Major Computer Systems Failing

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

But hey, that's yesterdecade's news. Major computer systems (and minor ones) have always been failing. They do it in a staggering fashion; spread out over time and distance they are resolved and worked around. That's why the Y2K doom hypers need to give it up. Let me go on written record on this board, so those who persist in hyping doom can have their chance to ridicule me later:

THE FAT LADY SANG ON Y2K DOOM A LONG TIME AGO because the nature of date-sensitive problems is to appear over months and years before and after 01/01/2000, and because date-sensitive issues return annoying results but do not typically crash systems. When systems do crash, there is usually a work-around. Believe me, the world didn't get through Y2K because all that new code was perfect. We got through because major problems occurred and will occur spread out over time.

Lots of computer problems left. Zillions. Lots of stuff craps out every day. Lots works. The ONLY thing that ever gave Y2K any credence was the notion of widespread SIMULTANEOUS failures. I know those of you who have invested a lot in preparation feel let down. But all the preparation you did will hold you in good stead if there is some other disaster, so buck up. Just don't make dunces of yourselves pretending future recessions/depressions/wars/power outages/etc./etc are Y2K, and that Y2K will REALLY HAPPEN REAL SOON NOW.

And for the really, really, diehards: Clip 'n Save this and give me my comeuppance in a year, or whatever your end-point is.

If I'm wrong, I will be on record, and I WILL admit it. I will also be begging for use of your preps so you will be able to tell me the story about the grasshopper and the ants.

In the meantime, I'm enjoying this zoo of human nature, including mine, of course.

-- Jim Thompson (jimthompsonmd@attglobal.net), January 04, 2000

Answers

Hey, Doc, I got this pain right here in my neck....

-- Ric (ice163@worldnet.att.net), January 04, 2000.

Fascinating times eh?

Delighted we didn't have a global heart attack. Cancer now... there's a concept.

Observing... over time.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 04, 2000.


Isn't this the guy who said he took it seriously himself once, but then relaxed and changed his views?

Ah, the enthusiasm of a recent convert! And the same desperate need to make everyone share his own views :). If it's no problem, why doesn't he just take off? Doesn't he have a life?

Sorry - stupid question! If he did have, he wouldn't be trying to find meaning in bothering us...:)

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), January 05, 2000.


The Fat Lady never sang on Y2K. She was starting to get warmed up when she was gagged and beaten by the media, stuffed in a bag and dumped in the Hudson River. She crawled out just in time for the Millennium Bash in DC, where they got her drunk on spiked punch and she passed out. She woke up with a sore throat from breathing chemtrails, and a hangover that will last all year. There will be no more singing from her anytime in the near future.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), January 05, 2000.

No Mr Whitley, I never said I used to take it seriously and then converted. I have always taken Y2K seriously--like any other issue to be solved. I never thought it would cause any serious damage, and for two years or more I have gone on written record saying the doomsayers are over-reacting.

-- Jim Thompson (jimthompsonmd@attglobal.net), January 05, 2000.


What the hell does a doctor know about programming anyway? If you think you can figure out a pain in the ass like Y2K, then you must be a proctologist!

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), January 05, 2000.

For what it's worth, I think the most immediate concern during "the roll" was infrastructure/utilities. Pretty hard to miss that the lights have gone out, that the gas and water are flowing, or that the dial tone never came back. These are the problems that would be noticed most quickly, and the ones that are probably the most dependant on embedded technologies. Big problem is the simultaneous nature of failuer. We seemed to have dodged this bullet.

Now we shift to the more insidous problems. Banking, supply chains, manufacturing (some embedded issues), trade, cash flows. Not as immediate, but potential problems that can lead to a slow death, the death by a thousand cuts. Pro here is that they are more spread out, not happening all at once. Con is that they could be quite widespread, and hidden until quite a bit of damage is done. Like driving on a low tire, by the time the sidewall blows out it's too late. I don't think these problems will be as serious as the infrastructure could have caused, but still way too soon to be proclaiming death of the bug.

sparky (more doomer than polly, just ask my polly spouse)

-- sparky (lights@are_my.business), January 05, 2000.


Meant to say it would be pretty hard to miss if the gas and water AREN'T flowing...

too late to be lurking...

sparky

-- Eyell Makedo (lights@are_my.business), January 05, 2000.


I was part of a Y2K remediation team for 2 years and I want to endorse what Jim Thompson has said. Don't endorse on theory, feeling, or belief endorse it because of what I have seen and experienced.

As to the death by papercuts:

There is always the risk that something has crept into the systems and goes undetected for a while. Especially when a new system is put into production. I know a company this happened to in a very big way.

Switched from a legacy system to a newer system. Didn't find out until about a month before their fiscal close that mucho undetected problems had been making a mess of their financial data. Took an army of folks to get stuff fixed and many a looooong night was had by all. The problem was fixed. The company closed their books at fiscal end. (The system had to stay running while it was being fixed and it was.)

Problems are always lurking in systems. They are not beyond fixing. We will not see any major problems caused by 'lurking problems'.

-- Chris Josephson (chrisj62954@aol.com), January 05, 2000.


Jim,

Sparky, above, brought out a crucial point:

Supply chains.

Don't you think that it could take some time for possible Y2K-related problems in the supply chains (often spanning the globe) to surface? If you agree, how has that affected your outlook?

-- eve (123@4567.com), January 05, 2000.



Hey Dr. Thompson:

I am a nurse and let me tell you about these supply chains right now. As you know, we've been decimated by this influenza epidemic. Try to get a ventilator, croup tent, or anything you might need on a crash! We were bagging people today by hand for lack of supplies.

Our only place we could find ANYTHING is in North Carolina and do you know why everyone is scared to death right now? The supplier said their computers were having a "little problem" being convinced what year it is!

Now we are turning away patients because we don't have any beds and you have the nerve to say "buck up." You, my dear physician, should put a few of YOUR own bucks up and get me a ventilator or tent for some poor little guy who is finding out the hard way that Y2K really is an event.

Sorry for the ferocity, but you know how much we nurses want to tell you Doc's how we really feel..so, Clip n'Save THIS in your end-point!

...and have a really, really nice day real soon now...

-- Jinny (seventyX7@att.net), January 05, 2000.


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