In simple terminology, could any of you please tell me if you think the stock market is going to crash and WHEN or how much longer do you think it would be? I know nothing about the stock market other than you can have a depression if it crashes, so please use words that are simple. Thanks.

-- Kim Scaramastro (kim@antipas.org), January 05, 2000

Answers

Yes.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 05, 2000.

dinosaur, you say "yes." Do you have an idea about when? May a few months, weeks? What is your opinion and if it does, will there be a depression? Thanks again.

-- Kim Scaramastro (kim@antipas.org), January 05, 2000.

It's going to crash a few minutes before you take your money out.

-- (there@hows.that), January 05, 2000.

I am sure Gary North---the savior to many of this board--is writing a scenario as we speak. By all means, keep your eyes open and stock up on beans, rice and guns.

-- Badco (dealing@the preacher.com), January 05, 2000.

Crash ,, within two weeks 9000 by feb. 7000 by july. Gold 187.00$ by may 99 and gold 800 by dec 99.

-- fred (fred@net.com), January 05, 2000.

I don't have any money in the stock market. That is the same as gambling. Do you think there will be a depression?

-- Kim Scaramastro (kim@antipas.org), January 05, 2000.

Alice? Hitting the Schnaps again?

-- Badco (uhhuh@uhuhuh.com), January 05, 2000.

I just posted under a previous thread--I did not see your question till now.

The answer is--YES, at least for the NASDAQ 100. Proof is at the site www.wavechart.com

Time frame is VERY SOON--perhaps next few days.

DOW does NOT now show a crash wave formation.

NOTE that last October, the DOW was in an EXACT crash wave, yet it was miraculously "resurrected" (by TPTB)? on Oct. 18/99.

Whoever said today(perhaps jokingly)on this board that Greedspin was going to take turns bailing out the DOW and Nasdaq may have been very prophetic!

-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), January 05, 2000.

I'm kinda depressed right now, actually.

-- (there@hows.that), January 05, 2000.

Kim,

Yes, No, Yes, Yes, Maybe, Ummmm

-- (I'm@pol.ly), January 05, 2000.

Kim, no one knows the answer to your question. However, we have come full circle and paper will be sold over the years till it finally reaches bottom. We will not know the bottom until we see all the events going into it. In this market it will be 2-3 years before it scrapes that threshold. A huge rally will follow and the another steep decline and may take many many years to recover again. This is only one of many scenarios. Buy when it looks the worst and wait for the rally and get out. Easier said than done.

-- redman (redman@aol.com), January 05, 2000.

Kim:

I don't know whether to take you seriously or not! Your innocence will invite the kindness of some, the abuse of others. Here's hoping you have the wisdom to see the information from the bait.

Try asking yourself COULD A DEPRESSION HAPPEN? instead of WILL A DEPRESSION HAPPEN? When? is a fair question that no one can accurately answer.

Look at historical records. Do some hardcore research. Search the internet for historical records of events and details surruounding ALL stock market crashes around the world.

Asking for advice without being willing to learn for yourself is asking for tragedy. Flint will give you a story about some doomers who blindly followed Gary North's advice and now are upset. Remember that any input/advice is just REFERENCE MATERIAL for you. The responsibility for the decision is yours.

Good luck.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 05, 2000.

After the crash, the depression begins. Inevitable.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 05, 2000.

Kim--check out this site http:\\bookofeli.com There's a very interesting piece on why the market will soon crash and why Y2K may be a stimulus to such an event. The author uses a scientific approach based on past history to show how ominously similiar 1929 looks to the present market. Check it out.

-- time traveler (pbeg1@prodigy.net), January 05, 2000.

Wow -- I didn't know you can have a crash on the one (Dow) and not one on the other. I really don't know anything about this stuff -- it just seems the whole economy is riding on it. It looks like some say a crash can be any day -- I will have to look things up. I have spent a lot of time researching about y2k and I came to my own decisions. We are very happy that living in California where there are earthquakes, we are now prepared to not only help ourselves, but our neighbors also. I thank you all for your answers. I will check out that wave chart too. Thanks again.

-- Kim Scaramastro (kim@antipas.org), January 05, 2000.

I'm sorry -- I am for real, believe it or not. I looked at the wave chart and don't have the slightest idea what that means. Also, what is TBTP mean? Sorry -- I'm not really stupid, just ignorant. Thanks

-- Kim Scaramastro (kim@antipas.org), January 05, 2000.

Better yet Kim, and in all seriousness, broaden your horizons with that research. Visit a library and read publications that are bound to truth via various laws NOT APPLICABLE on the internet.

What you have here is the Misinformation Superhighway. Just look at all the scared sheep that 2000 meant doom and gloom.

-- Professor B.Company (johnny@shootingstar.com), January 05, 2000.

Yes.

Suggest you read up on history of last time (1929) and previous outings (ever since market economies started). And a bit of long- cycle economics (at least find out about Kondratiev and a little about chaos theory).

When you've done that, you'll understand why "when?" is the toughie. Find the answer, and you'll be very rich.

One simple way to explain it is that the economic lifetime of a human being is today about 65 years (from first adult interactions with the economy at about 15 years to death or placing ones affairs in other hands by age 80). Therefore society is capable of avoiding the sorts of troubles experienced in the previous 65 years of living memory, and is stuck in some sort of quasi-repeating cycle of mass mistake- making on a timescale (today) of circa 70 years. And it's 70 years and some months since 1929. Those who have forgotten their history (the majority) are about to repeat it, or some approximation thereto.

One warning: "history doesn't repeat, it just tends to rhyme". And markets are most likely to crash when fewest are expecting it.

-- Nigel (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), January 06, 2000.