Jean Comeau's predictions--today may be the day.

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S&P Futures are up 13.50 this morning. If they stay this high, the DJIA should easily open well above Mr. Comeau's magic numbers of 11,550-11,600.

-- New Guy (Newbie@begentle.com), January 10, 2000

Answers

Who is Jean Comeau? I did a search on his name, and only found one document listing a connection between stock prices, stock market crash, and Y2K, but the page was dead. Everything else was a bunch of French genealogy pages and some French Canadian history, especially as relates to the Quebecois issue.

-- French Speaking American (francophone@hotmail.com), January 10, 2000.

There was a better explaination posted below, but this is from an email from Gary North:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average touched 11,568.72 on December 30. Then it fell back. Just one decade earlier, to the week (maybe to the day), the Japanese stock market peaked at just under 40,000. It has never come close to 30,000, except on its downward slide.

This 11,568.72 number is curious. Let me explain.

I am not a follower of Elliott Wave theory. It's too complex a system for my abilities. But last May, I received a detailed essay from a Jean Comeau of Quebec, a commodities advisor -- registered, he says, in Chicago. He wanted me to post the essay on my site. It was not Y2K- related, I told him, so I didn't.

Yesterday, he sent it to me again. His essay said that the Dow's top would be 11,550-11,600. He wrote,

"WAVE 5: WHEN DOW JONES HITS 11560 TO 11600 POINTS. END OF MAJOR BULL MARKET, PERIOD.

He then got even more specific:

Wave 5 or 1999 = Fibonacci number 34 times 339 equals 11526 plus 43 (crash low) equals 11569.

I do not pretend to understand this system. Robert Prechter is an Elliott wave theory proponent. I read his book, AT THE CREST OF THE TIDAL WAVE (1995), and I reviewed it in the November, 1995 issue of REMNANT REVIEW. The market has gone far above what he predicted. In fact, he predicted a fall to Dow 1,000, beginning in late 1995 or 1996. But Mr. Comeau's number is highly specific. I do not care that it is 0.28 above 11,568.72. It's close enough.

Mr. Comeau is predicting a fall of over 5,000 points in the Dow in the next two months. I think I will ask him to do more writing for me as soon as it falls by 2,000.

I am no Elliott Wave aficionado. It's too technical for my taste -- strictly numbers-based. I see no reason to believe that Fibonacci numbers control stock market average prices, especially one market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I see no reason to believe that this index, and not some other, is THE number to watch in preparation for a worldwide depression. I think the Federal Reserve can still do a lot to forestall a crash, such as buy S&P 500 futures. The money pouring into the stock market from pension funds today is an ocean. Short of an unexpected crisis -- such as a lock-up of a major bank's computer system or default by some heavily leveraged hedge fund-- I cannot imagine a fall this rapid, now that the Y2K rollover is behind us.

Still, I will pay close attention to the Dow. Let's see if it penetrates 11,569. If it does, will it then penetrate 11,600? If it doesn't, I may develop a new interest in Elliott Wave theory -- at least until the end of February.

-- New Guy (Newbie@begentle.com), January 10, 2000.


Excellent time to short the sucker if you buy into this stuff. Otherwise it's not too helpful.

It's nice our free market allows us to put our money where our mouth is, and even the smallest of investors can profit from their inside information on obvious doom REAL SOON NOW.

-- ImSo (happy@prepped.com), January 10, 2000.


God Bless America!!!

I like when people make predictions and place a specific date or circumstances with it. A lot of people predicte a stock market crash, but not many will give a date or specifices. At least this guys has the guts to put something concrete down. If the DJIA blows past his numbers and hits 13,000 by the end of the month, then we know this guy is nuts.

-- New Guy (Newbie@begentle.com), January 10, 2000.


And, with the market this overbought, I am personally betting the guy has a chance of being right!!

-- ImSo (happy@prepped.com), January 10, 2000.


DJIA just blew past the 11,550 number in open. Come on 11,600.

-- New Guy (Newbie@begentle.com), January 10, 2000.

11,600 is here. Is the fat lady warming up or is Comeau wrong???

-- New Guy (Newbie@begentle.com), January 10, 2000.

11,608

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), January 10, 2000.

Uh oh 11,602

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), January 10, 2000.

11623.39 at 10:00 am EST

-- justa lurker (my@mail.com), January 10, 2000.


Their are two earlier threads about Jean Comeau's prediction which give us his exact posting. Today is clearly important. The stock must make a new high of at least 11569 to quailify, but if the Dow can go substantially ahead this figure, then it put's his whole reasoning into question.

-- Sure M. Hopeful (Hopeful@future.com), January 10, 2000.

Mr. Hopeful,

Are you hopeful it will continue it's rise, or hopeful it will crash?

-- (I'm@pol.ly), January 10, 2000.


Neither. What I do want to know is, what's going to happen and my hopes and wishes don't count. If there's going to be a crash, the social and economic consequences will be severe.

-- Sure M. Hopeful (Hopeful@future.com), January 10, 2000.

Not to guess on the specifics, but the Dow number might be a closing number. The market ticks for a single minute or hour are Usually not of great concern to longer term forcasts. This is because the shorter market moves contain more "noise."

Also Elliot Wave doesn't say that the numbers control the behaviour of the market but that the markeet behaves in predictable manner because in a broad sense people tend to make the same mistakes over and over. The more we here that "its different this time," or "the new paradigm," makes this people in this market look more and more like 1928, 1929.

There is the fed factor. I agree that the federal reserve has a tremendous amount of muscle to push markets. There is a greater willingness to use the tools (authorized or not) to control the broader market moves. The problem with any discussion of the fed moving markets is why haven't they been able to dampen this market well before the bubble and froth took over? Greenspan spoke of irrational exuburence at what Dow 6,000 or so. Their are some who think that the even today's active fed is more reactive than proactive. They generally match the market moves, but this is assuming that there is little behind the scenes manipulation.

"Stocks tend to fluctuate"

My prediction, Just like 1929 when this bubble has finally run its course we will all be suprised how high it went, just as we will be suprised how low it will fall.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), January 10, 2000.


I may not have been a Y2K doomer but the possibility of a stock market crash in our lifetimes cannot be ruled out. Japan in 1990 is my precedent of a mania.

The DOW is hovering about 10600 just now. Comeau gave a precise number but also a range of 10550-10600 (i.e. about +/- 0.25%) which I wonder how he came to?

Regards,

Shuggy.

-- Shuggy (shimei123@yahoo.co.uk), January 10, 2000.



It's falling....... 11,570.00

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), January 10, 2000.

Currently sitting up 49 at about 11571. just sitting there. kinda of interesting.


-- Neo (LostintheMatrix@aol.com), January 10, 2000.


Not to sound like an idiot or anything, but doesn't the market need something to spook it? So far this year, albeit we're only 10 days into it, everything appears golden and rosey. Retailers had a great Christmas. No Y2K disasters. What would make people want to get out now? This theory sounds interesting, though a bit arbitrary.

Claudia

-- CD (cdokeefe@firstva.com), January 10, 2000.


I know... let's start a rumor.

Like:

"Money causes cancer" or

"Financially stable people are 54% more likely to be the victim of alien abductions" or

"Investing in stocks has been proven to raise blood pressure" or

Well, you get the picture...the point is, you could say anything because nobody will listen since it hasn't happened in THEIR lifetime or for some other ostrich reason.

And if they don't have it to lose, it shouldn't be in the market anyway.

-- Ric (ice163@worldnet.att.net), January 11, 2000.


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