In response to Ed Yourdon

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Dear Mr. Yourdon,

I'm not sure it's possible to prove you were wrong about Y2K. Your writing was far too careful. During your climactic performance for the U.S. Senate, you managed to ask only for better information. You said "Sayonara" six months before the big event. You managed a delicate balance. You were concerned enough to satisfy most of your Y2K following, but you avoided the inflammatory rhetoric of others... particularly in other venues.

I have consistently defended your right to enter the marketplace and "sell" Y2K. While I think software development metrics were misapplied to remediation, I'm willing to acknowledge your expertise in software far exceeds mine. On the other hand, your views on Y2K were shared by only a tiny minority of the IT world.

Your book, however, was never targeted to the IT community. IT pros were probably far too busy reading and writing code to peruse it. Your tome was aimed at a popular audience who didn't know much about remediation or the economics of a ten-year depression. (This may be one reason people are upset... they considered you a gold-plated expert) Your book succeeded wildly. TB 2000 made you a "cult hero," if you'll pardon the phrase.

Your book opened the door for your video and MLM... other ventures also meant for the general public. You never forced anyone to buy your Y2K line of products. Caveat emptor.

People are mad at you because you are a convenient target... and they just don't appreciate how carefully you crafted your book. After all, you never promised we'd have a ten-year depression... you said we MIGHT have a ten-year depression. Unfortunately, some folks just aren't careful readers.

And you did have good company. There were worryworts in the State Department, CIA, U.S. Navy and the FBI. Of course, the key acronymm for all of these agencies is CYA. After recent intelligence failures no one wanted to be caught with their pants down about Y2K. I don't blame you for not considering this in your assessment. After all, your expertise is computer software.

We can apply the same lesson to the economics in TB 2000. You found enough negative information to form your conclusions... but again, your background is in software. In your defense, I respect economist Ed Yardeni and he found enough to worry about a global depression. Yardeni was willing to put an actual number on the chance of a depression... five percent. Unfortunately, you were never quite that specific.

I do agree that Y2K expenditures were necessary... and they seem wildly successful. Almost enough to make one consider "rewriting" the book on metrics. (humor)

Oh, and for those smart, serious people who were wrong with you... some of them have actually admitted their error. Yardeni has modified his recession prediction down to 30 percent and, well, de Jager dropped out a while back. Based on your article, you seem content to wait and see if we stumble into the ten-year depression down the road. With every passing day, however, Y2K becomes less relevant to an economic downturn than structural weaknesses.

I am sorry about the nasty email, however, I have trouble believing you do not understand the hostility. Please, Ed. You've spent enough time on this forum to understand how strongly people feel about Y2K. (life and death) And unless you have no observational powers, you might have notice some were within a stone's throw of completely unhinged. Remember the reaction to your "Sayonara?"

You've always been civil to me, Ed, and I thank you. I even purchased your book many months ago... though I did give it away after reading it. Writing about "potential" social and economic collapse is a dangerous pastime... particularly for a software expert. Hell, it's dangerous for an economist as Ravi Batra discovered. (And lest you think I feel qualified, I do not.)

Most informed observers expect to battle Y2K glitches all year. It may time, however, to renounce the ten-year depression scenario... at least as caused by Y2K. You might be well served to join Yardeni, de Jager, et al, and help those still waiting for the meltdown to move on.

The people who read your book were consenting adults. Your "what if" style, however, may have been a bit too clever... and the "Beirut" comment didn't really help. Were you responsible, Ed?

Perhaps not.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 06, 2000

Answers

Ken,

I think we must both be getting old and senile -- this message of yours was far too friendly. I feel badly that you actually spent the money to purchase a copy of my book; I'd be happy to refund the price if you want.

Re the "Beirut" comment: you're definitely right about that one. The problem is that when I made that comment to the NYC Y2K User's Group in Nov 1997, I had no idea that a BBC reporter (or, for that matter, ANY reporter from ANY media outlet) was in the room. I thought it was just a bunch of us IT geeks, and I was searching (extemporaneously) for a metaphor that would convey the concern that I felt. For whatever it's worth, I think the NYC Y2K command center (aka "bunker") was prepared for a Beirut-like situation. And had any of the rumored terrorist threats become a reality, I think it would have looked like Beirut.

Your final question: "Were you responsible, Ed?" Jeez, I did the best I could. I'm not perfect, and I'm sure that I made mistakes ... but if you were willing to modify your question to read "Did you try your very best to be responsible, Ed?" I would swear on a stack of Bibles that the answer is "Yes, yes, YES."

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 07, 2000.


For you newbies, Ken's greatest pleasure is placing his prey in his incredibly boring, shallow crosshairs.

We're taking up a collection to send the boy to Africa, where he can blast away........ in the thrill of the senseless, idiot-guy-thing safari hunt.

He's already indicated his calibre preference.... just need to supply plane tickets.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), January 07, 2000.


Ken, are you an idiot in real life or do you just play one on TimeBomb?

-- a (a@a.a), January 07, 2000.

Ken is manager of the town of Hampstead, MD, population about 4200 people. This is what he told them about Y2K.

TOWN Y2K UPDATE

Ken Decker

The Town of Hampstead stands ready for the new millennium. Long before I arrived, town officials and employees were busy checking our local Y2K readiness. As much as possible, we have tested our systems. We also have developed a contingency plan to address potential problems. Our key areas of concern:

Water - We depend on electricity to pump water. BGE has assured us the power will be on, but we do have a back-up generator to run some of our pumps. If the power is out, please minimize your water use. This will help us keep your water flowing until power returns.

Traffic Lights - Fortunately, the first day of the new year is a holiday. Traffic on Route 30 should be lighter than on a normal working day. If the signal system is not working properly, we will have stop signs posted to control the east and west legs of Route 30 intersections.

Communications - Our radio or phone systems are Y2K ready. As a precaution, we plan to use the Hampstead Volunteer Fire Department building as our Y2K activity center.

The news on Y2K has been increasingly positive throughout 1999. Businesses and public agencies have spent billions of dollars to ensure readiness. Reports from critical sectors like utilities, telecommunications and banking have been positive. Overall, we are confident any disruptions to basic services will be minor and brief. Even with these upbeat reports, there are still questions about exactly what will happen at midnight on January 1, 2000. Some agencies recommend preparing for Y2K as if we expected a severe winter storm on January 1st. If you want information on preparation, we suggest your look at the guidelines published by the American Red Cross or the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). You can find this information on their web sites. We also will have printed copies available for distribution at Town Hall and at the North Carroll Library. The most important advice we can offer is to stay safe and calm. If there are Y2K problems in Hampstead, we'll start work on them immediately. It will be much easier if we do not have our emergency staff dealing with fallout from New Year's Eve celebrations including folks who try drinking and driving. If you have any questions about our Y2K readiness, please feel free to call me at Town Hall.

And for those who wish to know about 36 year old Ken's Navy service, education, and experience, and how qualified he is to judge Ed Yourdon, you will find it at

http://www.carr.org/hampstead/newsletter/page2.html

-- Amazing (what you@find.on.the.web), January 07, 2000.


Ken you just may be right.I fell for the economic part of it too.And the break down of every thing.We still may break down.But people are good at wording there talks. Look at the president.

-- oldie (i'm@not.new), January 07, 2000.


"if there's nothing left to say, Ken will say it." -- old Chinese proverb

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), January 07, 2000.

4200 people? Geez I never even worked for a *company* that small. I guess we see why he wasnt afraid of a large city meltdown now though.

-- programmer (programmer@code.com), January 07, 2000.

Holy Cow! You mean his 'citizens' - read 'producers' - have to put up with him, too?

Not just this forum, but an entire town is subject to his ego?

And we bitch about our local government.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), January 07, 2000.


TM: more like "if there's nothing left to say, Ken's mouth can be used as a space heater"

-- a (a@a.a), January 07, 2000.

Gosh... all this attention. I downplayed my econ background in my bio, but hey, who wants an economist running the Town? (laughter) I will work on a picture for the Town web page... and I am 37 now (though I didn't receive any birthday wishes from forum regulars).

I was disappointed in the response to the Y2K article in the newsletter. We didn't receive a single inquiry. Of course, we didn't have a single Y2K problem. The water (and sewer) are still working as are all of our computers.

As for my avid "fans" like "a" and "Lisa," I'm working on my farewell essay. The forum seems busier than ever, but I'm not sure we'll find much serious debate on Y2K. There may be providence in the fall of a sparrow... and someone will find a Y2K link to the event.

And if you read this thread, Ed, no hard feelings. We've disagreed on how Y2K would turn out. I wish you well in your future endeavors... though I think you're safer sticking with software.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 07, 2000.



Sheesh, I didn't finish the first paragraph, and I knew who posted this.

Give it up Ken. What are you doing, cheerleading for Hoff?

I'm sure Ed is thankful that you bought his book. But you know what? I'm thankful that Ed had the balls to talk about Y2K. And you know what else? Ed doesn't have $.01 of my money. All we have in common is 3 decades of programming experience.

Jeez Ken, who do you think you are addressing here, duh dum blond on da corner?

It's called the YEAR 2000 PROBLEM, Ken. Welcome to day 7.

<:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), January 07, 2000.


Sorry, I didn't sign properly.

Tick... Tock... <:00= ...

The clock started 7 days ago.

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), January 07, 2000.


Come on Ken stick around! Is this all the show you can stand, just a few firecrackers? You don't like Roman Candles and cherry bombs??

-- :) (@ .), January 07, 2000.

My Number Two behind ambulance chasing lawyers: pontificating patronizing politicians whose avocation is writing.

Methinks I smell a forthcoming book, no, Ken? Surely you will not leave your words to be confined to cyberspace, unread by millions?

And you think Yourdon is 'too carefully written?' BWHAAAAAAA!

-- Evaign (offbrand@hotmail.com), January 07, 2000.


Lisa, You're so funny. Good answer, Ed--not that you need to answer.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 07, 2000.


There you have it folks. Ed Yourdon is always a class act. And, Ken is always...well, just Ken.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), January 07, 2000.

That's not a bad idea Ed.

If anyone deserves a refund, It's Mr. Decker. Hummm, I can only assume that Mr. Hoffman has your book, so if you're only giving one away, it's a tough choice.

What about a refund for the top 5 pollys? We throw in Mr. Flint, Ms. Cherri...

Hang in there Ed. <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), January 07, 2000.


Disagree, and still remain civil? Come on folks, Ken has stated himself here as well as he ever did in the past.

We no longer stand against an unmoveable deadline. Tel. and elec. are holding with few problems. But the jury is still out on this third leg. Untill a few months pass in accessing our data systems, victory will be hard to claim and no one needs to apologize, especially Ed. The possibilities were and still remain in place.

Maybe you can ask those worrywarts from the State Dept.,CIA,U.S. Navy, and FBI, If they should not apologize. The strongest credence for disruption was provided by those in the intellegence service of Govn.

Oh, don't worry about me waiting for the meltdown. I,m a surviver of adversity. This year has been a tremendous learning experience. Whatever we face, I will be better prepared to meet it head on. One year following this forum should at least earn a degree in psychology, don't you think?

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), January 07, 2000.


Ken,

Sysman is right, it's only day 7, so don't write the final epitaph for Y2K yet. Hang around. I don't always agree with your viewpoint (well, actually, I seldom agree w/it), but it has always (well, almost always) been (fairly) intelligent.

Happy 37th Birthday (just turned 38 myself).

-- Phread (lurking@y2k.com), January 07, 2000.


I have read many of Mr. Deckers essays, and I must say he is the most eloquent redneck I have ever experienced...

P.S. Rumor is, the town used to be 42,000, till Ken started talking :)

Kidding Ken... you're skill at shooting down flights of fancy has been an asset to this forum, despite the dry manner you sometimes choose to cut to the chase...

Glad to see you deserted yet... it IS a little early...

-- Carl (clilly@goentre.com), January 07, 2000.


That was "Glad you HAVENT deserted us yet... some us are struggling to deal with the flu, chemtrail induced or not, as well as fix the ones that got away... wish us luck...

Night all...

-- Carl (clilly@goentre.com), January 07, 2000.


Ken,

The sanctimonious tenor you have displayed during your participation on this forum has been absolutely amazing. Although you have been, without question, one of the most articulate posters in this venue, much of the value to be found in your words has been smothered by your arrogance.

Though your education may be great... you still have a lot to learn about people.

-- cujo (waahoo@my_deja.com), January 07, 2000.


Ken, if you want a perfect world, then go to sleep...and create one. Mr. Yourdon, an expert in computer systems, did the best he could to warn us about a potentially disastrous problem. Was he 100% correct? No, few of us (apparently with the exception of YOU) are. I respect Mr. Yourdon and those like him who sounded the bell with informed opinions and cautionary warnings.

If you want 100% predictions, may I suggest you take up reading the bible? Purchase a crystal ball and take a few classes in scrying? Give it a break Ken.

-- Ynott (Ynott@incorruptible.com), January 07, 2000.


Let's pillory Ken for being reasonable, balanced, consistent, polite and correct, yes?

There's nothing doomers hate more than a flame proof polly who just won't stop being right.

;p

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 07, 2000.


"There's nothing doomers hate more than a flame proof polly who just won't stop being right."

Congratulations on making yourself 100% hate-proof.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), January 07, 2000.


Ed,

Congrats on being one of the few posters on this thread to discuss content, not authorship. As for the refund, thank you for the offer, but I will pass. It was a required "textbook" for this class... and beside, we both know the publisher makes all the money.

As for "Beirut," live and learn. Honestly, I think you were somewhat surprised to find yourself leading the Y2K parade. And if I may speak candidly, you did not seem entirely "prepared" for your odd assortment of followers. (no pun intended) Even during your Senate testimony, you seemed a trifle naive. Trust me, this is a compliment to anyone who has ventured inside the beltway.

Perhaps you never realized you would become an Old Testament prophet. Or how your audience would react. It seems reasonable to take you at your word, particularly in light of your unfailing civility. We all tried, Ed, and amazingly enough, it seemed to work....

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 07, 2000.


(1 Cor 13:8 KJV) "Charity never faileth: but whether there be prophecies (predictions), they shall fail;"

Anyone predicting the future is subject to failure. I've seen it, and most of you have seen it, as in economics forecasting etc.

It takes guts to go out on a limb.

If a sentry suspects a problem he reports it! If it turns out to be no problem, you can rest. It does not mean a problem will not occur towmorrow. Just means everything is ok at the moment.

This world is goofy and it is well worth it to keep your eyes open. And no good to hunker in a bunker. Can't see anything down there.

Back in '89 I suspected the real estate market was going to dump. My brother in law was at the point of selling a spec home and would have made some big bucks. He got his last offer on the home approx three months before the crash, he turned it down. I was thinking I should talk to him about the situation but I was afraid of being wrong and as a result, no more offers, the bank repossesed the home and he went bankrupt and is now living in the mountains driving a long haul truck.

Am I better for not having warned him? What if I had warned him and the market kept climbing? Etc.

-- Mark Hillyard (foster@inreach.com), January 07, 2000.


"if there's nothing left to say, Ken's mouth can be used as a space heater."

Whoooooieee.....hahahahooooohoha. I've nothing more to aaaaaddddd. Just wanted to tell 'a' how very glad I am to see him bacKKKK. Sheeeeese, somebody give me a kleenex. I don't want to break into my stash of 426 rolls of tp quite yet!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), January 07, 2000.


The real question is... if people hadn't been warning the IT community, et. al., and sounding the alarm and galvenizing a planet to "deal" with Y2K rather than ignore it... where would we be now?

And what would the world systems have looked like today, if most had ignored the warnings? Humm?

There is a time for every season.

It could have easily "looked like" Beruit... if no one had listened.

Lessons learned.

Day 7. Stay tuned.

Not having a global heart attack on rollover eve, does not mean the world doesn't have cancer. And it doesn't mean it does. Observe.. and be prepared for anything.

Shift Happens.

Diane, still grateful for the hot showers

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 07, 2000.


Waaaaaaaaaait a minute! Year 2000, and we're only on day seven? What is the point? Are we going to be hearing that we have to wait for 365 days before giving it up? Or should we wait 365,000 days, until it's y3k?

I thought everything was going to break down at midnight, one day last week. I know, we've been having glitches for months, and we will continue to have them for more months. MAYBE even some power problems when the aircons kick in next summer. But the embedded systems were supposed to concentrate everything to the "turnover", remember? Remember "See you on the OTHER SIDE"? Lets use this forum for something more productive, or just give it up. Jeezus H. Crist

-- jumpoff joe a.k.a. Al K. Lloyd (jumpoff@ekoweb.net), January 07, 2000.


Feel free to 'jump off' any time you'd like, 'Joe'.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), January 07, 2000.

Ken; Thank you for setting the example for Hoffmeister. Had he done it that way, I would have NEVER taken issue with his tactics.

Your questions and opinions seem to be well thought out and very graciously expressed. Not that my opinion of that should count for anything, it is just that I have been somewhat vocal about tactics lately and want to go on record as being able to find the middle ground with anyone willing to search for it with me.

I know you don't feel I was fair to Hoffmeister and in that our opinions will continue to differ.

I will take the opportunity to add that I am completely satisfied that that issue has been properly dragged out and this will be my last mention of that issue. Again, not that that should be of much concern to you but atleast you can rest knowing that I will drop the matter.

Good day.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 07, 2000.


Michael,

I suppose Ted Hoffman had high expectations for Yourdon. In Ted's opinion, a person with Yourdon's years of IT experience simply could not draw the "doom" conclusion. Were I an IT expert, I might have an opinion one way or another.

You may have chosen to question Ted in the same manner I questioned Ed. In my experience, both respond fairly well to civil inquiries. You did take a rather sharp tone with young Hoffman, and the threads devolved into chest thumping.

The key to finding a middle ground is to make an honest attempt to understand another's position. Consider Ted's position before you decide to challenge it. Ask him politely to make the case. You may eventually reject his argument, but you will gain insight into his position. You may also gain a measure of respect, and this greatly eases the challenge of discourse.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 07, 2000.


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