Can anybody please tell me how serious this stock crash is and if it might be connected to "you know what"?

Inquiring minds want to know:)

-- curious_george (curious@hotmail.com), January 05, 2000

Answers

What crash ?.

Do you mean the dow being up 125 points right now ?

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), January 05, 2000.

The biggest point to keep in mind is persepective. Because the major indexes are so high any drop Looks bad. The real question is the percentages. A 1-2 percent drop looks scary but is normal market action-reaction. A normal correction may drop to around 10 percent (give or take) before continuing back. There is a lot of dynamics a work to make this market very volatile, not the least of is where is all the foreign money going (going into US or out of US). If the world markets (ie Japan) look like they are in recovery mode then they will likely take money out of US to invest locally.

Today's action (dow up, Nasdaq down) looks like yesterdays moves made some dot.com gamblers rethink their strategy. Money appears to be moving out of techs and into the standard big firms. The ones with capital and products and suprise Earnings.

It is not even a correction unless it continues to fall. January and February look like shakey monthes. A correction major or otherwise would be seen as very healthy and could set the stage for a another big run-up IMHO.

Always exciting watching the bets placed and the wheel turned.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), January 05, 2000.

Just curious, Curious---are you for serious???? Nothing to worry about at all---this is not a crash and not even a correction. However, I am waitng till I put another penny into this monster.(buy low sell high)

FAB

-- FAB (bfb@FAB.com), January 05, 2000.

Dont sweat it curious. A nice 10-20 percent reduction in the nasdaq would be a good thing. Gets all the day-traders, margin traders, out of the market. The DOW going up is also a healthy thing, many of these companies are reliable solid performers who have been overlooked because they dont have triple digit growth like the qualcoms, amazons etc. Look long term and don't sweat it.

-- schmidt, dan (4735@yahoo.com), January 05, 2000.

Please. The market is topsy-turvy right now and it is anyone's guess as to what will happen next.

-- market watcher (Cantdoit@nomail.com), January 05, 2000.

Sure nobody knows. Taking profits to cover expenses related to y2k preps, holiday spending and end of the year property taxes.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), January 05, 2000.

Squid,

You're implying that smart money is bailing out of places that haven't posted a profit and are priced purely upon speculation to reinvest in places that have realistic price to equity ratios, have real products and actually turn a profit?

Gloom & Doom! Gloom & Doom! It's TEOTWAWKI for a lot of folks!

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 05, 2000.

Mr Wildweasel:

No, I am mearly postulating that since all the indexes were not moving in the same direction there is a strong likelihood that a. money is going out of what is going down, and b, money is going into what is going up.

If this seems complicated let me know and I will attempt to simplify even more.

sarcasm mode OFF.

I didn't not say that this market move was the end of the world. And please idientify the sentence that was doom and gloom. It is my personal belief that a correction here, especially in the internet stocks, would be a NORMAL and HEALTHY exercise. If you believe that stocks only and always move in one direction then you are certainly entitled to any belief. I was simply added my opinion in answer to the question above.

"stocks tend to fluctuate."

I guess if you don't have a rational point you can always label the opposition as "doom and gloom," that way there is no effort required on your part.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), January 05, 2000.

It might well be serious. I couldn't help noticing that the FTSE 100 closed down 160 points at 6666 on the first day of Y2K trading in the UK. Could this point to an imminent visitation from the beast?! Or is it Beast?

regards

Spitfire Maguire

-- Spitfire Maguire (bill@blighty.net), January 05, 2000.

Could be connected to the fact that the market does this every year. Try breathing into a paper bag.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 06, 2000.

Yeh, I certainly remember Nasdaq tanking like a hot comet last year, NOT. This is not looking like the "January Effect" that I have come to know and love. The December run-up was partly based on Huge tech capital spending post y2k. Now there is all this rate hike talk and expectations of a slowdown. More going on beneath the surface than normal tax selling.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), January 06, 2000.

Servant -

Would be interested to see your facts in support of that statement. First week of January traditionally has a 10% correction in the Nasdaq (or any major index)? I guess I missed that one.

Squid -

WW forgot the smiley, methinks. He tends to be a bit on the sarcastic side, 'cept when he tells us to "check six" (which is always good advice). It is indeed TEOTWAWKI (aaarrrggghh, I actually used that "soooo last year" term) for all the folks who just "knew" that techs would simply keep piling up those astronomical P/Es and selling on potential rather than actuals.

I recently heard a caller to a radio show ask the "financial host" about Qualcomm and compare it to buying AT&T way back when. The host almost laughed, but was then very polite in his reply that Qualcomm is not AT&T, that there will never be a "Ma Qualcomm", and that the only real similarity between the companies is that they have something to do with phones. QCOM is a good company, but their stock is way overbought. Pity the poor folks (hopefully not too many "widows and orphans") who bought it at 200, and that analyst who started coverage with a target of 1000 (250 after the split).

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 06, 2000.

My apologies, sort of shot from the hip on that one. Seems an awful lot of New??? Pollies screaming louder than ever. I get that image in my mind of Kevin Bacon in Animal House, right before the crowd runs him over.

Everyone watch your six, even a recession with the amount of debt we are of collectively holding is a scary prospect.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), January 06, 2000.