So Y2K wasn't an immediate disaster. OK. So the other main thing I worried about was the saber rattling by Russian and all our carriers and subs in port. What's up with the Bear? Has he curled up and gone back to sleep after the rollover?

-- Not Glowing Yet (stillinthe@bunker.com), January 09, 2000

Answers

Not Glowing Yet:

No major changes in Russian military posture, with the exception of their "re-evaluation of strategy" regarding Chechnya...

Remember that Putin thinks differently than Yeltsin did. He's more of a hawk and is already subtly suggesting a return to nationalist ideals. This was addressed on Friday by Putin's Christian Orthodox message to Russians, and Sandy Berger's concerns about what's going on over there.

Do you have to panic? NO.

Should you turn your eyes and brain off? NO.

I expect no dramatic shifts in military posture or foreign policy directives...I do expect small, subtle changes that will be largely overlooked by the media.

What should you do for now? Closely watch what Putin says and does regarding actions in Chechnya. He's already cleaning house in Moscow, and has fired two commanders (western & eastern front cmdrs) with, in my mind, political motivation.

The Chechan war is not going well by any measure of success, and the Russians are becoming aware of skyrocketing casualty rosters. Putin wants to look good, has a KGB background and is--historically--a hawk.

FWIW

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 09, 2000.

Sorry, forgot...

Also keep your eyes on North Korea, China and India/Pakistan. Events in the recent past (mid-Dec onward) do not paint a picture of serenity and stability.

No, I'm not being alarmist. I'm calling your attention to troublesome areas of the world that have real potential to draw in nuclear powers--like India accusing Pakistan of supporting terrorists, and calling for the US to support India against Pakistan...

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 09, 2000.

No word yet on the 20 suds in the Russian graveyard. Last word was an ambiguos sign of trouble posted from info allegedly obtained from a .mil source. I expect if the mission was completed successfully then we would have heard, given the departure of our ships did make it into the mainstream media. Nothing to do but wait...

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 10, 2000.

I believe that in one of Nyquist's recent articles, he mentioned that Russia was selling platinum... a positive sign towards scaling back their war-like preparations. My hopes lie in that direction...

-- Mumsie (shezdremn@aol.com), January 10, 2000.

That is on target Mumsie. It seems the bear was ready for the rollover to take advantage of a bad situation. But it never materialized. Also heard mention that Russia tried to knock out satellites but failed.

I'm breathing much easier. The next window of opportunity according to Joel Skousen is 2004 after we dismantle our blockbuster peacekeeper missiles, our largest ICBMS. But who knows for sure.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), January 10, 2000.

I agree with BB and Kurt. The Russians were prepared to launch on us if Y2K appeared to be totally disabling the countries in its path. It didn't so they didn't.

The Chinese and Russians have several new weapons systems, submarines, aircraft, nuclear missiles and warheads, ships, and underground shelters under construction that are scheduled for completion in mid 2003. I think they have planned the major confrontation for that time period all along, and Y2K was a premature tripwire which could have forced them to play their hand early. The threat hasn't gone away, but this window of opportunity has. Breathe easy for a few years, and do what you can to prep for the big show in 2004-5.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), January 10, 2000.