NOTE: The following list is for ISSUES/PROBLEMS surrounding the CDC.

As most of us are acutely aware the LACK of insurance availability for Y2000 issues complicates reporting of any problems. In an effort to gather a complete picture of all reported issues (whether Y2k or not), we should look at as much data as possible and then as logically as possible categorize them.

Issues to Date:

~ Spy Sats

~ New Delphi Electrical Fire

~ Nuclear Plants 5 (4/us 1/japan)

~ Banking, Denmarks Unidanmark

~ Nuclear Weapons Plant, Oakridge National Laboratory

~ IBM Data issues

~ Sporadic power outages

~ Sporadic power fluctuations (brown-outs, etc.)

~ Low Volume Rail Transportation

~ Power Plant Explosions

~ Head on Train Collision

~ LAs Burning Ball of Unidentified Fire

~ Funky Website Dates

~ Gold and Oil Future $ foible

Please add any information you have. Trend analysis in the days to come will allow a much clearer picture and ramifications of Issues (whether Y2K or not)

-- keeping a list (karlacalif@aol.com), January 03, 2000

Answers

Brownout--7 pm Dec. 31-~1 pm Jan 1, Allegany Power, Potter County, PA

-- Pamela (jpjgood@penn.com), January 03, 2000.

keeping, i have been cross posting as much as i can to a special listing michaelhyatt.com set up for bugs only. there haven't been too many extra posts so it may be easier to trend.

-- tt (cuddluppy@nowhere.com), January 03, 2000.

If you must keep a list, which may tend to make you worry, do this.

Set yourself an artificial criteria that ONLY ALLOWS ITEMS which the source (by that I mean the agency/business with the problem) willing attributes to a CDC issue. And keep your graph for atleast two work weeks BEFORE you draw any conclusions. Don't trouble yourself with keeping track of the obvious trivial problems like 'My ISP's web page has the wrong date.' It might even be a good idea to catagorize the problems you note and keep several graphs. What I am saying is STUDY what you are seeing, don't obcess upon it. Set aside a certain ammount of time each day and stick to only that ammount of time. DONT TRY TO FORCE THE OUTCOME. It might even help to form a small group of pollys/doomers (for lack of suitable terminology) to establish criteria as to what should and should not be included and let that inclusion process be democratic. Say a panel of 6... with ties getting tossed.

What I am saying is you want to do trend analysis. You don't need a list of every possible problem. You need a list of every positively CDC related problem. Keep the dates when the reports were made. Make a graph and watch to see if the problem grows over time and how it grows. Graph number of problems over days.

If we are entering a period of problems which feed problems which feed problems... Some I think call it 'cross cascading defaults'. Your graph will not be a straight line. It will increase at an exponential rate. WHich means that if today you documented 3 problems. Tomorrow you will see five or nine or thirty. If on the other hand problems are distribuited in a line across the graph, even if that line shows an upward climb. We might be able to reasonable expect the programmers to handle the problem. If the graph shows a downward sloping line, we are home free.

Now this is couched in laymen's terms so don't hit me with a bunch of corrections of simple terms to mathmatical terms, please. I know that it is very difficult to do such studies in a purely objective manner. Still given the right controls such studies are valuable.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 03, 2000.

SOLUTION: Only follow easy inhouse repairs, cause if insurance won't cover equipment loss, consultants, suits for y2k then you won't see any y2k problems that surpass the insurance criteria.

We do this in psychiatry all the time; when insurance stops paying for your kid's ADD treatment, we just call it "bipolar".

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 03, 2000.

Hokie... Howdy, and that from an old paranoid, type too boot. Took me nearly 20 years to get the psych's to let me off the bus. It is a good field but exasperatingly inexact, eh?

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 03, 2000.

Mike...in laymens terms, yes it is sound advice. The reason for my anlysis is strictly to have a certain amount of rationality (especially when kosky's spouting "the bugs been squashed.") The dates of any incidents are very important and definitely kept as part of the database.

TT....thanks, will check out Hyatts bug post!!

Hokie...point taken, that is why I am keeping information on all events!

-- (karlacalif@aol.com), January 03, 2000.