Ed Yourdon: Does HE even buy it?

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I've been watching Ed for years. I must say that when I first read his book about the demise of the American software industry I was at first very angry, then amused, then saddened that so many people could believe this load of rubbish. It is a testament to the fact that most of the world is uninformed about computers. Charlatans can have a field day and a fat wallet in such an environment. Then came the Y2K "crisis". Really, people, Ed's predictions are SO far off base at this point, that he must really be relegated to a nonexistent place in this industry. Can't we all just forget about this guy? If you want a good laugh, read the reviews of his books at Amazon.com. He's a man without ideas, without a place, and hopefully out of this industry in the new millenium...

-- john gianelli (john_gianelli@hotmail.com), January 05, 2000

Answers

Y2K bug prophet warns next few weeks crucial

-- It ain't over (till@its.over), January 05, 2000.

John, you're pretty much right, and it makes me sad. As one time, Ed was a respected design guru and had some sharp things to say. Really, I think what may have happened was that he tried to ride the 'structured design' pony/cash cow too long. It seemed like that as the industry went more object oriented, he was left at first trying to shoehorn his old ideas around a new concept. Then, he embraced doomerism whole hog ('American Programer' then 'Time Bomb'). Unfortunately, he's wasted basically a decade on this crap. Object oriented programming grew up, scalable internet software has been needed and developed, and neat new tools like Java came along. And this is just scratching the surface... Ed has had nothing substantive to say about real issues affecting real architects and developers for quite a while now.

I hope when he does crawl out of the bunker he'll decide to do some real work once more. Hanging out with nutty sleaze like Gary North hasn't helped him in the slightest.

-- DH (dh100@netscape.net), January 05, 2000.


Why not start your own Greenspun forum called Punish the Doomers? You can have categories named for all your favorite doomers and let people post their ugly remarks in each one.

-- Vengeance (is.mine@sayeth.?), January 05, 2000.

It ain't over till...oh wait, it IS over. What makes anyone think that the same logically-challenged, paranoid people that said that there would be catastrophic failures in the days following rollover will give up now. They are still desperately clinging to the hope that they will be vindicated. Give it up people. I spent all last year hearing from my doomer friends that I was an idiot that DGI and that I would be begging for food and fighting off mobs of crazed looters right about now. Cries of "Just wait, its still coming" are sounding more and more pathetic as each day passes."

-- Mike (laughing@the.hysteria), January 05, 2000.

.....All of those who only post in an attempt to kick someone when they're down simply disgust me. Have you no shred of decency to your character, or is it the character itself that you lack?

-- Patrick (pmchenry@gradall.com), January 05, 2000.


John,

So where were you a year ago or are all your keen insights after the fact?

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), January 05, 2000.


I believe everyone is putting too much blame on the authors who created this myth and not enough blame on those who made it possible; The people who bought it! Adolph Hitler, Mussolini, Lenin all would have been as harmless as spam lambs if it weren't for millions of people who were willing to be brainwashed. The real danger is what Lenin called the Proletariat. The mindless sheep who had numbers but no power, who could be convinced of anything as long as there was a promise of empowerment. Those who fell for this Y2K nonsense are the same type of people Hitler brainwashed into thinking the Jews were the cause of the collapse of Germany. They are the same people that Lenin used for his "workers utopia". This is a dangerous thing, not to be taken lightly.

I submit to you the cause of this hysteria is the inability of the average American to discriminate between truth and lie. The more preposterous the lie, the more some people are willing to believe it. Unfortunately, this is not a new thing. It is disappointing and frightening that in modern day America, the fodder exists for another holocaust. If an uncharismatic nitwit like Gary North can gain this much of a following, God help us when the next Hitler comes down the pipe.

Sincerely, Jeff

-- Jeff Williams (trimmer_cc@hotmail.com), January 05, 2000.


DH; If you haven't figured out that an object oriented programming language IS an attempted method of forcing structured design upon a programmer, you don't understand either concept.

Best to leave such topics to those who understand them.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 05, 2000.


Very interesting responses to this post. Can't quite figure out why you are saying it though? Maybe it's just me, but somehow those folks you are denigrating, both Ed and Gary provided information about what could happen over a period of time. Sometimes months and years into the potential future.

I don't know which world you folks are in, in my world, it's only been five days since the "event" transpired. A little early to be castigating someone just yet. Let's give this a little to time to play out, OK? Keep your eyes open, nothing real bad has happened on a global scale, thank goodness for that.

Unless of course, it's happening to YOU, can't claim with any first hand knowledge, that any of the occurences happening regularly now, are any different from what always happens daily.

My guess is that we are feeling a few extra "cuts" about now, I'm liable to prep a little more soon, especially if the bleeding from these cuts start getting closer to my home.

-- Michael (michaelteever@buffalo.com), January 05, 2000.


Hi, guys,

Why did you not declare your positions prior to 1/1/00?

And I'm interested to understand how you seem to know that there will be no significant repercussions, say, in the coming weeks, from possible supply chain problems.

-- eve (123@4567.com), January 05, 2000.



Hi, eve!

.....I'm with you. They were too wishy-washy to take a position. You're right, it's not over by a long shot.

-- Patrick (pmchenry@gradall.com), January 05, 2000.


Hi, Patrick!

Yeah, the people above love the ad hominem, yet don't seem to understand rational discourse. And they don't even seem to care that they just shoot themselves in the foot this way; that in essence they implicitly concede the argument by focusing on the personal attack.

And note that they have finally declared "positions", now that it's post 12/31, but have no explanations for them.

-- eve (123@4567.com), January 05, 2000.


Folks, I've been here on and off since early last year laughing at the doomers.

-- DH (dh100@netscape.net), January 06, 2000.

Lars, Eve, Patrick - there are lots of new sigs showing up here, claiming they knew it all along. Like I said in December - after WWII, every Frenchman claimed he fought in the resistance. Wait till you're sure of the result, then jump on the winning side and hope no one notices.

However, since it's only January 6th, they might yet be surprised. We'll know how bad the damage is by March or so. Right now, it's WAY too early.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 06, 2000.


DH,

Impeccable reasoning and logic!

Oh yes, and while you're laughing, be sure to vary the intonation and rhythm. That way you might actually be able to pass it off as an argument to your peers as well.

-- eve (123@4567.com), January 06, 2000.



bw,

I couldn't agree more. And since, in general, many sound alike, do you think it's just, say, a few people using dozens of different handles?

-- eve (123@4567.com), January 06, 2000.


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