Hang Seng index down over 1000 points in first 5 minutes of trading

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000104/bd1.html

-- Dragnet (just@the.facts), January 04, 2000

Answers

Blood bath slows. Now only -1,032 at 10:23 pm est

-- Scotty (blehman202@aol.com), January 04, 2000.

Japan down 4.06%, but the last update was an hour and a half ago. They're stuck, frozen, what?

-- Dzog (dzog@plasticine.com), January 04, 2000.

They're at the sushi bar.

-- Me (me@me.me), January 04, 2000.

Ewww, it's ugly.
Mexico was down 5.69% today, too...

HangSeng down 1131.67 or 6.63% right now, Japan down 771.79 or 4.06%:

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Iccch.

-- It's Me (Not@here.com), January 04, 2000.

Forget fox hunting, watching their financial system getting dumped on is the real sport of kings.

-- Dzog (dzog@plasticine.com), January 04, 2000.

This is odd. Have those markets been up like the NASDAQ? I don't think so. If the safe haven money was leaving US equities and going home it seems like it would be heading there. That money has to go somewhere. There aren't too many places, it has to be banks (I doubt that) or possibly bonds in which case interest rates should drop and that should help the equities or GOLD.... I would like to guess the latter but I still sort of doubt that.

ONE OMINOUS POSSIBILITY.......LEVERAGE IS SOMEHOW UNWINDING....WHY ALL MARKETS DOWN AT ONCE? MARKETS ARE ZERO SUM...THAT STUFF HAS TO BE GOING SOMEWHERE...

-- William R. Sullivan (wrs@wham.com), January 04, 2000.

William, what do you mean by "leverage unwinding"? It sounds good.

-- Dzog (dzog@plasticine.com), January 04, 2000.

The money coming out of the market can go to pay back cash borrowed to play margin....

I got my fingers burned a couple years ago on that story....now the heat is really on.

Glad I got out and am sitting on real assets....my wife reading by out new woodstove.

-- out of cash (pay@dues.mar), January 04, 2000.

So this is the month of the Crash of the Millennium which Dr. Ravi Batra warned about?

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 04, 2000.

Hard to say at this point what's going on. No sense jumping to any unfounded conclusions. Au is sitting at around $282: Au Spot Price.

Where and since the U.S. markets have skyrocketed, late drops could be considered a healthy "correction". (Takes some of the decline fear pressure off).
Wait to see where the indexes go o'er the next few days,as an indication of the year ahead. [Nevermind the Y2K error -supply chain interruptions yet to come, obviously unexpectedly]

Skittishness among traders is only a sign of their perspectives of reality.
You see, every stock buyer/ holder is hoping for the "Greater Fool" theory to propagate.

What this means is, that when you buy a stock, for ex., with NEGATIVE earnings for say, $200-/share, you are assuming, nay, hoping (extraordinarily foolishly I might add, such as trusting our debt-based fractional reserve system of the banking industry) a greater fool will be willing to pay yet a higher ridiculous price so that you may ... gain.

You can see where there's great room for the 'bubble' to be popped...

-- It's Me (Not@here.com), January 04, 2000.

Re. the earlier cited irrational "Bubble" (waiting for it to pop), and the The Greater Theory Fool approach:
- even when buying a stock at, say, 40 times projected earnings, it seems a prime example of such a notion (TGF). But when it comes to Tech stocks, buying them at 2-300 times PE, as is currently taking place, it is just plain FOOLISH. Regardless of Y2K, it is plain and simple nonsensical.
Sanity has to eventually set in, as the 'group' fervor mitigates.

Day traders and other forms of glorified gambling will have to pay the piper.

Cheers.

-- It's Me (Not@here.com), January 04, 2000.

It's not a zero sum game. Everyone really can win in the long-term (via the creation of tangible wealth.)

In a crash, money goes to "money heaven".

-- Me (me@me.me), January 04, 2000.

Sorry, typo:
Please read my mistakenly typed The Greater Theory Fool as the corrected form of,
The Greater Fool Theory.

Here's to hoping someone's more foolish than you, if you're in the market.

I believe, among other things, Y2K will adversely affect the supply chain and quash perpetuated earnings...

Ethically, remember that the stock market is a zero sum game.

-- It's Me (Not@here.com), January 04, 2000.

me: The sudden and complete destruction of wealth will cause men to weep openly. I'll be very sad to see those I know when they realize their invested dreams have evaporated and cannot be reclaimed. Right now they are extremely bullish and plan to stay in for the long haul. I think you're on track. I've been several months too early in my predictions. Looks like Dr. Ravi Batra will be vindicated.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 04, 2000.

The stock market, like the world, is *not* a zero sum game. Wealth can be and is created. But it is *not* created through speculative frenzies. These, contrary to appearances, destroy wealth by misdirecting capital (e.g. how much capital has been wasted on "thestreet.com"? lots)

-- Me (me@me.me), January 04, 2000.

Me, I beg to differ as things currently astaned.

Based on long term, ACTUAL earnings and performance, the stock market could have been more than a zero sum game. But such a system was abandoned in the 70's along with the gold standard. As it currently stands, it IS generally a zero-sum game, meaning for every gain there is an equal loss.
In fact, with co. stock offerings, financings, and insider info/ trading, it's less than that as a playing field goes. I've been in/ out of the game (now out), for some 15years.
Not pretty.

C'est la vie.

-- It's Me (Not@here.com), January 04, 2000.

dinosaur -

What is so very sad is the extent to which the 'talking heads' are perpetrating what might be the greatest fraud of all time on the unsuspecting (but greedy) public.

Giving them the benefit of the doubt, they do not realize the damage that is about to be inflicted on this country.

I was not being flippant when I told a stockbroker friend of mine that, when it crashes, lock the door to your office or better yet leave the building. I'm telling you, there are going to be brokers, 'analysts' and market commentators gunned down. It has happened before. This time will be worse.

-- Me (me@me.me), January 04, 2000.

It's me -

What I mean is simply that wealth is created. The infrastructure of the US is worth more now than 200 years ago. Ford is worth more now then the day it was founded.

As to present day 'shenanigans' (larceny) I'm sure we would be in complete agreement. Many will go to prison over what is now taking place. They are nothing more than con men.

-- Me (me@me.me), January 04, 2000.

Me wrote:

As to present day 'shenanigans' (larceny) I'm sure we would be in complete agreement. Many will go to prison over what is now taking place. They are nothing more than con men.

Well stated ('larceny'), but alas, I fear, inaccurate in the scheme of things.

If and when it gets to accountability, it's only the Lieberal (sic) lawyers who gain.
Very few of the actual perps seem to ever be legally prosecuted... just look at Bre-X, for starters (still in court, 3 years later, and still nary an instance of accountability-- the Banks are in deep themselves).

Anyway, all the best and keep employing that moral compass!
:*)

-- It's Me (Not@here.com), January 04, 2000.

It's my understanding that of course the Future's Market is ZERO SUM - there are two sides to every trade.

But the stock market is different. The issuer of the shares, Company X, took all your money for a stock certificate you hope to sell to someone later for more money than you paid for it.

-- Gregg (g.abbott@starting-point.com), January 04, 2000.

Gregg -

I believe your understanding is correct. Options never participate in the creation of wealth. My gain is, by definition, someone else's loss, and, far too often, vice versa (!)

-- Me (me@me.me), January 05, 2000.

Dzog,

If you buy a stock with borrowed money (on margin) you have to maintain a balance that is consistent with some percentage of the original purchase price of the stock plus any difference due to a drop in the price of the stock. If it goes up, you add nothing, if it goes down, you have to add the number of shares you bought multiplied by the loss in value. This means if you borrowed money to buy it and you now have none you have to sell the stock at a loss and cover the loss with your original percentage.

You are now really hosed because you lost borrowed money. There are supposedly a lot of second morgatges that have been invested this way.

-- William R. Sullivan (wrs@wham.com), January 05, 2000.

ZERO SUM GAME

The way the market is working now, money moves from one stock driving it's price down and into another pumping it's price up. Now it is true that money comes into the market and sometimes goes out but what is there is participating in a zero-sum game.

The stock market is a zero sum game much the way poker is. No money leaves the table unless a player gets out. The money there just circulates or goes to a winner. Relate that to stocks.

-- William R. Sullivan (wrs@wham.com), January 05, 2000.

When virtually EVERY stock index world wide is down, then where did the money go?

Zero Sum... ?? Looks pretty negative to me...

-- Carl (clilly@goentre.com), January 05, 2000.