How Long Until...

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

We have experienced January 1, 2000. I think most rational people will agree that nothing of any significance occurred with respect to the "Y2K Bug" on that date.

Now, we are told that the bug is latent -- that it will manifest itself in manifold ways that may be too subtle to see now. The "Doomer" camp insists that the bug will ultimately be detected, but provide varying dates by which this will occur. Since the date is inevitably "in the future", the Doomers can never be wrong.

However, I think that rational people would agree that the Bug (if there really is a significant one) must manifest itself by a date certain.

My point: people need finality. We also like to have our opinions vindicated (or, if we are wise and they are discredit, to learn from such mistakes).

My proposal: We rename this Board TimeBomb 2000.5. We will all suspend judgment until this point. If, by June 30, 2000, nothing of any significance has occurred, all unrepentant (as of post January 1, 2000) Doomers will state, in bold face letters, that they are wrong. On the other hand, if, by June 30, 2000, something of material significance (I suppose a recession or other significant disruption) has occurred as a direct result of Y2k, then we unrepentant Pollies (of which I have been one for 1.5 years) will state that they are wrong.

However, to properly do this, all regular attendees of this Board now must agree to return on or around that date -- if things start to go against your side (one way or the other) you can't quit.

Fair? If people accept this, I'll sign off and come back and see you all then.

-- Just Asking (JustAsking@hotmail.com), January 06, 2000

Answers

Just Asking....I assume you are blind and deaf...why should we wait till June when the fan is starting to turn brown now. If you want to stick your head in the sand till June be my guest. FOR me I think I'll stick around and keep my eyes posted. I was evacuated in 79 because of TMI (WHILE THE NRC WAS SINGING DON'T WORRY BE HAPPY). When you get played for an idiot once you'll never be the same.

-- survive-man (survive@dot.com), January 06, 2000.

Just Asking: sign off regardless

-- Dzog (dzog@plasticine.com), January 06, 2000.

Just Asking:

Are you for real? Haven't you learned anything here?

Why don't you just propose--for finality's sake (human comfort)--that the voice of authority is right? Events have proved otherwise here...

Do you STILL need someone to tell you "when the bug is fixed" when even THEY don't really know?

Your intent is to micromanage a global problem to suit your schedule...grow up and face reality.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 06, 2000.


That's good. Lets wait til June 30. And if you're wrong, you won't be able to admit you're wrong since every thing will be off line.

-- Snip d' snapper (Greasertoller@hotmomma.com), January 06, 2000.

Nope - no can do, Just Asking. First of all, NOTHING is fair in love, war, or Y2K forums - and proposals are simply not done! "People Need Finality" - man, next you'll be saying it will bring us all "closure." You've been in one too many counseling sessions.

Second, I don't need any vindications of my opinions because they are my beliefs, which I'm not afraid to stand up for. And since you can offer no real forgiveness, why should any of us repent of anything? You aren't a Polly - you are a snob. That would explain your use of the words "properly," "must agree," and "can't quit."

Fourth, you make it way too easy when you say "if" people accept this, you'll sign off and come back. Most of us probably don't want you back...

And fifth, I'm HATE decimals!!

See ya'!!

-- Ric (ice163@worldnet.att.net), January 07, 2000.



Nope - no can do, Just Asking. First of all, NOTHING is fair in love, war, or Y2K forums - and proposals are simply not done! "People Need Finality" - man, next you'll be saying it will bring us all "closure." You've been in one too many counseling sessions.

Second, I don't need any vindications of my opinions because they are my beliefs, which I'm not afraid to stand up for. And since you can offer no real forgiveness, why should any of us repent of anything? You aren't a Polly - you are a snob. That would explain your use of the words "properly," "must agree," and "can't quit."

Fourth, you make it way too easy when you say "if" people accept this, you'll sign off and come back. Most of us probably don't want you back...

And fifth, I really HATE decimals!! (2000.5, indeed!)

See ya'!!

-- Ric (ice163@worldnet.att.net), January 07, 2000.


...i also hate it when i hit submit too soon....

-- Ric (ice163@worldnet.att.net), January 07, 2000.

There's a fly in the gravy here. Take any given gross failure of software, of hardware, of process, of system, of mechanism, of manufacturing plant, of telecom, of transport -- some of which are being reported here. Unless one is involved in the fix, the only way this failure can be seen is from the outside. And from the outside such a failure is indistinguishable from the ordinary failures endemic in this technological society. A failure initiated by a Y2K-based fault is no different from any other failure. There won't be any NEW failures, never seen before.

The proprietor of any Y2K-related failure has nothing to gain by publicizing its cause. Why should he? He has to fix it anyway. If he can't fix it, or fix it soon enough, too bad. If he can fix it, so much the better. This is nothing new.

We aren't going to get a 'body count' on Y2K errors. Not now. Maybe not ever.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), January 07, 2000.


Ain't it great!If nothing happens by 6-30-00 the polly's win.If it is teotwawki then the polly's still win because there won't be anything to post on.What a strategy!win---win

-- paul mika (tigerpm@netscape.com), January 07, 2000.

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001AdE

[snip]

Government's top Y2K expert predicts failures for weeks, months

July 30, 1999
Web posted at: 12:06 PM EDT (1606 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Don't expect the Year 2000 technology problem to disappear after Jan. 1. President Clinton's top Y2K expert said failures could extend well beyond New Year's Day.
 

Although John Koskinen predicts there will be a national "sigh of relief" in the early hours of Jan. 1, he also anticipates scattered electronic failures over the first days, weeks and even months of the new year.

Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said in an interview Thursday with The Associated Press that some failures may not become obvious until the end of January, the first time after the date rollover that consumers review their monthly bank statements, credit-card bills and other financial paperwork.

"It won't evaporate until after that," Koskinen said. "Clearly, this is more than a January 1 problem." But he also slightly hedged his predictions: "None of us are really going to know until after January 1."

Unless repaired, some computers originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year will not work properly beginning in 2000, when those machines will assume it is 1900.

Some computer systems may shut down quickly with obvious failures, and others may gradually experience subtle problems or degraded performance that may take weeks to notice.

"The more difficult problem will be where the system looks like it's doing it correctly but it's doing it all wrong," Koskinen said.

Some failures won't be recognized until the work week starts Monday, Jan. 3, as employees return to their offices and turn on their computers for the first time.

Repaired computers also will need to recognize 2000 as a leap year, even though most years ending in "00" don't need to adjust for Feb. 29, he said.

A new $40 million Information Coordination Center being organized down the street from the White House will operate until March, sharing information about failures with states, federal agencies, corporations and foreign governments.

[snip]



-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), January 07, 2000.



http://cnn.com/SPECIALS/weblinks/hln/y2k/part1/index.html

[snip]

Companies shouldn't expect all Y2K problems to show up on January 1.

According to Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah), "It's going to take several months for the whole thing to play out. And if we are in trouble, it will have to cascade and build over a period of several months and we won't really know until March or April of 2000."

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), January 07, 2000.


"rational people would agree that the Bug (if there really is a significant one) must manifest itself by a date certain."

Nope, not if by "rational people" you mean people with experience on computers. Having worked on them for over 25 years and on Y2k since about 1994, I know that the first Y2k bug in my experience would have hit in 1995, and the last will probably hit around 2005. We are certainly seeing them now, and we are at an unknown point in a curve of failures.

The curve is skewed by the reporting delay. Failures that happened in the first days of 2000 are still in the process of being reported up the chain of command. Many have not yet been recognized by the people using them, because the errors are in long-term corruption that does not cause runs to abort.

The ship is scraping the iceberg now ...

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 07, 2000.


Just Asking, your proposal is meaningless because you will be dead in six months.

-- (bye@bye.ja), January 07, 2000.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ