OK Here it is Jan. 4 and the first full day back for many of us including IPE & NYMEX exchange trading on oil economics.

If there were some refining or oil sector problems that the major media is overlooking, surely some of us would be able to relate something. Anyone have anything?

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 04, 2000

Answers

For what it's worth, here is a Bloomberg report from this morning: Crude Oil Falls on Fading Concern About Y2K Supply Problems

London, Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell almost 5 percent, its biggest one-day drop in more than three weeks, after fears of supply disruptions from computer problems related to the millennial date change didn't come true.

Demand for oil rose at the end of 1999 as users stocked up to guard against possible disruptions if computers at pipelines and refineries couldn't distinguish 2000 from 1900. These fears were unfounded, as neither oil companies nor other industries, such as banks and airlines, faced glitches.

``Having no (computer) bug is extremely negative in the short term,'' said Shelley Mansfield, a broker at ADM Investor Services International Ltd.

Brent crude oil for February settlement was at $24.29 a barrel, after falling as much as $1.19, or 4.7 percent, to $23.89 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for February delivery was down 40 cents at $25.20 a barrel in electronic trading.

Oil prices had risen 6 percent during December, when buyers stocked up to ensure their needs would be met. Now, prices are retreating after reaching $26.15 a barrel in mid-December, which was the highest since the 1990-1991 Gulf War.

As concern about computer failures evaporated, other commodities considered havens from Y2K failures -- such as gold and silver -- also dropped. Gold for immediate delivery lost almost 3 percent, its largest decline in two months, to $281.05 an ounce and silver fell as much as 1.5 percent.

Warning

Last month, the United Nations and U.S. government officials warned that the Gulf Arab states, responsible for half the world's oil reserves, might not have adequately prepared for potential Y2K problems. The Gulf states passed into 2000 without disruptions at oil wells and pipelines, several oil ministries said.

Oil prices are being further undermined by warmer-than-usual weather in the U.S. and signs that the world's leading oil producers are increasing output, Mansfield said.

Temperatures are expected to be as much as 10 degrees Celsius above normal in the U.S. northwest and Midwest over the next 10 days and 4 degrees Celsius above normal in northwestern Europe, according to Massachusetts-based Weather Service Corp.

While demand for heating fuel weakens, producers who restrained output last year to end a global surplus may now be pumping more oil into the market.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' compliance with self-imposed production cuts fell to 70 percent in December, the Washington-based Petroleum Finance Corp. estimated.

OPEC

OPEC-designed cuts will expire on March 31. OPEC may decide at its meeting in March whether to raise output.

``There's a bit of concern about OPEC production levels,'' said Lawrence Eagles, an analyst at brokerage GNI Ltd. ``We're in for a couple of days of weakness that could turn into a couple of weeks.''

The drop in crude oil prices sent down oil stocks in Europe. BP Amoco Plc, the world's third-biggest publicly traded oil company, dropped as much as 32.5 pence, or 5.2 percent, to 590 pence in London. Shares of Royal Dutch Petroleum Co., which owns 60 percent of the Royal Dutch/ Shell Group, fell as much as 1.75 euros, or 2.9 percent, to 57.7 euros in Amsterdam.

Jan/04/2000 7:32

-- streamer (streamer@aol.com), January 04, 2000.

streamer!

Welcome to the forum. Maybe we're related.....

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 04, 2000.

A major pipeline closed down causing an export problem in Nigeria, where Shell again declared force majeure on Forcados loadings through January. The Forcados terminal handles 400,000 barrels per day of crude oil.

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002Csx

http://www.crbindex.com/news/story1905.html

-- Bruce (Here@barrel.there a barrel), January 04, 2000.