular mutual fund, not a MMF. They short some stuff and and are long some contracyclical stuff.

-- A (A@AisA.com), January 11, 2000.

This idiot's investing in a '65 Mustang tomorrow. Ah ain't got the attention span to play the market.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), January 11, 2000.

Love it, Lisa! We, the ones with a short attention span, just stay 100% cash, with, most probably, 0% return (maybe even negative return, but I'm not that sure), and just wait. Short attention span is not the same as ignorant or uneducated. In fact, I believe the uneducated are the vast, vast majority of the modern trader, for whom History does not apply anymore. Oh Yeah! It is a new economy! Cycles (waves) do not apply anymore! We've conquered the nature of markets! Bubbles? What bubbles?? Ha! As somebody I trust said -"Genius is a Bull Market". Problem is, History shows, the real genius walks with the Bear. Party On!! I love my mattress.

-- Eli (Eli@zephyr.net), January 11, 2000.

If the market drops 50%, those who bought the NASDAQ a year ago will be ahead 36%

Really? Let's see. The NASDAQ index was up about 80% in 1999, right? I'm not sure where it ended, but let's say it was 3800, in which case it started at about 2100. If it dropped 50%, that would take it to 1900, which looks like about a 10% LOSS, not a 36% GAIN. (The actual figures don't matter; the percentages would be the same in any case).

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), January 11, 2000.

And you're only ahead on the money you used to buy the NASDAQ at the start of the year. Whatever funds you used to buy stocks in the interim would go *poof*. You know many folks who were in the market a year ago, have stayed in, and didn't buy any more stocks in the interim? Not too many, methinks.

A Nikkei-sized 50% correction would certainly take a bit of the luster off the "wealth effect", wouldn't it?

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 11, 2000.

Gold is now $284 and poised as ever to a)protect wealth b)increase in value substantially when the correction hits. Silver even more so, the traditional gold/silver ratio is way out of whack and silver will [logic dictates ha!] relatively speaking increase in dollar value much more than gold. Last year, up to about October, I made emoney in the Prudent Bear fund. It gave me great peace of mind. By October however it seemed that the market crash was not going to happen and the Prudent Bear tanked. If/when the market starts to go belly up the circuit breakerss will come into play. You will still have time to entear BEARX but will miss at least two days gains. Where will the flight to quality go? I still say gold, then silver. Each to his own, place your bets. If you do nothing you get hit with inflation and opportunity loss. KISS. Gold.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 11, 2000.

BTW I got out of BEARX in October. It's been downhill with BEARX ever since. With an etrade account you can nip in and out in 24 hours. You can even margin BEARX at 50%, if you feel lucky, punk/ette ;o)

Anyone stuck in company 401k's like I was a year ago, pick their safest money-market-type account until the dust settles. Nearly all companies have such a fund/account, they are usually used as a temp. holding account during rollovers/retirements procedures etc.

Again, they will give you peace of mind if Wall St. is scaring you.

Gold will do the same. With the advantage of no capital gains taxes when it runs. Not that you would sell, would you? :0)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 11, 2000.

Andy.... Gold and Siver physical positions with me are covered just short of me sleeping on the couch....if you get my drift. But it's the limited options i have with the 401k that i ponder. Thanks for a couple of earlier posts may help with those options as well. Thanks to all.

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), January 11, 2000.